From lithium batteries, photovoltaics, new energy vehicles to chips, are these most popular industry tracks, in the eyes of foreign investors, are they also hot sweets and pastries?
At the very least, some new energy vehicles with excessively large gains and higher valuations have already begun to "get off".
After experiencing 7 times a year of madness, Tesla's stock has basically remained at a high level this year. Although the new energy vehicle track on which it is located is still optimistic, it is no longer the favored object of many institutions after a round of surge. Tesla's fundamentals are still improving, and it has been profitable for 8 consecutive quarters. Some institutions have begun to lighten their positions in advance:
Baillie Gifford is a legendary independent private partnership, especially good at decades of long-term investment, and is a major shareholder of many technology giants such as Amazon, Alibaba, and Tesla. Its flagship fund has a return rate of 373% in the past 5 years and a return of 717% in the past 10 years, far exceeding Berkshire Hathaway's 76%/189% performance in the same period. At the same time, its 5-year holding turnover rate has remained at around 20%, maintaining a relatively low level. It is an active growth stock buyer who has bought and held for a long time in a typical sense.
Thinking about the growth value of emerging technology companies in a cycle of more than 5-10 years is the winning secret for star fund companies such as Parkey to obtain excess returns. This institution has been buying Tesla since 2013, until it became Tesla's second largest shareholder in 2017, with a profit of more than 10 times for 7 years and a floating profit of more than 20 billion U.S. dollars. The longer you hold it, the more volatility you experience. Tesla's stock price fell by more than 30% 10 times during the holding of Berky's investment, but Berky said that it has never sold, and long-term holding has made it the institutional investor with the highest investment income in Tesla.
However, since 2020 the company has continued to reduce Tesla's holdings, and Berky has reduced its holdings from a peak of 7% to less than 2% at present. The person in charge declared that, on the one hand, the reduction was mainly due to the company's success in promoting the stock price rise and the current performance of the stock price; on the other hand, it also considered the possibility of continued price increases. Baiji Investment also said that the reduction is not a bearish track, and it has not completely liquidated its position, saying that it is still optimistic about NIO.N cars.
Even if the brokerage companies that have always been singing a lot have begun to change their tunes, JPMorgan Chase has given Tesla a "underweight" rating, emphasizing factors that are not conducive to revenue growth. Valuation is an important reason for institutions to be short: even after the recent retracement, Tesla’s expected valuation this year is still as high as 160 times, and the current market value is still as high as 690 billion US dollars, surpassing General Motors, Ford, and Toyota. The combined market value of automobiles and Volkswagen, and these traditional car manufacturers are also accumulating power, and their new energy vehicle sales are also catching up.
Baiji Investment stated that it rarely predicts short-term stock fluctuations and economic variables, and is more inclined to grasp the predictable trends and opportunities in the industry. This organization said that it is optimistic about computer communications, artificial intelligence, new energy and energy storage, gene sequencing and biopharmaceuticals in the long-term.
Not only did some get off the train at the right time, but there were also “players” who got on the train early. Before this round of the track market, many QFIIs have already sneaked into relevant stocks in advance, including the lithium battery industry chain, integrated circuits and solar energy. Focusing on these track industries from a global perspective is more able to reflect on the value of A-share companies in the global industrial chain.
From the perspective of the A-share market, many track stocks were "shared" by foreign investors in advance. Among the track stocks that have risen more than 20% since the second half of the year, 24 stocks have been favored by QFII: the best performer is the lithium ore concept Tibet Mining, which has risen 85% in just over a month. The stock has long been lurking in QFII. JPMORGAN CHASE BANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION, Swiss Jiasheng Bank’s own funds, and Credit Suisse (Hong Kong) are among its top five tradable shareholders, with a total market value of more than 500 million yuan at the end of the first quarter.
Another top gainer track stock, Maiwei shares, mainly produces solar cell screen printing production lines, which rose by 61% in the second half of the year. According to the latest interim report, many QFIIs have positions, such as JPMORGAN CHASE BANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION, UBS, Bill Gates Foundation and Macau Monetary Authority's own funds.
More well-known sovereign wealth institutions have deployed the photovoltaic industry chain one year in advance, and the rate of return is astonishing 7 times. Jinlang Technology, a supplier of grid-connected inverters for the photovoltaic industry chain, has been favored by the sovereign wealth fund Kuwait Investment Bureau since mid-2020, and its holdings have increased from less than 700,000 shares to the latest 2.7 million shares. The stock hit a record high from the middle of last year to July this year, with a maximum return of 722.66%.
Lanxiao convertible bonds, which have attracted attention in the field of lithium extraction in salt lakes, are track stocks with the highest shareholding ratio of QFII. JPMORGAN CHASE BANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and many other institutions emerged in the quarterly report, with a total shareholding ratio of more than 15%. The shareholding ratio of the 2020 annual report was once close to 20%. Calculated from the low point in April this year, the shareholding income of the stock has exceeded 1.3 times.
With the global concern about climate warming, the demand for new energy, especially photovoltaic solar energy, has soared, which also constitutes another major track that global capital pays attention to. Compared with the backwardness in the chip field, Chinese companies that have been cultivating in this field for many years account for the majority of the global share.
The surge in demand for photovoltaic power generation has increased the demand for solar panels. Twenty years ago, China’s solar equipment produced a very small share of the global share, but now, China has become the world’s largest producer of solar equipment. China's polysilicon production constitutes a considerable competitive advantage. Wacker Chemie, the largest solar-grade polysilicon producer in the West, pointed out that the energy cost of a Chinese manufacturer is 1/4 of that of its German factory.
China has drastically lowered the price of solar panels. The price has dropped by 70% in the past decade. The cost of solar power generation is already lower than that of fossil fuel power generation in many markets around the world. China's solar energy industry has matured, and polysilicon producers are in an advantageous position in international competition. It is very difficult for Western chasers to establish a new supply chain in a short period of time and at low cost. Western industry insiders predict that China's solar photovoltaic industry will still dominate in the next 3 to 5 years.
China's dominant position in the solar supply chain also makes it difficult for companies trying to rebuild solar panel factories in the West. Currently, most companies that cut polysilicon into wafers, package the wafers into batteries, and assemble the batteries into panels are in China. Even if the United States increases tariffs on solar modules and batteries from China, it is also Chinese companies that set up factories in other countries to bypass the tax barriers. However, this industry also needs to face fierce competition and low gross profit margins.
The domestic photovoltaic giants Longji and Tongwei have stepped out of Changyang, which has risen more than 60% since March this year. Longji shares have risen 67% since March 26, and their share price has also hit a record high recently. The stock is also favored by QFII. In the first quarter, Hillhouse China Value Fund held 226 million new shares, with a market value of approximately 20 billion at the end of the period, making it the third largest tradable shareholder.
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