All you have to do is wait for a bull market and then the crypto prices will rise, and then you will be rich.
And then, the next week, the market crashes, and you lose all your money.
(Well, not really, you still have all the bitcoin, or whatever shit coin you "invested" in. It's all still there on the blockchain, it just isn't worth as much.)
The bitcoin market cycle seems to be about 4 years, which matches the election cycle… wait, i mean the halving cycle. And since bitcoin is the big doggo in the crypto market, everything else seems to follow suit.
So, you buy low, and then you sell high. And then you have a lot of dollars that are inflating away.
Simple, right?
HODL damnit!
Crypto trading is hard.
Ripple could have HUGE NEWS!!!, and the price doesn't even fluctuate. (this has happened several times)
Bitcoin could have a Tiny Rumor, and the price jumps and crashes, or crashes then rebounds higher. (this has happened a lot of times)
So many people just throw up their (diamond) hands and say HODL! Hold On for Dear Life.
Sure, you gave away 60-90% of your gains, but bitcoin has gone from $1,000 to $60,000 in about 7 years. From a month's rent to enough to live on for a year. And the next 8 years will probably see bitcoin prices in astronomical numbers. Like, buy a big yacht, pay off national debts ranges.
All you had to do was continue accumulating. And HODL.
But you did give up $40,000, if you would have just sold at the top, and bought back in at the bottom.
Bitcoin is going to die
But, but, but, if you HODL for too long, everything is going to crash to zero!
Wait, everything ELSE, is going to crash to zero compared to bitcoin.
Or maybe not. The EMP + Nuclear winter + Climate change raising the sea levels is going to mean that bitcoin will be worthless! Well, if all that happens, if any one of those happen, all currency is going to be worthless. Even gold.
So, this is really not a sure thing, however, i will bet on the sun rising tomorrow. If it doesn't, my bets are the least of my worries.
This Time It's Different
The problem with cycles is that they do not always continue. Or there are bigger cycles in play that you are unaware of.
If bitcoin continues to increase in value, and The US dollar continues to lose value, there will be a point in time where no one will accept dollars for bitcoin. And we may be closer to that time then we can imagine.
A weird thing is happening. There is a bitcoin ETF. This is very weird because, with the same money, you could just buy bitcoin (theoretically. But IRS and other laws prohibit moving money out of "the market" with inuring costs) So, all this money is in bitcoin, but is not in bitcoin.
There is a problem with ETFs. Its value can only go up so fast. If it goes up faster, circuit breakers will be tripped. And then if bitcoin goes up even more, more faster, then a lot of people are going to really upset that they are in the ETF. Bitcoin's price has been very volatile. And the ETF's price is probably not going to keep up very well.
The thing about this ETF vs real bitcoin thing is that it may break the market. Where, everyone dumps the ETF, and tries to buy real bitcoin. Which cause so much of a surge, that there just isn't enough supply. Bitcoin goes no Ask. No one is selling. What is the price of bitcoin?
On another tact, it is very possible we start to see actual adoption of cryptos, and all the prices go up, and never come down. The cycles of before adoption will not be the same as those after adoption. But where? when? how much?
This is going to be a crazy ride.
A lot of people are going to get very rich.
And a lot of people are going to lose their shirts.
#1 Never bet more than you can lose
#2 Start writing blogs on a platform that pays in crypto
#3 HODL
Wait! #2 and #3 are not necessarily rules you should follow. Your mileage will vary.
Bitcoin will probably 20x this bull run. (from where it is now).
20 times your money is insane!
And, it may give back a great portion of that increase.
Other cryptos will 100x!
But, what do you do with your crypto gains?
- Buy stable coins
- Buy bitcoin
Well, bitcoin is probably going to crash 60-80% after this run, which means you could be back around today's price. Or maybe not. $100k will probably be the new floor.
And many stable coins are not as backed by dollars as they say they are. The stable coin may disappear. But even worse, it is tied to the dollar, which is disappearing.
So, which do you choose?
Either way, you will have a lot of wealth to deal with.