Write in front
Two weeks ago, "Punk" wrote an article about Fcoin-"Fcoin Token (FT)-the disruptor of the digital currency exchange, or the reaper of the relentless sickle". At that time, the overall public opinion on the entire network was negative. Calling FT a "funding disk", "MLM currency", and "Ponzi scheme" are endless. At that time, "punk" made a more objective, neutral and positive evaluation of FT.
Just one week later, following Zhang Jian's "repaying grievances with virtue", after Fcoin launched bnb, public opinion quickly reversed, and the overall public opinion slowly changed from negative to neutral and positive. After two weeks, Fcoin suspended the mechanism of inviting rebates, trading volume declined, and currency prices rose instead of falling.
In the past month or so since Fcoin was launched, "Punk" has seen a lot of articles about Fcoin without brains (of course there are also unintelligible ones), and Fcoin has also been questioned along the way and has successfully ranked among the first-tier exchanges (according to some statistics) It shows that Fcoin’s UV and PV have surpassed Huobi and okex). In addition, Fcoin also has many FT faith fans. Therefore, "punk" believes that the success of Fcoin has become a high probability event. In all fairness, even if Fcoin did not succeed in the end, it is still a great attempt in the currency circle and deserves encouragement.
Today, with the official launch of Fcoin on the GEM, "punk" will try to make a more objective assessment of Fcoin, and then reorganize the current Fcoin model and share it with you.
Early trend analysis
Although the overall trend of FT is more consistent with the previous forecast of "punk", the overall price is gradually falling and the mining volume is gradually increasing, but the price of FT fluctuates violently (basically, the average rate of decline is about 10% per day) , May actually have exceeded the expectations of "punk". According to the situation some time ago, the dividends of FT holders cannot compensate for the decline in the price of FT.
The main reason is that, due to the mechanism of inviting rebates, a large number of miners re-enable high-frequency trading, and daily trading volume is maintained at a very high level and continues to rise. At the same time, in order to continue trading on the second day, miners will exchange the FT sales returned on the first day for BTC and ETH and then continue to brush the amount. Therefore, there is a large amount of FT dumping pressure, and it is impossible to take over according to the daily release amount of close to 1.5%-2%. Or in other words, people who are really willing to take FT may as well be a miner for the benefits of FT. This led to an accelerated decline in prices, which in turn increased the amount of release. We even found that after the price plummet, the transaction volume will increase significantly, because more FT can be dug in this way. Because for miners, the absolute price of FT is not important, what is important is the decline between the price of FT tomorrow and the price of FT today.
Therefore, even if the stabilization fund is released, it cannot change this trend of continuous decline and accelerated unlocking. This is also consistent with the general direction previously judged by "punk". The short-term basic supply-demand relationship directly determines the price, while the long-term value discovery mechanism does not take effect so quickly.
Until, Fcoin temporarily stopped the mechanism of inviting rebates. Although the trading volume dropped sharply (about 1/60 of the period of subversion) and the dividend was significantly reduced, the currency price rose instead of falling. It seems that (at least in a short period of time) volume and price are not positively correlated.
Therefore, "Punk" has recently had some new thinking about Fcoin's mechanism and valuation model, and will discuss with you.
Three, Fcoin's mechanism analysis
First of all, the mechanism of Fcoin must be re-dissected in depth. (Friends who are not familiar with the rules of Fcoin can take a look at "Fcoin Token (FT)-the disruptor of the digital currency exchange or the reaper of the ruthless sickle").
Fcoin as a whole can be divided into two stages. One stage is the process of gradual release of FT, and the second stage is the process of stable dividends after the release of FT.
As mentioned before, the first step of Fcoin can actually be regarded as similar to ICO (neutral word). Through the transaction process, BTC and ETH are raised in funds, and the equivalent FT (in the invitation to return) is returned. During the commission process, a portion of FT will be returned as a reward). Some people think that this process is an "empty glove white wolf", in exchange for a cost-free FT with valuable BTC and eth, so this is a "scam".
"Punks" do not agree with this, because all ICOs are essentially such an operation, using btc and eth in exchange for a currency that didn't cost much at the time. On the contrary, the whole process is more "conscientious" than the general ICO process. The general ICO does not distribute the eth raised to the token holders, and Fcoin will refund a large part of the collected fees To early FT holders.
After mining, it is the second step of Fcoin. At this time, FT has been mined and Fcoin has become a normal exchange. Holding FT can continue to enjoy stable dividends.
If we estimate the valuation of FT according to the cumulative dividend discount model. Then
FT price = accumulated dividends in the first stage + discounted dividends in the second stage
(Note 1: In order to simplify the calculation, the accumulated dividends in the first stage will not be discounted)
(Note 2: This means that the cumulative dividend of FT is considered to be equal to its value, and other factors such as voting on the currency and the impact of autonomous communities on its price are not considered)
Fourth, FT unlocking (ICO) process valuation
So let's first look at how many dividends a single FT can get during the first stage.
First of all, it is very clear that according to the above formula, as time goes by, if the trading volume does not change, then the price of FT must fall, because the remaining cumulative dividends in the first stage are decreasing.
Second, if we put aside the price of a single FT first, and consider the entire stage as a whole, the money raised as a whole is actually equal to the price of FT per hour multiplied by the current handling fee until the FT is mined. . If we define P(n) to represent the average price in the nth hour, and W(n) to represent the handling fee in the nth hour, V(n) to represent the number of FT dug out in the nth hour, and N to be the FT dug out. Time (hours).