Not all economic indicators are in agreement on the state of the economy.

in economy •  3 years ago 


image.png

I mentioned how the NBER uses both GDP and GDI in its recession determination. The Philly Fed also has an indicator it made called GDPplus that is a composite of the two.

GDPplus tries to balance the two economic indicators and account for measurement error. If we relied on GDPplus we get a much different picture of 2022 so far.

Q1 GDPplus was 1.8%. Q2 is 1% so far (Q2 GDI isn't available yet).

I don't know if we are in a recession or heading into one, but as you can see not all economic indicators are in agreement on the state of the economy.


image.png

Real earnings have really taken a hit with inflation despite nominal earnings growth as inflation has outpaced wage growth. So people really aren't taking home more money than they were before.

Though if there is a silver lining here, the lowest decile income group actually had real earnings growth over this period. For the lowest earners, their wages have outpaced inflation. Since wages can be sticky, hopefully this growth sustains as inflation gets under control. It might help US inequality.

Authors get paid when people like you upvote their post.
If you enjoyed what you read here, create your account today and start earning FREE STEEM!