Question 1
Create 5 questions that can be used in the Predictive Market. And explain what 2 of them consist of. Be creative and explain in detail.
Question 1
Will Lionel Messi play in PSG's next league match against Stade Brestois on Friday 20th August 2021?
Lionel Messi, arguably the best footballer on earth recently made worldwide headlines for completing a transfer move from Barcelona to Paris Saint-Germain F.C on a one-year contract. He was officially unveiled as a PSG player on the 15th of August 2021.
PSG's next league match is on Friday against a french club Stade Brestois, who are currently 11th on the league table and PSG stands at 3rd position.
With PSG's impressive signing of Lionel Messi, there is much speculation by PSG fans who are eager to watch Messi play wearing the Paris Saint-Germain jersey, on if Messi will play in the next match, which if he does, it will be his first match played as a PSG player.
Options
1- Yes | vote cost $0.70
With a successful transfer deal, unveiling ceremony, and player league registration, there are high speculations that Lionel Messi will feature in PSG's next game on Friday 20th August 2021.
2- No | vote cost $0.30
The chances of Lionel Messi playing in PSG's next match are low. He still needs time to adapt to Paris Saint-Germain's football-playing tactics.
Question 2
Will Bitcoin reach the $64,800 All time high price before 30th September 2021 ?
The cryptocurrency's last bull cycle that started last year 2020 after the COVID-19 market panic crash, saw the price of Bitcoin reach a new all-time high of $64,800 in April 2021.
The pullback dropped the price of Bitcoin to a recent low around $30,000 to retest strong support. There are speculations from crypto enthusiasts that the bear cycle is over, complimented by the recent break of a strong resistance witnessed around $40,000.
With the break of the resistance, and fundamental contributions, an increase in the number of speculations by crypto enthusiasts, forecasting that price will reach an all-time high before the 30th of September 2021.
Options
1- Yes | Vote cost $0.55
There are strong technical indications that Bitcoin price will reach the $64,800 All-time high price before 30th September 2021.
2- No | Vote cost $0.45
No, the current bullish move is a pullback for a continuation to the downside. The price of Bitcoin will not reach an all-time high before the 30th of September 2021.
Question 3
Will Los Angeles Lakers basketball team win their 2021/2022 season game opener against golden state warriors on the 19th of October 2021?
Options
1- Yes | Vote cost $0.80
2- No | Vote cost $0.20
Question 4
will Space travel be commercially approved by NASA before 31st December 2021 ?
Options
1- Yes | Vote cost $0.10
2- No | Vote cost $0.90
Question 5
Can Ethereum price stay above $2,500 till 31 August 2021?
Options
1- Yes | Vote cost $0.60
2- No | Vote cost $0.40
Question 2
Explore Polymarket, answer and explain the first 2 questions in the Crypto category. Show screenshot.
Polymarket is a predictive market website that allows interested investors to buy contracts of various predictions across many sectors, ranging from sports, politics, crypto, etc.
To explore polymarket, visit the official website Polymarket.com on the homepage, a sign-up is required, using a valid email address.
Enter email address and click sign up
Follow through with the email verification and log in to the created account.
The displayed page shows the core features of the polymarket website and they include:
Market
The market section of the platform contains the list of various bets available arranged in categories and sort. You can as well view resolved bets, in which the outcome has been determined, and lastly favorite best can be viewed as well.
Categories
The category contains the list of available sectors that prediction bets can be placed, from politics, art, business, school, coronavirus, crypto etc. This arrangement helps narrow down section of interest.
Sort
The available sector predictions can also be sorted by volume, liquidity, newest, and expiring predictions.
Show Resolved
This section of the platform show the resolved predictions, which the outcome has been determined and closed. The bet profit shared amongst the successfully predictors.
Deposit
To bet on predictions, a fund deposit is required. The native token used on polymarket is the USDC stable coin.
Deposits can be made in three ways, and they include:
USDC transfer
Polymarket issues a public address that USDC transfers can be sent to via any exchange wallet or non-custodial wallet.
Ethereum Deposit
Another deposit channel is through Ethereum. A minimum of 0.0126 ETH can be deposited which is equivalent to $37.77.
Wallet Alternative
Other deposit alternative channels are Peer-2-peer deposits via polygon, Metamask wallet, and debit and credit cards.
Withdrawal
You can as well withdraw from the polymarket platform. Processing withdrawal can take from 3 hours up to 6 hours.
First two Crypto category question
To answer the first two questions under the crypto category, first access the crypto prediction category.
Click on category and select Crypto
The first two predictions are:
Question 1
Will Cardano support smart contracts on Mainnet by October 1st, 2021?
The above question about Cardano implementing smart contracts has a prediction vote cost of $0.81 for the yes option, and $0.19 for the No option. The prediction resolve date is 1st October 2021, and the generated trade volume is $648,072 with a liquidity of $12,807. Majority of the prediction is voted Yes at the moment.
