Always great to start the day being able to report a winning posted ticket. While it was close, both bets on the ticket landed softly, good for a profit of over 5 units. Like written yesterday, I could use a win to color the month green again. And this is exactly what happened. Also very happy that I decided to stay away from Burnley, who since long failed to win.

February

While not a lot of data available, it is always good to have a look at the stats.

So far 8 tickets played, only 2 winners but a hit rate above 20% is good enough for me. This is due to the odds. This does result into a ROI of 39.58%, which is more than great! I would even call it superb. This also does give me a cushion of 3 bets.

2023

Not only February turned green, but also 2023.

Only one unit, but a profit is a profit. So far 40 tickets have been played, but only 7 turned out to be winners. The hit rate is on the low side with only 17.5%. I must remind myself that 2023 started horrible with 15 losing tickets in a row. With that in the back of my mind, I am still happy with the result so far this year. A ROI of only 2.96% is always better than a negative ROI.

My average winning odds are 5.883, which means I do need a hit rate of 17% to make a profit. Last year the average winning odds were 5.091.
Still strange that the 3 fold parlays stay in the red, as well for February as for 2023. In 2022 the 3 fold accas did represent 61% of all tickets played, but this did result into a loss of 9 units. For 2023 the 3fold parlays are also in the red, but too make it worse they do represent 82.5% of all tickets played. I only won 9 out of 33, hit rate: 15.15% and with average odds of 6.59 I would need a hit rate of 16%.

Today's ticket

Not sure if I do want to play a ticket or not. We do have 2 Champions League games, a Premier League and La Liga game and some games in the English Championship.
The game between Arsenal and City is a tough one to call. A win for City would mean that Arsenal did loose all their advantage and will have to start over again, neglecting the fact that they did play one game less. Strange that a Premier League game is more appealing than the Champions league games of today! I am tempted to go for the over for this game.

In Spain, one can expect a victory for Real against Elche, number last in La Liga, but the odds for a Real win aren't good enough to add to a ticket.

Dortmund against Chelsea is the most interesting Champions League game and I do favor Dortmund a little bit.
Clubg Brugge vs Benfica should be a no brainer with the current form or lack of it of Brugge. But Brugge in the Champions League this year is something strange. While not superb in their own league, they can outperform themselves in the CL, the question is if this also will happen today. I do see more in the over for this game.

After looking at the games from the Championship, non of these will make it to the ticket.

So, let's say:

• Arsenal vs City -> Over 2.5 goals -> Odds 1.93
• Club Brugge vs Benfica -> Over 2.5 goals -> Odds 1.91
• Dortmund won't loose at home. -> odds 1.4

Combined the odds are 5.161, more than good enough to play the ticket!

All bets are placed using this bookie!

Disclaimer

It is always a good idea to do your own research and to carefully consider the risks and potential returns before placing any bets. I am not a professional punter, for me it is just a hobby. I do place most of my bets in advance and do keep records of all my bets, but it is not encouraged to follow my bets blindly!