4.16 五大联赛三场分析 4.16analysis of three matches in five major leagues

013 意甲 AC米兰vs热那亚
013 Serie A AC Milan vs Genoa
014 西甲 皇家社会vs皇家贝蒂斯
014 La Liga Royal Society vs Royal Betis
015 法甲 雷恩vs摩纳哥
015 Monaco vs Reina
013 意甲 AC米兰vs热那亚
013 Serie A AC Milan vs Genoa
下次交手，不知道要什么时候了。
I don't know when it's time for the next fight.
一个意甲榜首（暂时），一个意甲降级区球队（大概率降低），
A serie a top (temporarily), a serie a relegation zone team (probably reduced),
他们两相遇了。
They met.
联赛，AC米兰，在面对热那亚时算是小优势，
The league, AC Milan, is a small advantage against Genoa,
没有每场都打穿。上场意杯见面还打平了。
Not every game. The Italian Cup meeting was even.
这多少给了客队一些热度。
This has given the visiting team some heat.
主队近期有点狠，连续两场踢平局，零比零的那种，
The home team has been a little tough recently. They have played a draw for two consecutive games, the kind of zero to zero,
而且是跟中下游球队踢。
And play with middle and lower reaches teams.
客队上场刚被拉齐奥暴力打穿。
The visiting team has just been beaten through by Lazio.
不过近况，平局是很多的。高达70%。
However, there are many draws in recent times. Up to 70%.
欧洲给出了1.35-4.60-10.00的初数据。
Europe gives the initial data of 1.35-4.60-10.00.
胜负赔都没问题，我觉得平赔给的稍微高了点。
There's no problem in winning or losing. I think the flat compensation is a little higher.
给个4.20差不多了。
Give me a 4.20.
目前（4.15,6am）为1.30-5.00-11.00，
At present (4.15,6am) is 1.30-5.00-11.00,
这种变化看似很大，实则只能算轻微的波动，
This change seems to be very large, but in fact it can only be regarded as a slight fluctuation,
因为在实际之中，是找不到任何依据来支撑这种变化的。
Because in practice, there is no basis to support this change.
亚洲给出0.81一球/球半1.07，
Asia gives 0.81 ball / ball and a half 1.07,
后升盘，
Rear riser,
现保持为1.00球半0.88，
It is now maintained at 1.00 ball and a half and 0.88,
这个数据，多少有点不和谐。
This data is somewhat disharmonious.
玩家凭什么敢去降级区的客队，
How dare players go to the visiting team in the relegation zone,
人为抬高了客队的数据。
Artificially inflated the data of the visiting team.
若赛前仍保持此数据，
If this data is still maintained before the game,
你敢去球半盘的客队吗？不敢。
Dare you go to the visiting team in half set? afraid to.
哪怕AC米兰连续两场平局你都不敢。
Even if AC Milan draw twice in a row, you dare not.
还是会颤颤巍巍选择主队打穿。
Will still choose the home team to break through.
要记住这种忐忑的心情，这是本局引导的关键。
Remember this uneasy mood, which is the key to the guidance of this Council.
因为像这种悬殊的比赛，
Because a game like this,
不管怎么诱导，选上盘的永远是多数。
No matter how induced, the majority will always choose the upper market.
我们要根据我们选择的那个瞬间的心情，
According to the mood of the moment we choose,
来反推机构的诱导意图。
To deduce the inducement intention of the mechanism.
如果我们信心满满选了主队，那么客队必然不会被打穿。
If we choose the home team with confidence, the visiting team will not be beaten through.
信心慢慢，是机构给我们的。
Confidence grows slowly, which is given to us by the organization.
如果我们忐忑选了主队，主队打穿的概率就大很多了。
If we choose the home team with anxiety, the probability of the home team breaking through will be much higher.
忐忑，说明机构动摇了我们选主队的决心。
It shows that the organization has shaken our determination to choose the home team.
我们再动摇选主队的决心之后选择了主队，
After wavering in our determination to choose the home team, we chose the home team,
而另一些玩家在动摇选主队的决心之后，选了客队。
Other players chose the visiting team after shaking their determination to choose the home team.
我们自然要盈利了。
We're going to make a profit.
心理论看球，看似在跟机构博弈，
Psychologically, it seems to be playing with institutions,
其实也是在跟自己博弈。
In fact, I'm playing a game with myself.
看到这个高水我现在就有点忐忑，并且打算放弃这场比赛，
Seeing this high water, I'm a little nervous now and intend to give up the game,
毕竟第一打降级区的，所谓老鸟哪里敢选主队。更不敢选客队。
After all, the first to play in the relegation zone, the so-called old bird dare not choose the home team. I dare not choose the visiting team.
【我忐忑了，说明主穿】
[I'm nervous, it means the Lord wears it]
具体怎么定论，我们今晚社区十点半再复核一遍。
We'll review it again at 10:30 tonight.
周五竞彩停售是十一点。
The auction is closed at 11 o'clock on Friday.
014 西甲 皇家社会vs皇家贝蒂斯
014 La Liga Royal Society vs Royal Betis
两队近年表现都还可以。
Both teams have performed fairly well in recent years.
有从西甲中流球队，变成西甲准上游球队的趋势。
There is a trend from a middle class team in La Liga to a quasi upstream team in La Liga.
特别是皇家贝蒂斯，敢打，踢球风格非常好看，
Especially Real Betis, who dares to play and has a very good playing style,
转会预算再多点，说不定就是下个巴萨皇马。
More transfer budget, maybe the next Barcelona Real Madrid.
