INTRODUCTION
Let me underline that this post is not financial advice and I'm only sharing my point of view on the discussed topic. Knowing that I may be absolutely wrong, I'm also hoping to receive some valuable feedback from you dear readers.
Whether you would agree with my conclusions or not - I will gladly learn your opinion on the current situation in the crypto market.
WAS RECENT CORRECTION TO BE EXPECTED?
Just the other day when the price of Bitcoin was already reaching 19k USD, I've talked to a few PH members about the upcoming correction and it struck me, that the level of optimism has been so high that almost everyone expected a new ATH (all-time high) to happen very soon. Also, a majority of those I spoke to didn't expect a correction to be happening anytime soon.
However, I myself couldn't imagine that the recent BTC price parabolic upward move will continue at its current rate. Luckily for me, at the beginning of this week I've made the decision to move all my little resources to a more stable coin USDT (Tether). Right before the bloodbath took place this thursday. So imagine my relief when I woke up this Thursday morning ...
On Thursday, we've witnessed a heavy BTC drop since 19k usd all the way to 16.5k usd and many of us probably wondered if this is the end of the current correction. Or maybe we should prepare ourselves for an even deeper one?
Let me share my own view and back it up with some personal EXPECTATIONS.
READY FOR ANOTHER DROP?
At the time of writing this post, the price of Bitcoin seems to stabilize itself at around 17k and an entire market seems to be holding its breath. Trade volumes on coinmarketcap.com dropped from 260mln (just yesterday) to below 150mln right now. THAT'S HUGE!
At the same time, if we look at the volumes and price action on Bitcoin, we may see a very interesting pattern. One that I'm always looking for. One that 9 times out of 10 are ending up with sell-out and price going down:
Within those few years in the crypto market, I've learned something: whenever prices are growing and volume are slowing down, then most of the time it means that this growth is not strong enough to sustain itself. I like to imagine that the current price growth is moving forward on "fumes". Not long-lasting.
Since yesterday, BTC price went up from 16,4k to 17k, and at the same time volumes dropped from 62mln ... all the way to 33mln. That is MASSIVE. That's almost a 50% volume drop in such a short timeframe. Based on just that simple "analysis", I would expect another heavy drop in BTC price coming soon.
There is also IMPORTANT news that I would like to share with you. One that most of you may have never heard about:
100 mln LIQUIDATED on DeFi Protocol Compound
It seems to me, that not many people out there are aware of this MASSIVE liquidation which took place this Thursday. I couldn't find even one video on youtube about this topic and the media did not seem to talk much about it either. And yet, I found it to be very important to realize what had just happened.
In a nutshell: over 100mln usd just simply "vanished" from the market. Simply because those who borrowed FIAT / other crypto using Compound DeFi didn't have deposited collateral large enough. And to make things worse - many seemed to leverage their investments.
So ... those investors are being left with borrowed funds, however they have lost all deposited collateral.
You could read more about it here:
$100 Million Liquidated on Defi Protocol Compound Following Oracle Exploit
Why is it important?
Can you imagine being one of those investors who were affected by this brutal liquidation? How many of them will lose trust towards crypto? How many will walk away from this industry, considering it to be still not mature enough? And most importantly: how to even replace a 100mln USD "hole" which kind of disappeared?
That is HELL OF ALOT OF MONEY. And we can assume that those funds are gone forever. And some investors who lost it, will be gone forever as well.
Also, DeFi has been fueling the cryptospace in 2020 and that massive liquidation may bring much unwanted attention. I wouldn't be surprised if regulators would step in and start regulating DeFi. Especially if similar incidents will repeat itself in the future.
OTHER TERRIFIC NEWS - 1% BITCOIN seized by Chinese police
Chinese Police Seize 1% of Bitcoin’s Total Supply.
This is definitely another HUGE news I've learned about just today.
One that may result in a huge wave of FUD in the upcoming days.
According to decrypt.co: "Chinese authorities have seized over $4 billion in crypto assets. The funds were part of a major Ponzi scheme that exploited over two million people. ".
What is important is not only the fact that a huge chunk of crypto has been seized by the police (worth 4 billion usd) but was devastating to learn that 2 million people out there lost all their invested funds. That is devastating and the consequences may be very painful to the market.
How can it not affect markets in a negative way?
MY PERSONAL EXPECTATIONS
I'm neither a trader nor an expert. So allow me to repeat: this is not financial advice.
However, I do watch several youtube channels managed by people I value. People with knowledge and experience who are sharing their warnings, predictions and expectations. And most seem to agree that we will probably witness BITCOIN falling down to 14-15k USD levels.
Resistance becomes support
There is one more thing that most of those YouTubers also seem to agree on: assuming that BITCOIN would drop below 14-15k level, then we shall expect huge support of around 11-12k USD. Simply because that was previously a so-called "ceiling" and we've experienced solid resistance through the entire month of August.
Those are also my targets. Let me know what are your personal expectations.
SHARE YOUR VIEW and RESTEEM PLEASE
 | Please share your view on the discussed topic. I read all comments and will place solid upvotes on the most valuable ones. |
|---|
I would naturally appreciate every single resteem. Help me reach out to more people with this content, as I believe that this is a very important topic and I would like more people to join our discussion.
