Aussie (AUDUSD) is in a downtrend for the last few months, because of a lockdown in Australia and speculation regarding FED tapering which makes USD strong. However, lockdowns are expected to be removed in Australia in October, so economic activity is expected to go back to normal which can be positive for AUDUSD.
In fact, we have a very similar price action compared to last year, when market also topped in September and then bottomed through October and November after lockdowns were removed. So, can we see something similar this year? Indeed we can, but HSI (Hang Seng Index) is an issue here, however, in this video will show you a 40-50week cycle that can project end of a bear market on HSI.
At the same time we see COT data at extremes short positions, so sentiment net positions may change in weeks ahead which can cause a shift in sentiment.
AUDUSD Elliott Wave Analysis Video