Contest - My Thoughts On The Global Recession || Impact of Global Recession and its Remedy.

_{Hello Everyone. I am @shiftitamanna
From #Bangladesh}

Assalam Alaikum friends. How are you, everyone? I hope everyone is doing well. I'm fine too. Today I will participate in a beauty contest on Steam for Bangladesh Community. The contest was organized by our respected brother @ripon0630. The central theme of the contest is Share Your Thoughts On The Global Recession. I want to thank @ripon0630 brother for making this topical issue a part of the contest.

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We live in the most chaotic and unpredictable times in decades. The elements of a global recession are now quite evident. An economic crisis following an interest rate hike of this magnitude could reduce global gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 0.5 percent in 2023 or per capital income by 0.4 percent. Such a situation, by definition, is called a global recession.

Do you think we will face a global recession in the coming years? Based on what factors have you confirmed that there may be a global recession?

The fear of the Recession has started again around the world. High inflation and policy interest rate hikes to counter it, the Ukraine-Russia war—all raise the risk of Recession. According to the US research organization, the global recession risk is 98.1 percent. That means the risk of a recession in 2023 is intensifying, A global recession can be confirmed based on the following factors :

• High-Interest Rate :
  High-interest rates make borrowing money more expensive, discouraging consumers and businesses from borrowing money to buy or invest. Lower consumption leads to less demand for goods and services in the economy. Businesses employ fewer people due to reduced demand and subsequent production shortfalls. Decreased spending in the economy reduces inflation. However, if high-interest rates contract the economy too much, it could lead to a recession.

• The stock market crash :
  the stock market will lead to a Recession. Investors often need more capital to invest in the business as the share price falls. If businesses can't raise money for growth and operating expenses, it may lead to layoffs or hiring freezes.

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• inflation :
  Inflation reduces the price of goods and services sold in the market, encouraging people to wait to buy until prices are lower. This is often associated with high-interest rates, causing people to wait to buy because they cannot afford to borrow at such a high-interest rate.

How do you think the global recession will affect the job market

The job market follows trends as the economy expands or contracts. Its economic bubble created many jobs, lowered unemployment, and increased job security. On the other hand, 1 out of 5 workers lost their job during the Great Recession. Its effect is given below :

• Retrenchment and change of class :
  During years of economic expansion, companies may spend more on employee benefits and hiring or hiring. They may feel more comfortable about eliminating minor redundancies and overlaps.

• Decrease in employee benefits :
  Companies focus on running more efficiently during less profitable years and cutting costs. While your role and benefits may be on the chopping board during a recession, the general employer-employee power balance shifts to the employee. If your company feels your role is essential, you can ask for incentives such as better benefits to stay.

• Decrease in income :
  The best way for a company to save money in tough times is to reduce wages temporarily. As an employer reduces business costs, they may have to reduce your salary to match.

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• A recruitment freeze law :
  As the economy expands, industries often grow. This time, the job markets is flooded with opportunities. But the opposite happens when the economy collapses. Companies prepare for the worst and levy any excess costs.

what skills and qualities will be most in demand in the future?

Humans can generally be two types of skills—technical and Human. We learn about different subjects and the application of technical skills through studying at university. Apart from this, there are several skills that one has to master. All over the world, there is an emphasis on developing 'soft skills' in the workplace or universities.

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Soft skills generally refer to these interpersonal skills. No matter how technically proficient you are, it's easier to succeed in a career with people skills. The following tasks will be more in demand in the future.

1. Business and product development, pharmaceutical industry.
2. Data analyst, corporate sector.
3. Industrial Engineering, Manufactured Garments.
4. Robotics process automation, information technology.
5. Product design and benefits, agriculture.

What lessons can be learned from past global recessions, and how can these be applied to better prepare for future economic downturns?

The year carries the risk of a Great Depression for the entire world. The prime minister clarified that "a global fear is that 2023 will be a year of a major crisis," adding that food insecurity could be prominent in the year. For that, we have to prepare in advance. The Prime Minister also said what that preparation could be. Agriculture is our salvation in times of danger. So he advised those who have land to start farming. He also said about a separate budget for the agriculture sector to deal with this crisis.

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That inclusive development strategy has worked well in dealing with the economic shock of Covid-19. The government and the central bank have jointly adopted financial inclusion strategies in the form of incentive programs. Although the World Bank and IMF put global growth at around 3 percent this year and next year, those institutions have highlighted in their economic estimates the growth rate of Bangladesh will more than double in these two years.

In this context, we have to take steps with great prudence by taking the honorable Prime Minister's warning seriously. If some policies are followed, Bangladesh will do better than many countries in dealing with this crisis.

Do you have any prior preparation? What are they?

Bangladesh Bank and the government have joined hands to administer the incentive program as much as six percent of GDP. In line with this, the Honorable Prime Minister is taking multifaceted initiatives for the stability of the macroeconomy and emphasizing, on the other hand, to deal with the global economic Recession caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. In such a micro policy, not even an inch of land falls.

• Agriculture should be taken as our most effective defense, as said by the Prime Minister. Therefore, budgetary support, loans, expansion, and marketing support should be provided on easy terms.

• The continuous rise in interest rates in the developed world has also affected developing countries like ours. Apart from this, the currency value of these countries had to be devalued at a considerable rate.

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• The global gas market needs help to meet Europe's demand. In this scenario, it is easy to imagine how much pressure the increase in fuel prices and the dollar will put on an import-dependent economy like ours.

• War hurts a country like ours. Prices of many food items, including wheat and edible oil, have increased. Supply is also challenging to obtain. All these are working behind our import inflation.

• Expatriates who remit expatriate income through war transfers and bring money into the country through freelancing must sell dollars at a lower rate. The demand for the same dollar exchange rate for all foreign earners is reasonable. A permanent decision is needed in this regard.

Many more such policy suggestions could be made. There is an opportunity to introduce new intelligent policies by reviewing the rules and regulations with all the stakeholders. Everyone should be patient in this disaster. Nothing can be done to create panic in the market. Relying on this tried and tested policy framework. If we proceed with calculations, we will be able to maintain Bangladesh's development reputation by weathering the ongoing Recession or future Great Recession. Everyone has to work together for this.

I would like to invite my friends @mdkamran99, @enamul17 & @paholags to participate in this contest. Click here to go to the contest link.

Thank you very much everyone for reading my post.

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