The price of Bitcoin (BTC) could experience significant fluctuations if Donald Trump begins his new term as U.S. President. Analysts widely predict that a Trump administration might bring regulatory shifts favoring cryptocurrencies, which could have both immediate and long-term impacts on Bitcoin's valuation.
Immediate Impact
Bitcoin historically reacts to political events, and Trump's presidency is no exception. His potential policies are expected to be more crypto-friendly compared to current regulations, which may reduce market uncertainties. Analysts at Standard Chartered predict that BTC's price could initially increase by around 4%, reaching approximately $76,000 shortly after the election. A more optimistic scenario, with Republicans gaining control of both the presidency and Congress, sets year-end targets as high as $125,000.
Trump has signaled intentions to overhaul crypto regulations, including possible replacements in key regulatory agencies such as the SEC. Pro-crypto policies, like clarity on taxation or the legal status of Bitcoin, could encourage institutional and retail adoption, further driving demand.
Long-Term Prospects
The broader Bitcoin trajectory will also depend on macroeconomic factors and the halving cycle's effects. Bitcoin's last halving in 2024 reduced miner rewards, typically followed by significant price growth in the subsequent 12–18 months. Some analysts anticipate a Bitcoin bull run peaking in mid-2025 due to this dynamic, potentially pushing prices well beyond current levels.
Risks to Consider
While optimism surrounds a Trump presidency, uncertainties remain. Market overreaction to regulatory announcements or geopolitical tensions could inject volatility. Additionally, global economic pressures, such as inflation or policy decisions by other nations, will continue to play critical roles.
In summary, Bitcoin could see an initial rally with Trump's presidency, potentially hitting new highs depending on policy clarity and market sentiment. However, broader macroeconomic trends and long-term adoption rates will ultimately determine its price trajectory.