Steemit Crypto Academy Homework Post for @pelon53.

in hive-108451 •  3 years ago 
Hello everyone and welcome to steemit crypto academy season 3 week 8.

Introduction


pelon53.PNG

I am very excited to be a part of professor @pelon53's class this week on Predictive Markets with blockchain technology.

We have been introduced to what predictive markets are, how they work, their future, some blockchain technologies that provide market, etc. We have also been given a task to complete.

I would now like to answer the questions given.

5 Questions That Can Be Used In The Predictive Market And Explaining What 2 Of Them Consist Of.


Question: Will Cryptocurrencies Get Government Regulation By The End Of November 30th 2021 at 11:59 UTC?


a. Yes ; $1.0 b. No; $0.60

Explanation;

Cryptocurrencies are digital or virtual assets that were created to replace or take over from the traditional financial system. The main aim and eye catching feature of cryptocurrencies is the fact that they were introduced as decentralized systems.

Being decentralized means that, there is no involvement of central authorities and financial authorities, third parties or intermediaries, and a user has complete freedom over assets performing transactions anytime and anywhere.

Cryptocurrencies have also revolutionalized the economic world by solving transparency problems. This has been achieved through the use of blockchains where all activities carried out on the blockchain have been recorded on distributed public ledgers and so it is very difficult to edit data or even attempt to delete data.

With all the facts about cryptocurrencies stated above, regulations from government would immediately remove the idea behind cryptocurrencies.

It is no secret that a lot of governments are against cryptos and are working towards regulating them but it would be difficult because the cryptocurrency world would strongly kick against it.

There are a lot of influential people like Elon Musk and twitter boss Jack Dorsey who have publicly expressed their support for cryptocurrencies and so before government can regulate it, there would be strong disapproval from the and other crypto lovers.

Because of the reasons above, I do not think cryptocurrencies will be regulated by the end of November 30th 2021 at 23:59 UTC so I would go for the option "b. ( $0.80 )."

Question: Can Steem Reach 1$ By The End Of 31st August 2021 at 11:59 UTC?


a. Yes; $3 b. No; 2

Explanation;

Most of us here are invested in steem and so I think it is right I create a question about steem.

Steem as a cryptocurrency earned on the steemit network or obtained through purchase as at the time of doing this assignment was at $0.5368 on coinmarketcap.


p1.png

Steem in 2018 on January 03 reached its all time high valued at $8.57 but has since not been able to break that resistance. Over the last month, steem has been rallying between $0.50 and $0.60 trying to break from that prize zone.

A lot of steemians and investors in steem are waiting for steem to rise above $1 soon and test that new resistance. But after studying the charts now and making some analysis, I do not think steem will reach $1 by the end of August 31st 2021 at 23:59 UTC.

So I would choose option "b. No; $2"

Question: How Far Will Chelsea Reach In The Champions League For The 2021/2022 Season Until 31st May 2022 at 11:59 UTC?


a. Quarter finals; $0.80 b. Semi finals; $0.90 c. Finals; $1.0 d. Group Stages; $2

Question: Will Cardano (ADA) Reach $5 By The End Of January 1st 2022 at 23:59 UTC?


a. Yes; $1.2 b. $1.5

Question: Will Donald Trump Publicly Accept Cryptocurrencies By The End Of December 31st 2022 at 11:59 UTC?


a. Yes; $10 b. No; $5

image.png

Exploration Of Polymarket.


The polymarket is a prediction market that runs on the Ethereum blockchain network allowing users to predict the future of cryptocurrencies, politics, NFTs, corana virus, among others.

For the purpose of this task, I would be exploring the polymarket.


p3.png

  • To fully explore polymarket, it is required to sign up.


p4.png

  • But even before you sign up, you can scroll down to search for and view the popular markets.


p5.png

  • To sign up, enter your email, click on sign up and go through the verification process.


p6.png


p8.png


p9.png

  • The first thing I noticed was the value of my portfolio, open positions and cash on the polymarket which were all $0.00


p10.png

  • The first feature I want to explore is the deposit feature. This feature allows you to deposit USDC and ETH funds into your polymarket account.


p11.png

  • You can also deposit funds by using polygon, metamask or your credit/debit card.


p12.png

  • There is also a withdraw feature that allows you to withdraw your USDC tokens or ETH.


p13.png

  • You can withdraw in 3 steps by initiating withdrawal, sending gas fees and then claiming withdrawal.

