Take a look at the 10y-3m yield spread chart.

Compared to the past, 10y-3m U.S treasury yield spread inversion is the lowest. In the recent 40 years, the yield spread inversions necessarily followed recessions.

By the way, I found something in common the above chart. After the yield spread inversions peaked the lowest, and started the recovery, recessions occured some months later. It's interesting 🤔

It seems that the recent ATL(All Time Low) yield spread inversion occured May 2023, and started the recovery. Therefore, there might be a next recession within some months with respect to the quantitative investment.

So, I wondered the periods between 10y-3m yield spread inversions and recessions.

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7 months

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11 months

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4 months

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14 months

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The average period between recession dates and ATL yield spread inversion is 9 months.

If the recent ATL yield spread inversion occured May 2023, the next recession could be emerging to us Feb 2024. I hope that we avoid the next recession. It's the best scenario for long-term investors.