The probability of any historical claim ("I saw ET") is the product of TWO factors: (1) the evidence; (2) prior probability.
The second tends to be neglected, and is in much of the present discussion.
It may be that ET exists in a nearby star system, and travels light years, over however many decades and at whatever cost, in order to dodge navy jets and imitate the AFLAC duck in grainy photographs.
What is the prior probability of some sort of supernatural explanation? A priori, I don't see why it would be less than that.
China or Russia having a drone that can drop 4 miles in less than a second? Since what, ten years ago?
Gross misperception on the part of numerous pilots?
None of these seem terribly likely, but I think ET probably comes near the bottom. And how do they always escape clear photography? (Like Bigfoot and the Lockness Monster?) That seems to be a pattern.
It's a UFO: Unindentified flying object. It can be anything...
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