The highest court in Colorado, USA, ruled on the 19th that former US President Trump is not eligible for the primary elections of the 2024 presidential election in the state due to his involvement in the "Capitol Hill riot" on January 6, 2021. Trump's campaign team said they will appeal to the federal Supreme Court.
Why did the Supreme Court of Colorado make this decision? Does the ruling affect Trump's presidential campaign? What impact does the ruling have on the 2024 elections?
Why this decision was made
Of the seven justices of the Colorado Supreme Court, four supported the decision and three opposed. The ruling cites the third clause of the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution, also known as the "Rebel Ban," which prohibits those who swear allegiance to the Constitution and later participate in rebellions from holding public office.
The Colorado Supreme Court believes that the "Rebel Ban" applies to Trump. Since Trump is not qualified to hold public office, Colorado election officials cannot list him as a presidential candidate on the state's primary ballot.
From January 2017 to January 2021, Trump served as President of the United States. After the 2020 US presidential election, Trump refused to concede to his Democratic opponent Biden, repeatedly claiming major election fraud. On January 6, 2021, during the Congress's certification of the election results, a large number of Trump supporters violently stormed the Capitol building, resulting in riot and casualties. The Democrat-controlled House of Representatives subsequently impeached Trump for the second time, accusing him of "inciting rebellion."
The Colorado Supreme Court stated that the "Capitol Hill Riot" was an "insurrection" and Trump was involved in it. For the Capitol Hill Riot, Trump has consistently denied any wrongdoing and condemned lawsuits based on the "Rebel Ban," emphasizing that these lawsuits against him are "abuse of legal procedures."
Effect on Trump's campaign
The ruling of the Colorado Supreme Court is currently suspended pending Trump's appeal and the ruling of the Federal Supreme Court. Colorado election officials said this issue needs to be resolved before January 5, 2024, the final deadline for the state to determine the list of Republican primary candidates.
Trump faces lawsuits based on the "Rebel Ban" in multiple states, with Colorado being the first state to rule against Trump. Derrick Mueller, a law professor at the University of Notre Dame in the United States, believes that after Colorado takes the lead, other states may be more confident in taking legal actions, which poses a "major threat" to Trump's eligibility to run.
Republicans generally stand with Trump. A spokesperson for Trump's campaign team said in a statement that the ruling of the Colorado Supreme Court is seriously flawed, and they will immediately appeal to the Federal Supreme Court, believing that it will rule in Trump's favor.
The Federal Supreme Court is the final appellate court of the US judicial system and has the right to review and overturn lower court rulings. The Federal Supreme Court is dominated by conservatives, several of whom were nominated by Trump. Norman Eisen, a senior researcher at the Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution, said the Federal High Court will take this appeal seriously, but the outcome is difficult to predict.
Impact on the 2024 Election
In November 2024, the United States will hold a presidential election, and the primaries will be held in various states in early next year. At present, Trump is far ahead of other Republican competitors in the polls. On the Democratic side, incumbent President Biden is running for re-election.
The New York Times suggests that the ruling by the Colorado Supreme Court is "explosive," adding more uncertainty to the 2024 elections on a legal level. Apart from this trial, Trump is involved in other litigations and has to "shuttle between court and campaign activities". Biden is also in trouble as House Republicans are conducting impeachment investigations against him.
In the 2000 presidential election, disagreement over Florida's recount prompted a ruling from the Supreme Court that elevated George W. Bush to presidency. Rick Hasen, a professor of law at UCLA, said the Supreme Court is being pushed to the center of presidential elections again, but the difference is that the overall instability of US politics makes the current situation look more dangerous.
As the election year approaches and litigation surrounding Trump unfolds further, the divisions in US politics and society are expected to grow even more apparent. A joint poll by ABC News and The Washington Post earlier this year showed that more than 40% respondents think that according to the 14th amendment, Trump should be banned from running for president, while half of respondents stated that Trump should not be prohibited from running for president.