Study finds the Arctic snowfalls will become rainy by 2060

(Wikimedia Commons)

A new modeling showed the transition of precipitation in the Arctic from snow to rain by 2060.

Previously, stable rains were predicted for 2080. The study also predicts an environmental crisis for Arctic animals.

The Arctic is experiencing severe climatic changes that are developing faster than the rest of the planet.

This year, on August 14, rain fell at the highest point in Greenland for the first time on record.

In addition, rains are already being observed in the Atlantic sector. This indicates the beginning of a large-scale transition of Arctic precipitation from snow to rain.

Earlier, at the fifth stage of the international Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which studies and simulates global climatic processes, scientists predicted regular rainfall in the Arctic in 2080.

But with the advent of more accurate and sophisticated sixth generation models, this transition will occur two decades earlier.

A group of Canadian researchers led by Michelle R. McCrystall from the University of Manitoba compared the results of CMIP5 and CMIP6 and made conclusions about the transition of precipitation in the form of snow to rain by 2060.

The CMIP software's conjugate matching method has helped to reveal how the distribution of precipitation varies from snow to rain over the seasons.

CMIP5 is based on Arctic climate data (areas above 70 degrees north latitude) for the period from 1960 to 2005, and CMIP6 operates on data from 1960 to 2014.

To compare the two models, the authors took the same level of greenhouse gas emissions and radiative forcing - 8.5 watts per square meter.

Both models show a constant increase in rainfall in all seasons.

At the end of the century (2100) compared to 2000 in winter, there is an increase in precipitation of CMIP6 by 422% compared to 260% in CMIP5; the corresponding figures are 261% and 141% in the spring, 71% and 51% in the summer, and 268% and 192% in the fall.

In summer and autumn, an increase in precipitation is accompanied by a decrease in snowfall and an increase in the percentage of rainfall.

In winter, however, snowfall continues to increase and remains the dominant type of precipitation at the end of the century over much of the Arctic.

According to the authors, this may partially offset the rainy summers and fall. In the spring, throughout the century, the amount of snowfall remains practically unchanged.

The authors also made forecasts for three warming scenarios by the end of the 21st century: 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees Celsius.

If the air warms by 3 degrees, the precipitation in the form of snow will practically stop, giving way to rain. Under warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2 degrees, rain will still prevail.

Climatologists explain that the increase in rainfall is associated with higher temperatures and active melting of glaciers.

An increase in the area of open water naturally increases evaporation; water does not stay in the atmosphere for a long time, since there is a lot of it, and it falls out in the form of rain.

In addition, when glaciers melt, carbon dioxide is released, which warms the atmosphere and again affects melting.

The authors write that the transition to rain in the Arctic will have far-reaching consequences.

Plants freeze due to rains in cold climates, dramatically reducing the amount of food available to arctic herbivores.

At the same time, the rain falling on the snow forms a crust, which makes it difficult to find available food.

Dietary changes will affect populations of wild reindeer and musk oxen.

At the same time, the authors note an increase in the populations of migratory birds, as the Arctic will become more humid and warmer.

Sources:

• Nature Communications: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27031-y
• The Conversation: https://theconversation.com/less-snow-more-rain-in-store-for-the-arctic-study-finds-172732

#arctic #climate #glaciers #science #stem