“I, born to be a gambler” Gambling is the game closest to trading
As a former professional gambler, I also talked about some of the insights that gambling brings to my investment philosophy. - "Professional Gambler Investment View"
I have always believed in the evil of human nature. Every human being comes with one or more bad genes that are not accepted by this secular. As individuals grow and integrate with this society, these genes will gradually find their own growth. The catalyst eventually blooms into a blossoming flower of big or small evil.
The most favorite game to play since childhood is playing poker. The favorite TV show at home is Hong Kong-made gambling shows. The most interesting subject in school is mathematics.
The most happy thing when I was a child was to play mahjong with my dad. Not only that, but after I had a little pocket money, I was more than happy to add all kinds of bets to any game with my friends.
In my opinion, the stock market is a gambling market, and the market is a casino. Gambling and stock trading have one thing in common -
In the game, you have no ability to influence the event. All you can do is make a judgment on the development of the matter based on the information you have obtained, and then bet.
Open big and small, buy up and buy down. Next, silently accept the results that this judgment brings to you, and there are only two results –
The correct judgment makes money, the wrong judgment loses money.
Most of the other games in the world can be trained to achieve the ability to control the event, and ultimately win the game.
This game is not the case.
I was 11 years old in 1999. I walked into the stock hall for the first time and was instantly attracted by the colorful figures on the big screen.
Then I started playing Monopoly, watching the big time（a Hong Kong made TV series show）, never followed my dad to play mahjong and started to follow my mom to the stock hall.
The first thing I did after I graduated from high school in 2007 was to open an account with the exchange and started my own career.
At the beginning, I started at Shanghai Stock Exchange. Later, I felt that Chinese stock market had a limit of ups and downs for four hours a day. Instead, I went to speculate on US stocks. Later, I felt that the trading hours of US stocks were still too short, and I turned to foreign exchange.
I have been in the K line for four years in college, and I am chasing and falling every day. Maybe it’s my luck, maybe I have talent, or I’m playing in the stock hall since I was a child. I can always taste the sweetness in various markets. Although the profit is not comparable to those who are tens of hundreds of times more profitable. But it is also a small gain.
After graduating from college in 2011, I took the gift from the capital market and came to the New World in the Southern Hemisphere. I am a long-awaited land and I have temporarily left the capital market.
The next day I got off the plane, I walked into the only casino in Sydney. After losing all of my $100, I was almost familiar with the various games in the casino.
I am even more convinced that this is a place where it is easier to make money than the stock market. After the first two months, I began to study gambling in depth.
I will be 26 years old in half a month.
Looking back on my 26-year journey, I have probably done two or three unreliable things, and in this case, I once wanted to be a professional gambler must occupy a place.
Fortunately, the gambling experience of the past six months has given me a deeper understanding of life, and also provided me with a lot of inspiration for improving my trading system. Overall, it is not a bad experience.
- Bigger Fool Type: it seems to lose in probability, but in fact loses in humanity
Slot machine. Simply put, this is a silly game. Because it is clear that in this game entirely controlled by the dealer, your continued profitability is infinitely close to zero, so I am completely uninterested in this game.
Most people understand this fact, but this does not prevent Slot machine from becoming the most profitable game in the casino.
As the country with the largest number of Slot machine per capita in the world, Australia can be called a country for stupid
I tried to find the same thing in the securities market to compare the Slot machine, thus explaining the psychological characteristics of this moth.
After a few attempts, I can't find a suitable example. I think I can only think that the phenomenon of retail warrants is somewhat similar.
Many people often get a crazy rise in the early days of buying warrants, which is like a person taking a JACKPOT in a Slot machine.
At this time, the greed in the depths of the heart will be fully activated, in an attempt to pursue higher returns, and at the same time, because of the large amount of profits, the inherently risk-control emotions are completely forgotten.
The next stage tends to be accompanied by a long-term decline in the face price, which is accompanied by a small phased rebound. During the game of Slot machine, the machine will also explode some small prizes to dilute you because of continuous failure. Aversion.
This process gives your luck to the upper hand and believes that you still have a chance to gain more benefits, thus losing the possibility of fleeing from the rebound.
In the final stage, when the profits are exhausted and you start to lose money, you will have a desire for a miracle and a kind of broken cans that can't be beaten, and eventually cause all the loss of the principal to be exhausted without taking any The act of self-rescue.
The sagacity of the game of Slot machine is that it can infinitely magnify all kinds of weaknesses of human nature. It seems that you lost in probability, but actually lost in human nature.
“Therefore, if you can't control greed very well and overcome the weakness of humanity as much as possible, then you are advised to stay away from the stock market or the casino. Otherwise, the outcome is largely unrequited.”
- Betting Against Type: the size of funds is the key
Baccarat can be classified as such.
