Basically what we've seen the past three weeks is Harris consolidating the Democratic base.

in harris •  last month 

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Trump's polling has been pretty static. He's got his ceiling. The third party effect has declined, but is still critical since the margins are so close.

RFK is unambiguously taking from Trump now. That wasn't true when Biden was in the race. Stein and West are now polling in the ~1% range. Enough to matter, but they are doing worse on ballot access than RFK. Chase Oliver is barely registering in polls.

The race is still going to be a nail biter and we have a long way to go from here. Though we are essentially a month away from the start of early voting.

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