🎲 🎲 Reduce Backgammon Stress by Understanding Basic Probability & Statistics

🎲 🎲 🎲

I've played a gazillion games of backgammon,
since learning how to play in the Navy about 4 decades ago.

• Not too long ago I would get so frustrated with the dice I would want to throw my smartphone against the wall and break it into a gazillion pieces. No way could they be that lucky! Thus began my quest to understand basic probability & statistics.
  • Once I figured out basic probability & statistics, I could actually laugh out loud when the AI opponent started having lucky dice. Because I understood that likely meant I had some hot dice coming up.
    • Life is good!
      

      🎲 🎲 🎲

What is probability & statistics?

According to dictionary.com
probability
[prob-uh-bil-i-tee]

noun, plural prob·a·bil·i·ties.
Statistics.

• the relative possibility that an event will occur, as expressed by the ratio of the number of actual occurrences to the total number of possible occurrences.

• the relative frequency with which an event occurs or is likely to occur.

• .

🎲 🎲 🎲

Flipping a coin

There are 2 possibilities when you flip a coin.

• heads
• tails

Lesson 1
What's the probability of getting heads when you flip a coin?

• the ratio of the number of actual occurrences to the total number of possible occurrences.

  • There is 1 possibility of it coming up heads.
  • There are 2 total possible outcomes (1. heads 2. tails)
    • The probability of getting heads when you flip a coin = 1 / 2 = 0.5

Lesson 2
How do you convert a decimal to percent?
Multiply by 100
0.5 * 100 = 50%

🎲 🎲 🎲

Rolling a dice

The dice used in backgammon has 6 sides.
What's the odds of rolling any particular number?
We can compare this with a bag of marbles; 5 blue and 1 red.
The red marble is the particular number you are looking for...

Lesson 3
If you have a bag with 5 blue marbles and 1 red marble,
what's the odds of reaching in the bag and pulling out the red marble?

• the ratio of the number of actual occurrences to the total number of possible occurrences.

  • There is 1 possibility of picking the red marble.
  • There are 6 total possible outcomes (1 red marble + 5 blue marbles = 6 marbles)
    • The probability of getting the red marble = 1 / 6 = 0.1667 = 16.67%

Lesson 4
If you have a bag with 5 blue marbles and 1 red marble,
what's the odds of reaching in the bag and not pulling out a red marble (not getting the number you are looking for), or in other words, pulling out a blue marble?

• the ratio of the number of actual occurrences to the total number of possible occurrences.

  • There are 5 possibilities of picking a blue marble.
  • There are 6 total possible outcomes (1 red marble + 5 blue marbles = 6 marbles)
    • The probability of getting the red marble = 5 / 6 = 0.8333 = 83.33%

You are nearly 5 times more likely to not roll the number you are looking for than you are.

You are nearly 5 times more likely to not roll the number you are looking for than you are.

You are nearly 5 times more likely to not roll the number you are looking for than you are.

I've always heard, if you repeat something 3 times, the person will remember it...

🎲 🎲 🎲

Back to flipping a coin

Lesson 5
If you've flipped a coin 10 times and each time it came up heads,
what's the odds with the next flip it will come up heads?

• the ratio of the number of actual occurrences to the total number of possible occurrences.

  • There is 1 possibility of it coming up heads.
  • There are 2 total possible outcomes (1. heads 2. tails)
    • The probability of getting heads when you flip a coin = 1 / 2 = .5 = 50%
      Or stated another 50 50

Lesson 6
If you've flipped a coin 1000 times and each time it came up heads,
what's the odds with the next flip it will come up heads?

• the ratio of the number of actual occurrences to the total number of possible occurrences.

  • There is 1 possibility of it coming up heads.
  • There are 2 total possible outcomes (1. heads 2. tails)
    • The probability of getting heads when you flip a coin = 1 / 2 = .5 = 50%
      Or stated another 50 50

Lesson 7
If you've flipped a coin a gazillion times and each time it came up heads,
what's the odds with the next flip it will come up heads?

• the ratio of the number of actual occurrences to the total number of possible occurrences.

  • There is 1 possibility of it coming up heads.
  • There are 2 total possible outcomes (1. heads 2. tails)
    • The probability of getting heads when you flip a coin = 1 / 2 = .5 = 50%
      Or stated another 50 50
      

      🎲 🎲 🎲

      Lucky #7.
      Time to stop with the lessons, at least for today...

      🎲 🎲 🎲

      
      If you learn this simple lesson, you will reduce backgammon stress:

Previous dice rolls do not affect future dice rolls.
@WizarDave said that! Feel free to quote me.
Probably not the first to say it...

• As we will see in a later lesson, the odds of rolling double sixes are 1 in 36 or 2.78%
  • If your opponent has rolled 3 double 6's in a row, what's the odds of rolling a double 6 in the next roll?
    • Most people get this wrong thinking the odds are a gazillion to 1.
      Perhaps better stated as 1 in a gazillion.
      And that misunderstanding causes you to experience tremendous stress if your opponent rolls another double 6. 😤
  • My calculator does not handle gazillions, so I cannot convert that to a percentage for you, but it would be a very tiny number!
    • They cause themselves undue stress, because
      the correct answer is 2.78%.!
      

      🎲 🎲 🎲

A real life backgammon story

I was playing a tournament online one time,
and after a miraculous roll,
I said "ABRACADABRA."
I am @WizarDave after all!
The opponent got all mad, said I was cheating and called the moderator. She explained what had just happened and I asked the moderator one simple question and told to think very carefully before she answered. Is it possible to hack your program and control the dice or did I simply get a very lucky roll? You see, if their program could be hacked who would ever want to play on their site again? She gave the obvious answer...

• Congratulations on that amazingly lucky roll WizarDave!
  • My poor opponent probably quit playing backgammon that day.
    Backgammon is just too stressful!
    • Not really if you understand basic probability & statistics.
      

      🎲 🎲 🎲

Image Source: pixabay

	Meaning you can't waste your vote

Who I am @WizarDave		The KEY to Life!