https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/12/18/recession-economy-inflation/
No recession. Despite being ridiculed, looks like the White House was right that inflation was almost all supply chain strangulation and not a demand surge from licentiousness government spending and redistribution in reaction to Covid.
And so, also, it will turn on “credit where credit is due” about debt: If consumer interest rates come down for credit, especially for mortgages, the roaring economy is likely to be perceived by regular folks, and they’ll have a favorable view once they get psychologically habituated to the current prices.
I’ve heard folks say that even with low inflation, the high prices are a burden. No doubt. But I did see an analysis that showed that the median income today buys the same goods and services as the median income in 2019, plus has additional surplus left over.
That may seem to favor the caution from the left. But to coin another phrase, “so far, so good”. It was because the Fed could go so far into higher rates that the current good outcome was possible, and the outlook is good.
Quote from article:
“Ultimately, the economy would grow by a whopping 5.2 percent between July and September, stunning economists who had balked at forecasts in that ballpark. Pile on a string of encouraging inflation reports from late summer, and big Wall Street firms repeatedly slashed their odds of a recession.”
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