My Answer
Cardano's Alonzo hard fork plan on adding smart contracts to the Blockchain. This is one of the key points of the hard fork. FXstreet a popular financial report site Link reported that Cardano CEO Charles Hoskinson said that the date of the Alonzo hard fork will be announced soon in a recent tweet feed.
With the uncertainty around the Alonzo hard fork date, the speculation on the polymarket prediction website is very positive that Cardano will support smart contracts before 1st October, and the price chart of Cardano's native token ADA has been bullish in light of the announcements.
In my opinion, I will predict Yes that Cardano will support the use of smart contracts before 1st October 2021.
Question 2
What will the fully diluted market cap of SuperRare’s token be 1 week after it starts trading?
(Range: $250M - $3.00B)
The above question about the fully diluted market cap of super rare token $RARE has a prediction vote cost of $0.30 for the Yes option and $0.70 for the No option. The prediction resolve date is 31 December 2021, and the trade volume stands at $32,694 and generated liquidity of $6,383. The majority of the prediction is voted No at the moment.
My Answer
SuperRare is an Ethereum based NFT marketplace for Art and collectibles, this is similar to an art gallery where unique exotic art pieces are sampled and sold. The uniqueness of these NFT collectibles is guaranteed with the use of Verifiable Random Function (VRF) which assigns a unique value function to an NFT piece.
SuperRare has a native token called $RARE, which current market price is $1.01, and the market cap is $103,005,283, and the current diluted market cap is $1,012,273,
NFT collectibles are slowly gaining popularity within the crypto ecosystem but are yet to be fully adopted. Collectibles are very popular in Blockchain games. I believe in the future the value SuperRare will improve but for now, I will vote No.
The majority of the prediction voted No, which implies that the diluted market cap estimate will be below $1.08 B.
Question 3
Explain in detail a Predictive Market project, it cannot be Augur, Gnosis or those explained in class.
PlotX
PlotX link is a cross-chain marketplace for cryptocurrency predictions that yield high returns on correct predictions made. The predictions are created automatically within intervals of 4 hours, Daily and weekly.
To explore PlotX visit the website and click on sign in on the top right corner.
The sign-up can be done via email or by linking a web 3.0 wallet like Metamask, wallet connect.
I chose Email sign up for this demonstration, and verified the account.
On the displayed page, there are two main menus, the Market and Round History
Market
The Market section of the platform shows the available cryptocurrency price movement predictions within a given interval. Showing the number of predictions voted, the potential return on investment, and the time left for prediction settlement.
Clicking on any cryptocurrency prediction, the prediction question is displayed, the prediction options, and the number of participants that voted.
In the above image, the prediction asked if the price of DOGE to USD will rise before 6:00 pm?, With options of greater than $0.309 which cost 0.25 PLOT to vote and has a maximum reward of $13.
Another option is that the price of DOGE will stay flat between $0.306 -$0.309 at 6 pm, this cost $0.5 PLOT to vote and has a max reward of $13.
The last option is that the price of DOGE will be less than $0.306 at 6 pm, this costs 0.25 PLOT to vote and the max reward is $13.
Below the current prediction, a list of settled predictions is displayed, showing the settlement result and the reward earned.
Funding
Fund can be deposited and withdrawn on the plotX. The fund is converted to PlotX native token $PLOT which is the usable token within the plotX platform.
Depositing Funds
To deposit funds on plotX you have to buy the PLOT token and link the wallet to the platform to deposit the token.
Withdrawal
To withdraw from the plotX platform, first, link Any web 3.0 wallet to initiate the withdrawal process.
Round History
This section of plotX prediction Marketplace shows the accumulated history of all predictions made, which at the time of writing this is at 67,615, the total number of markets which is at 14,893, total invested prediction fund in participation, which is 624,618 ~ 7,514,103 PLOT, lastly the total ROI shared, which is $368,216 ~ 4,429,603 PLOT.
Question 4
For you, what will happen to Predictive Markets with blockchain technology? Who will benefit from them?
The integration of Blockchain technology to prediction markets will greatly increase the valuation of the industry. The similarities between predictions markets and options trading, gambling, and sports betting are very clear and these industries are valued at high stakes with an increasing number of players by the year. Prediction markets channel all sectors of possible interest to the marketplace, offering a wide range of prediction opportunities.
A Blockchain-based prediction market will encourage more crypto enthusiasts to utilize the fast money ROIs of betting in the prediction market. And also encourage a trustless prediction platform where participants are not required to trust any individual with their funds. This, in turn, reduces the chances of scams and non-settled bets.
Conclusion
The predictive market within the crypto ecosystem is still in its early phase, it offers a wide range of opportunities to earn from predictions similar to gambling where an outcome of a certain event is unknown. There are a few good predictive markets like plotX which is a cryptocurrency prediction marketplace and polymarket which offers a wide range of prediction sectors.
In general, the integration of blockchain technology into prediction markets will encourage the growth of the industry. It can equal centralized systems like casino gambles, sport bet companies, options trading platforms.
Thank you professor @pelon53 for this insightful and educative lesson.