Mass Shootings, Correlation, & Causative FunctionssteemCreated with Sketch.

in gun •  7 years ago 

What factors are most strongly correlated with mass shootings and gun homicides in general?

The percentage of campaign financing from the NRA and other gun lobbying groups for elected officials? No correlation.

Generalized "mental illness"? No correlation.

Race / ethnicity? Depending on study, either no correlation, or slight correlation. The slight correlation is better explained elsewhere.

Restrictiveness of state-specific gun laws? Seemingly yes (stricter gun laws -> increased mass shootings). However, when other factors are assessed, no statistically significant correlation.

Number of individuals with guns? No correlation.

What factors are correlated with mass shootings?
(1) Single-parent household - specifically, fatherless homes / lack of father-child relationship.
(2) High school drop out -- correlation becomes insignificant when #1 is controlled for.
(3) Active involvement in a religious community (protective factor, inverse relationship).

Other factors exist with varying degrees of correlation. I discuss medications and school shootings in a recent YouTube video, so please refer to that video for more information. Also, the higher per capita rate for African Americans vs. Caucasians is insignificant when #1 is controlled for, at least for mass shootings specifically.

I hypothesize that #3 is somehow better explained by #1, but I have no specific evidence for this claim. Also, don't complain to me about issues regarding Christianity, Catholicism, or any of the Abrahamic religions - I'm an atheist. I'm just providing a general survey of the literature.

So, what is the most common cause for a single-parent household? Paternal death only accounts for a very small percentage (less than 5%), and the preventable deaths in this category bring the percentage down to less than 2%. Adoption by a single-parent is also low. Divorce is the most common factor. Children of divorce are 3 times more likely to access mental health services, twice as likely to drop out of high school, almost twice as likely to commit suicide, and experience significantly more difficulty forming healthy peer relationships and have more cases of overt acts of aggression (boys specifically).

What is the most common reason for divorce (with minor children)?
Is it physical or emotional abuse? No. Adultery? No. Drug use? No.

  • The most common reason (>50% of divorces with children) stated is general dissatisfaction (mother).

What changed in society to create a situation where increasing the risk of negative outcomes for a child is acceptable if a marriage is not satisfying?

  1. Post-1960s entitlements programs. Previously, being a single-mother was nearly impossible economically. However, that fails to account for the numerous divorcees who do not collect significant / regular entitlements.
  2. Closing of the gender wage gap. The gender wage gap has gradually closed, to the point where currently -- when factors such as career choice, specific job category and responsibilities, field, and hours worked are considered -- the gender wage gap has 3 to 6% that is unaccounted for. On average, women make 94% of the pay that men make, for the same position, duties, hours worked per week, etc. I believe the bulk of the remainder can be accounted for by population variance in personality trait agreeableness, but that's a discussion for another time.

Cutting female wages to pre-1960s rates is obviously not a workable solution, nor is radically reducing benefits -- even though many of these programs will require significant restructuring in the future as a result of increased payouts / inflation and national debt.

What else is potentially a catalyst for the increased divorce rates not listed above? How do we address this issue without impeding on individual rights?

And, finally: I am grateful to have been raised by two parents who were willing to work through the difficult times. I was already problematic enough as a teenager -- who knows where I would have ended up without the basic stability of having a mother and father in the home. Thank you.

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