Tropical Cyclone Development Odds Grow Gulf of Mexico Flooding Rain Threat

Tropical Cyclone Development Odds Grow Gulf of Mexico Flooding Rain Threat

We continue to monitor disturbed weather that extends from the Gulf States & Florida southward into the Northwest Caribbean. Pressures are low all across this area and it is becoming increasingly apparent that low pressure is going to develop over the next 2 days in the NW Caribbean and head into the Gulf of Mexico. At the moment conditions remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone development however we are going to see conditions become more conducive Friday and over the weekend.

 A broad surface low centered near the coast of northeastern Belize
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and into
the Florida Straits.  Little development is expected during the
next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds and proximity to
the Yucatan Peninsula.  However, environmental conditions are then
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical
or tropical depression could form this weekend over the eastern or
central Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the Cayman Islands
during the next few days, and over much of Florida and the
northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. For more information on the
heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

The big issue here is not so much whether the system develops. At the moment the big issue is going to be heavy rains and in fact they could be unrelenting rains for much of next week across Florida & the Gulf States depending on track.

We may have a similar situation that occured last year with Hurricane Harvey only this time it will be further to the east across the Central & Eastern Gulf Coast. An upper trough gets trapped in between two upper highs, one on either side. There is nothing here to kick it our or move it along. The result could be days and days of rain on the order of at least 5 to 10 inches worth and likely more if this materializes. Most models seem to have the general idea here. Again rain is going to be the big deal here across the South. The northern jet stream keeps the moisture from moving up our way with a westerly flow aloft. However that will have its own weather systems that will be impacting our weather here so it won't exactly be picture perfect. The National Hurricane Center has raised the probability of tropical cyclone development to 60 percent.

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Posted from my blog with SteemPress : http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2018/05/23/tropical-cyclone-development-odds-grow-gulf-of-mexico-flooding-rain-threat/