<center
p14.png

  • You can also withdraw alternatively by using polygon.


p15.png

  • The next feature to explore is market seen at the top of the screen.


p16.png

  • The value of account is displayed, there is an option to search for markets and popular markets are displayed.


p17.png

  • You can toggle the category option from all to any of the topics of choice.


p18.png

  • You can also sort the market by volume, resolved markets and favorite markets.


p19.png

  • I changed the categories to crypto and clicked on what will be the price of $DOGE on August 20, 2021.


p20.png

  • A new page was opened where I was asked what the price of doge will be between $0.10-$0.30 on august 20,2021. At the right hand side of the question, the end date, liquidity and trade volume is displayed.


p21.png

  • Just below the question, there is a graph that shows the trend in which the prediction is going and at the right hand side, we can pick outcome of the question by entering how much USDC we want to stake. You can choose by selecting long or short which gives you the suggested answer.


p23.png

  • In the screenshot, when you enter 15, while long is selected, it means you are betting that doge would be more than $0.29 which gives other details.

  • There's calculator at the bottom that tells you what your usdc is worth in $ and also an option to add liquidity.


p24.png

  • I selected the show resolved in the market section to reveal the resolved markets and their details.


p25.png

  • Next feature is the portfolio feature. This feature allows you to view your positions and liquidity added.


p26.png

  • At the bottom of the polymarket page, there is contact, privacy policy, terms of service, how it works, faq, blog, disclaimer.


p27.png

image.png

First 2 Questions In The Crypto Category Of Polymarket.


The first 2 questions in the crypto category is shown in the screenshot below which relates to Cardano supporting smart contracts and the fully diluted market cap of SuperRare's token.


p28.png

Question 1: Will cardano support smart contracts on Mainnet by October 1st, 2021?


p29.png

In this particular prediction question, the end date for this is given as October 1, 2021, trade volume is $647863, liquidity is $12758 with a yes answer valued at $0.81 and no answer valued at $0.19.

Cardano has gained a lot of popularity over the last year through important improvements made to the Cardano blockchain. The price of Cardano has been on the rise since last year till date from around $1.2 to about $2.15.

On 13th August, the InputOutputHKcomapny through its official twitter account tweeted saying that "We're targeting 12 September 2021 for the Alonzo upgrade bringing smart contracts to Cardano via a hard fork combination (HFC) event.


p47.png

source

The Alonzo update is very important for the implementation of smart contracts on Cardano and so with the statement from Input Output HK company, it is a certainty Cardano will get smart contracts.

A date has been given in the tweet which is earlier than the one in the bet hence corresponds to the yes answer. So people who have placed bets on yes should be very relaxed knowing they have a good chance of earning rewards.

There could be a delay to its released though but I think Cardanao will get smart contracts before October 1st 2021 so I would go with Yes; $0.81.


p29i.png

For Cardano to really make a statement in the crypto world smart contracts are important and so I strongly believe work is done seriously to implement it before the said date.

Question 2: What will the fully diluted market cap of SuperRare’s token be 1 week after it starts trading? (Range: $250M - $3.00B)

In this bet about SuperRare's token, it's end date has been given as December 31st 2021, trade volume $32,621, liquidity $6,332 with a long response valued at $0.31 and short valued at $0.69. Here long and sort is used because the market is scalar.


p30.png

Betting on long means that you believe the fully diluted market cap will be more than $1.10 billion and betting on short means fully diluted cap will be less than $1.10 billion.

What is meant by after it starts actively trading is that the token for the first time reaches over $10000 in volume. So after 1 week at 12pm ET or 4:00 UTC when SuperRare's token exceeds $10000 in volume, it's fully diluted market cap on coingecko will be used for the resolution of this market.

However should SuperRare within the duration of this market release a token the market will be resolved to a point between the lower bounds and upper bounds of the market.

Superare has launched a token and is giving 150 million airdrops to its platform users and artists with NFTs.


p46.png

source

With this token, there are plans to start using it for curation and governance on its platform and so it could be actively in trading soon with it's several users.

However, I do not think suparare's token can start actively trading by the end of December 31st 2021 and so I will bet on short; the fully diluted cap will be less than $1.10B.

image.png

A Predictive Market Project Other Than Augur, Gnosis And Those Explained In Class.


PlotX ( Uniswap of Prediction Markets ).


PlotX is a decentralized prediction market built on the Ethereum blockchain that allows you to predict the price of crypto assets and earn rewards.

PlotX creates a market with duration of hours, days or weeks with the use of AMM (Automated Market Marker). Plot X was created with 3 main aims; to be cost effective, increase fairness and remove risk associated with centralized betting platforms.