The hallmark of this type of game is that no matter what kind of game strategy you adopt, your winning expectation will always be negative. That is to say, from a probabilistic point of view, if you play such games for a long time, you must lose money.
However, the actual situation is not the case, at least I still make money.
Taking (Baccarat) as an example, casinos have a natural advantage of 1% in games. Many people take it for granted that this is the root cause of casinos making money forever, but it is not.
I have talked with GM several times. This German man who has studied for more than 20 years and I said:
Even if you have this 1% advantage, the casino is still the last winner.
I agree with this sentence, but he only said half of this sentence.
Let me talk about the half he said:
- Why is the casino always the ultimate winner?
Because winning or losing will only be finalized at the end of the game. This kind of game does not end naturally like football. It doesn't end like a tennis player first reaches a certain score. Once this game starts, it will only be in one situation. The end is that you and the casino have one side of the capital back to zero, the game can not continue.
They always control tens of thousands of times or even hundreds of thousands of times your money, just use the ass to think about who will lose everything in this game.
In front of this huge capital advantage, the 1% natural advantage as the fart is not counted, even if it is for you?
In the capital market, why are retail investors always being cut by large funds?
In addition to the advantages of having more information channels and faster ordering channels, the most fundamental reason is that they are financially large and not afraid to lose.
Even if you have millions of funds, and then with the advantage of the trading system, it is just a boat, perhaps you can save you from swimming naked on the river, but in front of the big waves of capital must also be wet.
Having said that, I can still win money under such unfavorable conditions. It is like that there are still retail investors who have escaped from the big money in the fight. This is due to the half that the old man did not finish:
the big has the big advantages, the small has the small advantages.
Every day for 365 days a year, except for Christmas break for half a day, the rest of the day is open.
All comer are guests, the casino is the customer wants to play at any time, you have to pick up the pick up at any time.
But the gamblers are different. The gambler can come and go. Even if there are more cash reserves, I will not look at it. Only when you are a Diors with 100 yuan of capital, you have won this. 100, when the game is over, the ass is gone, so that I become a financially advantageous party.
With this advantage you may not win any big money, but it is really difficult to lose money.
After understanding this theory, I developed a game strategy for myself. Practice every day, although there are occasional records of losing in the past six months, but overall it is a lot of income.
As for this game strategy, people who have studied mathematics know that each time the probability of winning is an independent event, this strategy does not help you effectively improve the winning rate. It has more meaning. The greed that helps you control your self-expansion is the biggest risk in the game.
(By the way, no matter what strategy must be guaranteed to be exact certain amount of money every time, don't use the stupid strategy that violates the common sense of mathematics. Such as, after every time I lose, I double down the amount.)
A friend specializes in short-term, and after the close of the day, the stock of the daily limit is made into a stock pool(Chinese stock market has a 10% raising and falling daily limit policy) , and then the stock that has the fake Falling shade line is bought in the end of the next day. The third day is sold within half an hour after the market opening, even if it is low. Or the loss is sold as well. This kind of operation can be said to have no technical content at all, but the income is very considerable.
The friend’s success fully demonstrates the two-point speculative theory that has been realized from gambling:
First, I may not be able to enter the market earlier than big money, but I can do it faster than big money;
Second, it is a very effective way to control the growing greed by adhering to a simple and clear trading system.
Finally, we need to remind the new investors again:
This simple system with no technical content can only help you make small money in the stock market with small funds. If you want to operate large funds or get higher profits, it is obviously more complicated.
- Reality: Everyone is your opponent
The game of Texas Hold'em has soared in the past two years in china, and it has become a must-have for the local tycoon, the white-collar petty bourgeoisie, and the daily essential skills.
Now there is nowhere to go to take the Pushkin poem in the afternoon, which consider as the LOW life rhythm, it’s better for free time to sway at the table to enhance their poker skills
In the poker game, the hardest thing is the bridge, then Omaha HIGH-LOW (I suspect that the warrant buffet investment system is benefiting from this game) and Omaha high card, then Texas Hold'em. Very embarrassing, I don’t know how to play bridge. Omaha is also very amateur, so I can only talk about Texas Hold'em.
Affected by the film and television works, I thought it was a High threshold game. Participants should be successful people who are in the financial field, or successful businessmen. At the very least, they should be doctors. Lawyer University Lecturer, a highly respected professional in Western society.
The actual situation is that the personnel on each table constitute all-inclusive, there are ordinary office workers who are sunrise to sunset, the poor boys who make living on delivery food, the high school students of the famous universities, the hard-working firefighters and the grandfather in the wheelchairs.
I’m afraid there is only one place in the world that has more careers than the Texas Hold'em table, and that’s the stock exchange.
Everyone sitting at the table is like the one who walks into the stock hall, trying to make a profit from here, and the legends that are circulated in the casino are all the adrenaline that motivates the gamblers all the time.
