Last year, Carlos Alegria, a data scientist with Phinance Technologies, conducted a retrospective cohort study of excessive deaths among people between the ages of 15-44 in England and Wales and found that while excess deaths, as in all registered deaths, only increased about 15% in 2021 and 10% in 2022, from the expected baseline, excess deaths due to malignant neoplasms increased 6.7% in 2021 and 33.3% in 2022. For perspective, excess deaths only increased 5% in 2020, when the pandemic began, while deaths due to malignant neoplasms actually fell 6.7% the same year. Per capita, deaths from malignant neoplasms rose from a decade low of 12.5 per 100K in 2020 to 14 per 100K in 2021 and 17.5 per 100K in 2022. In the prior decade, this rate had fallen 14.7% from 15 per 100K in 2010 to 12.8 per 100K in 2019. In absolute numbers there are 1,000 more deaths from malignant neoplasms from a 2015-2019 average of 3,000 deaths to 3,200 in 2021 and 4,000 in 2022. In 2020, absolute deaths from malignant neoplasms fell to 2,800 for the same age cohort. While excess deaths followed a similar trajectory from 2019-2021, rising from 67 per 100K to 69 per 100K between 2019-2020 to 75 per 100K in 2021, they declined to 71 per 100K in 2022; However, at the time of this study annualized excess mortality for 2023 had risen 20%. Almost a third of registered deaths in this age range did not have a cause of death so the deaths from cancer could likely be even higher. Excess disability claims by people in this age cohort also rose 39.4% between 2021 and 2022 from the 5 year average.
This is not the only one to find a substantial increase in excess deaths after 2020.
Thailand recorded 80 deaths from 24,400 confirmed COVID infections (CFR = 0.327) 11 months after their first confirmed COVID case on Jan 8, 2020. 11 months after their vaccination rollout on Feb 14, 2021, Thailand recorded 20,445 deaths from 2.253 million confirmed cases (CFR = 0.9)
Similarly, the Philippines had a 1% drop in excess deaths the year the pandemic began and a 43.2% surge in excess deaths the year of the vaccine rollout. Registered deaths surged from 613,936 in 2020 to 879,429 in 2021.
COVID19 only accounted for 12.8% of total deaths in 2021. Ischaemic heart diseases were the leading cause of death constituting nearly 18% of total deaths.
Ischaemic heart diseases were also the leading cause of death in 2022 constituting 18.3% of deaths in the country while COVID19 deaths constituted less than 3% of total deaths.
Canada had more COVID19 deaths in 2022 compared to 2021 despite the proliferation of several fold less virulent omicron sub-variants. In 2022, deaths attributed to COVID19 increased 36.6% from the prior year, from 14,466 to 19,716, including the proportion of deaths among senior citizens (91.4%), despite achieving a vaccination rate of >80% in 2021. Life expectancy also fell for the third consecutive year.
Life Expectancy in Canada Fell for The Third Year in A Row
A regression analysis of Eurostat all cause mortality data for 31 countries, weighted by population size, in the first 9 months of 2022 and vaccine uptake data from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control for the previous year, published in the Asian Pacific Journal of Health Sciences, found that a 1% increase in vaccine uptake in 2021 is associated with a 0.105% increase in monthly all cause mortality in the first 9 months of 2022: a borderline statistically significant result. All cause mortality increases were found to be highest in nations with the highest 2021 vaccination rates and relatively lower or even negative, indicating a decline in all cause mortality, in nations with lower 2021 vaccination rates. This was found after controlling for average all cause mortality in 2020-2021 divided by average all cause mortality between 2016-2019 to eliminate the bounce back effect that may have occurred. These 5 regression models also included nation level median age and 2019 per capita GDP to adjust for differential rates of all cause mortality due to a higher proportion of senior citizen population and impoverished populations.
I’m sure there is much more research on excess mortality between 2021 and now but this is all I have come across so far.