近年交手，皇家贝蒂斯，优势有点大。
In recent years, Royal Betis has a big advantage.
四个球胜对方，有点不讲情面。
It's a little unkind to beat each other with four goals.
好在皇家社会近况可以，有一战之力，
Fortunately, the Royal Society is in good condition and has the power of war,
加上接连被贝蒂斯打脸，要复仇，必须要复仇。
Plus being beaten in the face by Betis one after another. If you want revenge, you must revenge.
战意上去了，打不打得过，另说。
The war spirit has gone up. I can't beat it. Let's say otherwise.
欧洲给出了2.20-3.30-3.30的初数据，
Europe gives the initial data of 2.20-3.30-3.30,
现在（4.15，6am）主降客升，
Now (4.15, 6am) the main landing and passenger rise,
变为2.10-3.40-3.50，
To 2.10-3.40-3.50,
给客胜这么高，就因为要复仇？
Give away so much because you want revenge?
贝蒂斯可是连明年欧冠，都有机会的球队，
Betis is a team that has a chance to win the Champions League next year,
会因为你想复仇就防水？
Because you want revenge?
不会。
can't.
一个伟大的球队在成长之前，都会有一段不讲情面的日子。
Before a great team grows up, there will be a period of unkind days.
比如20-21赛季德甲的多特，乱入。
For example, DORT in the Bundesliga in the 20th-21st season.
皇家贝蒂斯也慢慢展现出这种倾向：不跟你讲情面，踢得过我就踢翻你，能进几个进几个。
Royal Betis is also slowly showing this tendency: don't be friendly with you, I'll kick you over if I can kick you, and I can score a few.
这种作风的球队肯定会被无形的压力摧残的，只是这个时候还没有到来。
This style of team will be destroyed by invisible pressure, but this time has not come yet.
亚洲给的数据呼应了欧洲，
The data given by Asia echoes that of Europe,
0.85平手/半球1.03，
0.85 tie / hemisphere 1.03,
且没什么变化。
And nothing has changed.
若赛前保持本数据，客胜。
If you keep this data before the game, the guest will win.
没得分析了，就是客胜。
There's no analysis. It's a guest victory.
解释一下：如果起初给了客胜低赔率，且给了客队低水，
Explain: if you give the visiting team a low odds at first and give the visiting team a low water,
这种情况之前，所有人都会选客队。
Before this situation, everyone will choose the visiting team.
机构不希望这种情况发生，所以强行逆转了数据。
The agency didn't want this to happen, so it forcibly reversed the data.
有点朋友问为什么不是客队的诱盘。
A friend asked why it wasn't the lure of the visiting team.
如果要诱，降客水维持在0.85左右，就是稳诱了。
If you want to lure, keep the passenger drop water at about 0.85, which is a stable inducement.
机构操盘，操的看似是盘，也是人心。
The organization operates the market, which seems to be the market and the people's heart.
015 法甲 雷恩vs摩纳哥
015 Frenchman vs Monaco
近十年，法甲去欧冠参赛的队伍，大巴黎常驻，里昂马赛摩洛哥轮流，
In the past ten years, the French League One teams participating in the Champions League have always been stationed in Paris, Lyon, Marseille and Morocco,
每年两支球队。上次法甲球队进欧冠决赛，还是2003-2004赛季，是摩洛哥。
Two teams a year. The last time France reached the Champions League final, it was Morocco in the 2003-2004 season.
16-17赛季，摩洛哥做了法甲冠军，
In the 16-17 season, Morocco won the French championship,
树大招风，球员纷纷被买走，姆巴佩就是那个时候被买走的。
A big tree catches the wind, and players are bought one after another. Mbape was bought at that time.
后面这支球队的战绩，
The record of the team behind,
就不亮眼了。
It doesn't shine.
我不是摩纳哥的球迷，我不清楚他们的教练是个什么策略，
I'm not a Monaco fan. I don't know what strategy their coach is,
让一支原本有望打压大巴黎的球队，
Let a team that was expected to suppress greater Paris,
变成了人才培养基地。
It has become a talent training base.
目前看，摸了个排名第六，
At present, it ranks sixth,
似乎还不错。跟第二名也才差九分，
It seems pretty good. It's only nine points from second place,
跟第三名雷恩，差六分。
Six points short of third place Ryan.
我们之前在别的分析里讲过，
As we said in other analyses,
法国球队实力均衡，就是差一点。
The strength of the French team is balanced, just a little.
所以摩洛哥，混得再好，明年也就欧联的水准了。
Therefore, Morocco, no matter how well it is mixed, will be at the level of the European Union next year.
近期交手，客队摩洛哥占一些优势，
In the recent battle, the visiting team Morocco has some advantages,
近期两队状态都还行，
Both teams are in good shape recently,
欧洲给出2.05-3.50-3.50的初数据，
Europe gives the initial data of 2.05-3.50-3.50,
看排名来的。
Look at the ranking.
亚洲给出0.82平手1.06初数据，
Asia gave 0.82 tie and 1.06 early data,
期间升盘，1.05半球0.83，
During the rise, 1.05, 0.83,
现在仍旧回到了初盘初水的状态。
Now it is still back to the state of initial water.
期间升盘，就是为了给玩家看客队低水，
The purpose of raising the plate during this period is to give players a low water level for the spectator team,
让玩家回忆以往客队战绩，
Let players recall the past achievements of the visiting team,
坚定玩家本场博平/半盘客队的决心。
Strengthen the player's determination of the visiting team in this game.
故本场，直接主胜。
Therefore, this game is the direct winner.
wechat：yanji201912