Plot X deals with prediction of popular crypto assets like BTC, ETH, DOGE, etc focusing more on the crypto pairs. PlotX is described as easy and easy to use so it widely referred to as the uniswap of prediction markets.

The token of PlotX is Plot and users with this plot token can take part in governance and staking for more rewards. Plot as a time of doing this task is $0.0823 on coinmarketcap. You can purchase the plot token on exchanges like Uniswap, Quickswap, MEXC, etc.


p31.png

Because PlotX is decentralized and open source, signing up is very easy as you can just sign up with your e-mail without any KYC verification. Engaging in prediction is very easy as you just need to connect a wallet like metamask, select a market, predict the trend of the asset and wait for the results to earn rewards.

PlotX supports 6 cryptocurrencies in their polygon version; plot, usdc, usdt, weth, matic and dai. Rewards are earned from reward pools which can vary depending on the amount of plot staked in the pool.

So those with the correction prediction outcomes have the rewards shared amongst them through a computational calculation; reward pool x number of positions held by user / total number of positions in the particular prediction market. The result from this calculation is distributed to each winner of from that pool.

  • To explore PlotX, visit PlotX


p32.png

  • Signing in is very easy because you just have to connect to your wallet or e-mail.


p33ii.png

  • In this case I will connect to my metamask wallet.


p33i.png

  • Click on metamask, unlock it, click on next, click on connect. Wallet is connected.


p34.png


p35.png


p36.png


p37.png

  • There's various markets where you can enter to predict.


p38.png

  • I selected the doge/usdt weekly weekly to explore its details.


p38i.png

  • I was asked to predict if the price of doge to usdt go up or down at August 26 2021 1:00pm. The number of participants is displayed, time to participate, total pool, etc.


p39.png

  • When you scroll down, there's a live chart for doge from tradingview with indicators and tools for technical analysis.


p40.png

  • When you scroll down further, there's data for previous rounds which show when they were settled, settlement time, total pool, predictions, and how the asset went down whether up, down or flat etc.


p41.png

  • I made my prediction that doge will go up and the next was to make payment.


p42.png

  • My potential winning, position, etc was displayed but I couldn't continue due to insufficient balance. Prediction fees are required.


p43.png

  • You can filter the market from all to the pair of choice.


p44.png

  • You can also change the type from all to the duration of choice.


p45.png

Future Of Predictive Markets With Blockchain Technology And Who Will Benefit From Them?


There are predictive markets that run on blockchain technologies like the augur protocol, ome.ith, plotx, etc but with vey little exposure. There are a lot of advantages with using blockchain based predictive markets but a lot of people do not know about them.

I think with the right advertisement and exposure, they are the future of betting. Augur project is the first blockchain based predictive market that makes improvements to its platform and has partnered with polygon to provide better experience.

A lot of money goes into betting or gambling which when invested in blockchain based markets, would go a long way to helping the growth of the cryptocurrency world.

This year alone even with the coronavirus pandemic, there has been over $1T pumped into the betting world. If all that money was used in the crypto world, the prices of cryptocurrencies would only continue to go higher.

Blockchain based predictive markets would benefit individuals users a lot because they can bet how much they want anonymously without risk of being cheated or losing vital information.

Also, because there are no third parties involved in these predictive markets, you can withdraw your earned rewards easily without having to go through stressful procedures or receiving them in installments as seen with the centralized betting platforms when you win big.

So the future of blockchain based predictive markets can be very profitable and bright with the right advertisement because it has a lot of advantages.

In terms of people who can benefit from these, individuals stand to benefit a lot because there is no risk of manipulation of results, rewards won are safe, there's privacy, no need to submit personal documents for verification, and there is transparency.

Also, the cryptocurrency world stands to benefit because a lot of people using blockchain predictive markets means more investment in the cryptocurrency world and hence more bullish runs.

image.png

Conclusion.


I must say thankyou to professor @pelon53 for this very informative lecture.

Predictive markets based on blockchain technologies a re decentralized, open source, transparent, cost effective and risk free. They solve the challenges of the centralized predictive markets.

Examples of blockchain predictive markets are Augur, PlotX, Polymarket, Gnosis, Omen.eth, among others.

The future of blockchain predictive markets would be very good but needs more investors and this can be done through better advertisement.

Through this lecture, I have been able to explore polymarket and PlotX and have realized they offer good prediction services.

Thank you.

Authors get paid when people like you upvote their post.
If you enjoyed what you read here, create your account today and start earning FREE STEEM!
Sort Order:  
Loading...