Damn sexy state polling.
Harris leads 1.9 points in Michigan. Trump only leads by 1.1 points in Georgia. And Harris leads by 0.5 points in Pennsylvania.
If Pennsylvania is the tipping point state, current polling averages suggest only a ~1 point electoral college bias right now. That would be significantly lower than in 2020 when the bias was ~3.9 points.
Thus Harris can win the election if she only wins the national popular vote by 1 point.