Yesterday I decided to sit down and read a little bit about what's going on in the world. Why are the gas prices increasing so much? Then I read about Belarus who have brought thousands of refugees to the borders of Poland and now they are there, stuck in Belarus, as Poland don't want to allow them to enter their country (or the European Union). Adding to the problem is the fact that it is very cold and close to minus degrees in the area.
So, what's going on in the world?
First of all... one year ago, the gas prices were really low. COVID stopped almost everything, and so they need for natural gas (or fossil gas) reached a low point, also meaning that the price went down. But, then, before Europe really increased their needs again, Asia started to buy lots of cheap natural gas from the USA, so when the countries of Europe suddenly woke up, they had used a lot of their reserves, and they didn't get any cheap natural gas from the USA.
Further causing trouble was the fact that they expected the prices to go down again (so they didn't buy), but instead of decreasing, the prices went further up. So here we are, gas prices are in the sky and the reserves in many European countries are starting to feel empty. Of course, there is no emergency yet, but if we have a cold winter and the need for heating will increase a lot, then some countries might even get in trouble.
In the midst of this, Russia is a key figure. They have a lot of natural gas available, but it isn't in their interest to just send it through the gas pipes to Europe, because then the price will dump a lot, so it is better to sell a little at a higher cost.
It seems as if they have started, though, to send to Germany, and that should bring some comfort. But, then Belarus shows up and now Lukashenko might cause trouble. Do you know why?
Belarus can cause further trouble.
The Yamal pipeline is the main pipeline for bringing gas from Russia to Europe. It is delivering gas from the Yamal fields and the pipeline ends in Germany and in Austria. The only problem is that the pipelines is running through Belarus (and divided into two in Belarus). Now Lukashenko has said that if further sanctions are set forth against Belarus, then he will close down the Yamal pipeline, thus stopping the gas delivery from Russia to the rest of Europe.
So, what will be the fate of those refugees? Will the EU sanction Belarus, and thus maybe cause a further stop in natural gas delivery to Europe?
The world is interesting...