I've been checking their forecast on the CME FedWatch Tool every day. Few days ago, they predicted the federal funds rate cut will be starting May 2024. Now, it seems that they're leaning to that it will be starting Mar 2024.
I researched the average federal funds rate duration on my post. The average duration is around 5 months during the last century. It's been 4 months, since the federal funds rate pause started. I think although the Fed delays the federal funds rate cut, it will start within Mar 2024. Because, the statistics of the table of federal funds rate pause duration show it's up to 8 months. So, as far as they delay the federal funds rate cut, it would be starting within 4 months. Coincidentally, the next BTC 4th halving is scheduled to Apr 2024.
The probability of the bearish market condition for 1 month after the federal funds rate cut is ten-twenty twoth. You can check the source on my post. Therefore, you need to prepare the risk of market suddenly falling into a bearish market.
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