But the reality is often very cruel. In the end, there are only a few who make a profit, and there are very few who can really get rich by playing cards. From this point of view, this is similar to stocks.
Some people often ask, how hard it is to make money on this table, I can only say that it is not as difficult as you think, but it is not as simple as you think.
The reason why it is difficult is because the probability of ten bets and nine loses is even more cruel than the stock market, which is because it is like playing poker and stock trading. You only need to have three conditions to be the last. Winners: courage, hard work, good luck.
So don't say that you won't lose if you don't gamble, or that short positions are both a non-nonsense of making money.
Whether it is stock trading or playing cards, your goal is to win rather than lose. Those who have no guts are better off early.
Don't imagine that someone will bring you to get rich, and you can only make a difference at the table or the market by your constant efforts.
In view of the recent scammers, I took this opportunity to say a few words. When I was young, I watched "Big Times". Ye Tian asked Fangzhanbo what stock is. Fang Zhanbo said that it is a game of people and money. Ye Tian said that it is wrong. Stocks are games of people and people.
It is the nature of this game that determines -
Regardless of stocks or XX, everyone except yourself is your opponent.
Because there is bound to be lost, everyone please pat their heads and think about it. If someone can help everyone make money, who is losing money? Only may be himself.
Therefore, I would like to advise those who are doing the gods to take me to the future dreams, so please wake up, and it is very simple to say goodbye to all the swindlers. All those who claim to bring you to make a fortune must be liar.
- Tight hand type: Make things simple, choose "high winning chance, low profit"
Value investment vs. trend trading, poker masters know that this is actually two parallel strategies, and it is boring to argue all day long.
There are often poker shows when interviewing world famous players and asking them what advice they have for poker novices. Most of these masters’ answers are –
"play tight."
As we all know, in each game, Dealer will issue two cards to each player. Based on these two cards, the player will decide whether he wants to enter the game and how many chips are initially invested in this game.
Obviously, the probability of winning the three faces of AA, 78, and 27 different colors is completely different.
The "tighter" that these poker gods say is that -
Only choose to participate in the game of AA, KK, AK such a super strong card.
In the poker game, the winning rate of the game AA is very high, because it is easier to be perceived by the opponent when holding the card, and thus the game ends earlier, so the operation is relatively simple.
However, the high starting point of this type of card itself also leads to limited development space. In addition, the game with this kind of card in the game just mentioned often leads to the early end of the game, which is bound to make this super strong card often unable to obtain a large income.
For example, the super-strong cards such as AA, KK, and AK are like blue-chips invested by China Merchants Bank and China Ping An. The quality of their own companies is excellent. Investors choose to hold them for a long time and rely on dividends to gain stability. The profit, but because the company itself has a large scale, so the growth space is limited, coupled with the thorough research of the investors in the secondary market, it is almost impossible for the stock price to be smashed.
As far as this is concerned, everyone understands that the so-called "tight-handed" players are actually value investors on the poker table. These players only choose to participate in high-quality cards, and do not expect to double their chips by one card. I hope to make a profit on the poker table through long-term stable profits.
Why do almost all poker gods always say "play tight" when it comes to advice to beginners?
Because without considering luck and talent, for newcomers to poker games, they don't have enough ability to analyze the situation on the table, and they can't handle all kinds of complicated cards correctly. It’s a way to simplify the game, it can be said that this is the only way for beginners to make a profit in this game.
Similarly, for new investors or amateur investors, you don't have enough energy to delve into the company's fundamentals, and there is not enough experience to collect the signals given by the market, also without considering luck and talent, this only Buying a large-cap blue-chip value investment method is definitely the best choice when you first enter the market.
Value investment is certainly not so great, but it is definitely not so junky. It's just a strategy.
Beginners just start playing super strong cards in the game and still have the possibility of losing money, but as long as you insist on this style of play, after hundreds of thousands or even millions of games, you will find that your income may not be high, but absolutely It is positive.
The same is true for value investment. If we look at it after 5 or even 10 years, maybe the income is not high, but it will definitely bring satisfactory income.
- The Aggressive Type: Most people who think they have the ability are "rookies"
In the poker game, the cards of different colors are the most difficult to deal with. The advantages of this type of card are not high in the pre-flop stage, but the combination is more flexible and the development space is large.
This means that in the next stage of game, this set of cards will become a super strong card at any time due to the appearance of different public cards.
Because there are more combinations of cards, it is not easy for opponents to judge your cards, so the game cards can often extract higher profits in poker games.
We might as well consider such cards as growth stocks in the stock market. This kind of stock itself has a general quality and a small scale, but its development space is huge. With the development of society and technology, it can often usher in the turning point of performance and become a bullish stock.
In general, if you want to play such cards, the correct way to play is to minimize the amount of pre-flop bets and try to see the three community cards on the flop at minimal cost.
