For some time I have been working with the above count which assumes wave 1 has completed, and we're now in a wave 2 with a gigantic wave 3 to follow that'll lead us into moon territory.
However, the wave 2 we're building looks very much like a triangle and you cannot have a triangle in wave 2. If we are in a larger term impulse (and I believe we are) then this triangle must be part of a wave iv as for instance in below charts.
This actually may make sense as the whole world is waiting for a break in order to go long, hang back and collect the profits. But it's never that easy. So, if we're breaking out and bitcoin has completed a triangle, then, Elliott wave wise we should return to the current levels which will demoralize an infinite amount of weak hands.
Should we go down first and make a new low, then the original count is still valid. In that case we'll go up in a straight line for some time to come after the breakout of the down sloping resistance line.
Both the total crypto market and the Huobi10 have already made such nice principled three wave corrections and are ready to rocket, in the same way bitcoin is when the wave 4 triangle scenario is correct.
After completing the first impulse up, bitcoin will then fall back to the start of that impulse, while the altcoins will hold up better creating a higher low that can be labelled into a subdivided wave ii in their case. Which then also makes sense as the altcoins have some ground to catch up.
Maybe it will drop
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You mean a big drop; back to $3000 and below?
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No. I don’t think so.
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This is something I am also wondering... perhaps we are not on wave 2 but on the 4th wave of the first so...why not, it can be a triangle...
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It looks very much like a triangle now. Also, the Huobi10 and the total crypto market seem to have made a first impulse up already, positioning themselves nicely for a major breakout. Anyway, you must buy the breakout when it happens.
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Hard to predict but we might drop to 6500-7000 usd where it starts the actual bull run...
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Possible, but no longer my preferred scenario. We'll see, things can change quickly.
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