Global Grains Take Massive 14% Hit, Where Will Our Food Come From?

This video was originally published 17/10/2019

Rosy USDA forecast for Argentina snubbed yet again. Private analysts are reporting below 19 million for the wheat crop, around 18.3–18.5 million tons, but the USDA is producing a higher yield report of around 21 million tons. Argentina is the world’s 5th largest wheat exporter after Russia, EU, Canada and Ukraine, but since their fields have been affected by frost and hail, with crop yields coming in at 3 year lows.

Argentina on this map and below it sits Antarctica. Notice the recent strange storm systems pounding New Zealand, Australia, and now, Argentina with out of season cold. Perhaps this is the reason why their yields have decreased.

Another rosy forecast from the USDA for Brazil was slashed by 3 million tons. Even Conab, Brazil’s own food statistics agency cut the legs off the USDA’s forecast, asking them where they got those numbers from. AgRural reported that only 3.1% of the crop is in the ground, which is about half of the typical amount that is planted at this time. So, there are lots of disputing these USDA figures.

This is why, in my opinion, the USDA now is nothing more than a market stabilizer. They are not providing any truth about crop yields on the ground, or else these massive 2019 declines in the expected output in the United States and Canada would have been seen in their reports.

Aa wheat was mentioned in the previous article, let’s visit Ukraine and look at their planting at the moment. Sadly, the low moisture availability for the soil is, surely, not a great news for farmers planting winter crops.

Orange areas on the map have drier weather, with green regions having average or normal moisture. Will this be a one-year planting event? We have to wait and see as we move through 2019–2020, but in the “Czech Lands” which are usually experience a mega-drought every Grand Solar Minimum, is just north of this location. So, this may be a historical cycle repeating.

Back to Argentina, agriCensus reported that internal wheat consumption forecast at 6 million tons this year. This is the wildcard, because regardless of what the USDA’s report of 21 million tons says, harvests will be below 18 million tons, and this equates to less exports for the world. So where are other countries going to get their grain from to offset Argentinian declines? Like what I’ve said before, you cannot print food. It has to be grown, or not.

Each country will, certainly, utilize internally what is needed, and only sell the excess. If you look around, every country seems to be decreasing exports. This means prices should start rising, so should inflation.

Anyway, this is another drop the ball forecast from the USDA, they will have to slash global ending stocks to 4-year lows. Let me remind you that at the beginning of 2019 they reported that the yields were going to be rosy, and this year would be the highest yield ever, increasing by 2%. So how did that suddenly drop?

USDA admitting that these storms are going to wipe out another 2% from the US supply, but private forecasters believed that it is going to be a much, much higher number.

One of most laughable reports from USDA forecasts: “The United States is only declining in grain production by only 4%.” Even with the largest floods ever recorded in the USA with the most acres ever claiming “No Plant Insurance”

In reality, there was a 40% decline for corn alone, 15% decline, at the minimum, for soy beans, and 4–5% decline for wheat. So how is the entire grain output from the United States is only falling by 4%? Where is the USDA getting their numbers from? Did they somehow forget a zero on that report?

Also, China state-run media is calling a 30% decline in corn production due to armyworms that devastated their crops during the spring, and now the outbreak of fall armyworms. Yet the USDA is reporting not even a 2% loss. There is a vast disconnect between the statements of state-run media in China and the USDA.

I am, however, not sure of how this works because they are asserting that Brazil is at just a tenth of a percent increase, but Brazilian crop forecasting agency, Conab, put a significantly larger loss than that. So there is a huge disconnect between what is being reported through the USDA and what on-the-ground reports are from individual nations. This is laughable, and nothing more than a market stabilization mechanism, or fraud, or both.

China experiencing massive crop losses in corn, wheat, fruit, vegetables, as well as pork. This is one reason why China is exempting US pork, soybeans, and other farm goods from additional trade war duties.

So it comes down to where our food is going to come from?

China understands that it needs more food for its people; and from an article I have just read, China’s CPI has had 6-year highs with runaway, non-stop projected inflation on food up to now in October, making China’s food inflation for the year 50%. It is, somehow, evident that this trade war is nothing more than smoke and mirrors, and they are incredibly dependent on US imports for food.

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*** Today’s Story Links ***

China to exempt US pork and soybeans from additional trade war duties
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3027163/china-exempt-us-pork-and-soybeans-additional-trade-war

ANALYSIS: North and South America soybean crops face weather challenge
https://www.agricensus.com/Article/ANALYSIS-North-and-South-America-soybean-crops-face-weather-challenge-8891.html

Analysts eye sub-19m mt Argentina wheat crop on dry weather
https://www.agricensus.com/Article/Analysts-eye-sub-19m-mt-Argentina-wheat-crop-on-dry-weather-8955.html

Lightning near the north pole very rare

https://watchers.news/2019/08/15/lightning-strikes-north-pole-august-2019/

Polar Pulse and Thunder snow in Australia Extremly Rare
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/polar-pulse-in-south-east-could-lead-to-thundersnow/news-story/2d6811d0dba6323c4fc454f89a6ab5b7
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/17/extreme-weather-thundersnow-expected-in-victoria-as-queensland-hit-by-heatwave

Australia thundersnow temperature maps
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=aus&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2019101712&fh=-12

Corn production levels 2018 vs 2019

Ukraine soil moisture levels for planting

Crop conditions globally
https://twitter.com/AuraCommodities

USA Crop maturity far behind averages

USA Soybeans harvested way below normal

USA Corn Harvested way below normal

Rosy unattainable forecasts from the USDA

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