After entering the flop, be sure to find out which cards are the key cards that can make your hand a super strong card. In other words, those cards can make the growth of your hand fully fulfilled (wrong cards or miscalculate, which it is a common phenomenon that appear among beginners very often) If you find that you have already had the chance to form a super card, you must constantly increase the amount of bets and try to get the most out of this round. The proceeds.
This type of card is very difficult. First you need enough ability to interpret whether your face or cards are strong enough to beat all opponents' cards;
Second, you should always pay attention to whether the public board will make you into a passive situation after each round of dealing. Once you are sure that you are behind the opponent, you must choose to fold in time. If you find that the opponent has a higher probability, which means combine the public card has a chance to go ahead in the next round, it must take a certain method to take profit. (Generally, by greatly increasing the amount of betting to an unreasonable level, forcing the opponent to give up and see the next card, this protection is very effective way to take profits.);
Third, you must have enough psychological capacity to withstand the interference of the external environment, that is, bluffs from your opponent. For the player who uses this game strategy after the flop, we call it a fierce play.
In fact, think about it, our approach to operating growth stocks in the stock market is very similar to the way we play games in poker.
And this kind of trading method, which is pressed step by step after in-depth research, is actually very similar to the trend trading in the stock market.
Trend traders tend to open a position on a growth stock in the market in a small amount, and at the same time carry out fundamental exploration of the stock to find out the incentives that can cause stocks to rise.
After the rising logic is realized, the stock price begins to rise and gradually increases in positions to buy.
A successful trend trader should first have the ability to deepen the fundamentals, clearly know the rising logic of the stock price, correctly judge which is the real growth stock and have enough room for growth;
Second, it should have the ability to judge the inflection point of the stock price trend. When it is realized that the stock performance is cashed, the subsequent growth space is limited or the industry has an inflection point, it immediately chooses to take profit when the stock price just enters the downtrend;
Thirdly, it must be said that trend traders are big hearts. In the process of rising stock prices, they are often accompanied by a very rapid adjustment that is very confusing. Only those investors who can firmly hold their shares and dealing these fakes Is an excellent trend investor.
If you have all of the above qualities, then you have enough ability to win more profit in the market or at the table, instead of relying on value investing to slowly accumulate profits.
As for whether you really have this ability, I am afraid that it can only be handed over to the market and the table to test it.
I guess, on the table or in the market, 80% of people feel that they have this ability, or hope to get the profit that can be obtained after having this ability, but I know I am afraid that only those who have these abilities will only have 10%, and the remaining 70% of those who think they have these abilities are the losers. These people are called "fish" in poker and called "rookies”in the stock market.
- Bottom card type: dare to play frequently, no genius that is a fraud
There is also a kind of bottom card type in the poker game. This kind of card has no value in itself, and its own growth has limited. It is regarded as a junk stock on the table. The typical representative is 27 (not suited) in different color.
But even if these bad cards are still able to get a lot of money from it, the representative is the big shark durrrr Tom Dwan.
Playing this card is like playing the *ST sector on the stock market(a kind of stock that has the delisting risk in Chinese market), maximizing both risk and profit.
Since I am not enough to control such cards, I naturally have no feelings to talk about. But I know that players who dare to play such cards frequently at the table are not geniuses or a fraud.
In the same way, those who dare to make money on this section in the stock market for a long time are not geniuses or insider traders.
As far as I am concerned, unless the stock is determined to be risk-removed, I will never touch such stocks myself.
Having said that, I believe that friends who are somewhat savvy have already understood -
Tight and fierce are not two opposing strategies in the game. On the contrary, real masters often choose different strategies to play at different times to achieve the balance in the game.
The long-standing debate about value and trends has not stopped. Trend traders ridiculed the value of investment is an old school, and value investors despise trend trading scams, which is very ridiculous to me.
Why can't I learn the long-distance running after practicing the table tennis?
Two things that hypothetically cannot coexist in a clear way are caused by the inferiority of their own believers, and it is not for you to practice to be a eunuch. If you cut off your life, you will never be a man.
Is it better to use the right method at the right time?
The only concern that remain is wanting to acquire all becoming half way quit.
Texas Hold'em seems to be simple, but it is a very complicated game, so it is impossible to say all the essence of it in a few words.
In the future, I will have the opportunity to discuss with you in depth the trading system that has been summarized through various game modes.
- Finally talk about the issue of asset management -
No matter how much money you make in the stock market, if you don't leave the market, everything is just a number.
There is no end to people's desires. We always want to make more money. How can we solve the problem of earning only the numbers and not the money?
My approach is to always take out only one-third of your money to play poker or stocks. For example, if you have 3 million, you will take out 1 million stocks, and after a period of time, redistribute the assets. In short, you should ensure that your stock market value is 1/3 of your total assets.
This is the asset management method that many world-renowned players have extracted from the casino. I believe it will help everyone.