The FedWatch Tool shows that market participants anticipated the federal funds rate cut more than 3 times.

in hive-103599 •  last year  (edited)

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Powell, the chairmain of the Fed, said that there will be the interest rate cut 3 times next year. However, it seems that market participants don't agree it.

Well, the most important thing is whether there will be a recession in next year. The number of times of the interest cut depends on next year economic conditions.

So, there are 2 scenarios. Since 1980, there has been 4 times of 10y-3m yield spread inversions. The inversions have necessarily led to recessions. Therefore, when the crypto market condition and sentiment is bullish again, it needs to adjust the cash ratio of your investment portfolio. It's a very possible and worst scenario next year.

Next scenario is optimistic. The soft landing succeds next year, and next recession is delayed few years later. If yes, the crypto market will be mainly bullish without a huge correction the end of 2024 or Q1~Q2 2025.

No one knows what's gonna be happening. The bext strategy is to prepare many scenarios. That's all.

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