Yours, Piotr
@project.hope founder
Visit our partner www.steemscan.com/convert if you're looking for easy and fast way of converting STEEM to other major cryptocurrencies.
Hi @crypto.piotr
I like to reflect on this topic not only from the scientific point of view but also the escatological and epistimological aspect.
This will give me more space for my analyze and will let me understand that what is happening is an important part of the truth that is unfolding in front of our very eyes and we are witnesses of a big change with in the process of time and creation and history.
Just before yesterday i watched an interview with a founder of hive and the topic was the recent bitcoin phenomen of rise and fall.
Interesting that one topic was that the Institutions who control the paper money fear to be overrunned by the crypto and that they will do everything possible to get control of it before it is to late for them, means to much individuals is growing in "power" or independence.
We created the virtual reality according to the picture of this world what we are living in. Everything in the net is like in the real world.
And who is lucky to have wittnessed the appearance of the material manifestation of the internet (futureshock) and the possibility of physical access into the net will say yes, if i say that like in the real world, when the modern west was established and started to form all chances and all possibillities where open to everyone it was just depending of somebodys knowlegde about the thing how much power someone will get in small time.
The developers where working on ways of interfaces and more structure in order to cause traffic and with the traffic comes the business.
I am lucky i am born 1971.
One of the jounger examples is the goldrush.
I say that what happened during the Gold Rush and brought to anybody riches suddenly of course with greater suffering but things depend naturally on evolution, to day one have to suffer spiritually to get the same from the virtual world in the hope to transfer the gained into the present world and fullfill with it one selfs dream.
Forcelabour start to vanish more and more so control on the masses is getting out of hand
I do not think this kind of currency (crypto) is going to vanish but it is that someone start to put his hand in play, the same someone who brought similar changes which led to enslavement and poverty in everywhere.
After the infrastructure of the crypto seems to be well established and thanks to all developers starts to be accessable to anybody in the world, we see in this moment history repeating itself again and we might be wittnesses of an event that was prophecised 1400 years ago by the prophet Mohammed sas and 2000 years ago by Jesus as, he, Jesus was the one who drove the moneylenders out of the temple.
Just to understand those who put their hand in play, nothing has changed !
It will not be a change of crypto in my view but there will be a kind of new crypto or someone take control of an existing one in order to force all the others under him.
Thats now the task for crypto experts and traiders with insight to figure out the intentions and the goals in accordance with the worldwide political situation, and we focus in this case just on global politics, because the topic is "who will rule the world", you will might see and find out how this surely coming take over will take place, it is a long time existing plan.
And what nobody want to believe is the fact that soon there will be no paper money. [hygenical dictatorship orders it in order to reduce infection risks ?!]
As to say i respect a secular view on things, but after good 50 years of life experience i say, that who not see a spiritual world now, he will never see it.
May God the creator protect all of us of what we not know and what we not see, because he sees everything, and he gave permission for some time.
This is my personal view on things and it is part of my reality.
You can listen and think about it or correct me if i am wrong.
Best greetings @berlin61
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Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me @berlin61
I appreciate it a lot.
Do you write about topics related to technology and blockchain? Check out our community and consider subscribing and joining us: https://steemit.com/trending/hive-175254
Yours, Piotr
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It's me again @berlin61
With HIVE founder? wow.
Could you share link to this interview?
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Hi @crypto.piotr, historically it has been found that after an increase in the ascending slope of the BTC (rise) comes a resounding fall, and this can be analyzed in great depth by financial market statisticians, making their corresponding predictions, certainly the months of December and January register big movements in the stock market and crypto assets do not escape from it.
In the case of the influence of this behavior of abrupt rises and falls on large investors, it is to be believed that they will be very afraid of risking investing in a market that on many scales its behavior cannot be predicted with certainty and results in a retraction of the investments placed, logically.
I particularly think that we are still in full development of a financial market aimed at crypto assets that has not yet consolidated enough to gain the absolute confidence of large investors, the behaviors and trends, the variables that positively influence and negatively in the upward or downward movements of the BTC price, you have to spend a lot of time identifying which are these sinternal and external variables to properly predict the feasibility or positive return that an investment (broadly speaking) can leave you in this market .
I had my successes and mistakes at the time when I witnessed for the first time a succulent rise in BTC and in a short time a resounding fall that left a market depressed for a long time there between 2016 and 2017.
These topics are very extensive and deserve to be included as an academic subject in the university, finances are not square and here is a new vertex to explore.
See you soon
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Thanks for dropping by and sharing your thoughts @tocho2
I absolutely appreciate it.
ps. I've seen your first post within PH. I already bookmarked it and will read tomorrow with fresh brain.
Cheers, Piotr
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Thanks @crypto.piotr, see you
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What happened a few days ago (price drop) was a simple culmination of a trend where a large number of traders opened long positions. Anyone who has watched this knows that for a long time the so-called funding rates (a mechanism enabling perpetual futures contracts) have been in the plight of shorters. