Hello everybody, Hope you all are fine and in good health!
My this post is a Homework Task assigned by professor @pelon53 which is about Predictive Markets with blockchain technology
Q. 1)
Create 5 questions that can be used in the Predictive Market. And explain what 2 of them consist of. Be creative and explain in detail.
Will Elon Musk will himself step on moon by the end of 2021?
Will ADA reach 3$ up till the end of the August 2021?
Will there be more than daily 200,000 cases of Covid at the end of October 2021?
Will time travelling be a thing ta the end of 2030?
Will Bitcoin reach its all-time high price of $64,000 before the end of the September 2021?
Will Bitcoin reach its all-time high price of $64,000 before the end of the September 2021?
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $64,800 in April 2021. The market then dipped to the lowest price of 30,000$ but since it has climbed up again to 40,000$ speculators are predicting that the market can any time touch its highest level again.
Due to this very reason the speculators are very active on predictive markets.
Yes |Vote cost $0.60
Strong technical indications suggest that the Bitcoin price will reach the $64,800 which is its all-time high price before 30th September 2021.
No | Vote cost $0.40
The current bullish move is a retest and then it will continue to move downward and hence it will not reach its all-time high level in the near future.
Will there be more than daily 200,000 cases of Covid at the end of October 2021?
According to the New York Times the daily average cases reported are 145,913 on Aug 20. The recorded death rate is 973 deaths.
The status of administration of vaccines is also improving according to the stats reported by New York Times.
There can be two predictions here
Yes |Vote cost $0.50
The spread of virus will continue to increase with fourth wave hitting hard and 200,000 cases of Covid will be reported at the end of October 2021
No | Vote cost $0.50
The administration of vaccines will bring down the cases and 200,000 cases of Covid will not be reported at the end of October 2021.
Q. 2)
Explore Polymarket, answer and explain the first 2 questions in the Crypto category. Show screenshot.
Log in to your Polymarket account
If you do not have an account earlier you can simply add your email and then verify it by clicking on the link sent to your email
The features of the marketplace:
Market feature:
The market feature is simply provides a list of marketplaces that you can bet these include sports, politics, and crypto etc. as shown below.
On the top panel we see options like the volume, type of the market, sorting option, and categories. The categories provide you the list of markets
The next sort option helps in sorting these markets on the basis of newest, liquidity etc
The show resolved option lets us see all the resolved bets
Funds deposit and withdrawal:
Click on the deposit option located on the main page on the top right corner
To add funds copy the wallet address, buy coins or use alternative options listed below
To withdraw funds follow the three steps mentioned below as shown in the screenshot
Answer and explain the first 2 questions in the Crypto category
The first two questions in the crypto category are:
Will Cardano support smart contracts on Mainnet by October 1st, 2021?
Cardeno’s CEO has been reported saying that Cardano will soon be issuing a date for issuing smart contracts on Mainnet. His Tweet was followed by speculation and people expecting smart contracts on the mainnet before October. The tweet was confirmed by various renowned sites such as FXstreet, a popular financial report site. On this prediction the majority of the users have gone with Yes as the true option.
In my view too since the CEO has reported a news about the date coming soon the prediction can be true till date therefore my answer is Yes.
What will the fully diluted market cap of SuperRare’s token be 1 week after it starts trading?(Range: $250M - $3.00B)
SuperRare has the native token RARE$. It is an NFT marketplace for Art and collectibles like a digital cart gallery. The details of the RARE$ at the time of writing are:
Price: $1.01,
Market cap: $103,005,283
Current diluted market cap: $1,012,273
The non-fungible tokens are on the rise. Their adoption is widely increasing but they yet have a lot more to accomplish. The prediction market has a big difference from the current price. Seeing at the current market cap and its journey I do not see it to increase so rapidly and therefore my answer would be No in this case as is of the majority of the participants.
Q. 3)
Explain in detail a Predictive Market project, it cannot be Augur, Gnosis or those explained in class.
PlotX is a predictive market place where different users earn by betting on the future trends of various cryptocurrencies. It offers a long list of currencies on which you can bet.
We will explore it like:
Signup process
Features of the marketplace
Explore any ongoing bet
The team behind the marketplace
The accumulated bets and price pool
The signup process:
Search the official website of PlotX or click on this link
Add your email or connect through any of the wallets to sign up
I am using an option of Email to signUp
Verify your email by clicking on the link sent to your email and your wallet will successfully connected
Features of the marketplace:
The market feature:
It gives us the option to see a list of cryptocurrencies and prediction markets
In the live markets option we have the live bets
The top bar presents option like the type of market, volume, prediction and settlement date and much more
In the Round history we have the settled bets or in settlement bets here we can also see the overall markets created, total predictions and participants etc as shown below
Explore any ongoing bet:
If we click on any live bet we see the following screen appearing. It is with the chart and voting options along with the rewards
The team behind the marketplace:
The PlotX has an experienced and active team behind it the members of the team of PlotX are:
It is widely supported by its growing community on Twitter, discord and Telegram.
Q. 4)
For you, what will happen to Predictive Markets with blockchain technology? Who will benefit from them?
Predictive markets on the blockchain technology will prove highly beneficial for both the blockchain as well as the predicted market users. For blockchain users the predictive markets will open new channels of investment whereas those already on the predictive market can benefit from the safe and secure blockchain protocols.
For those who do not trade cryptocurrencies can earn by betting and predicting the prices of these currencies in future. With blockchain technology the predictive markets will become more manageable and will be able to handle much more users and bets as they can now. This will also increase effectiveness and greatly reduce the chances of disputed or unsettled bets.
Conclusion
In a nutshell predictive markets hold great potential in channeling interest from all sectors of different markets. The integration of the blockchain technology and the predictive market places is still under the pipeline but its implementation can really prove fruitful for the better management and handling of the bets on the predictive markets. Much more can be achieved in terms of mass adoption and security.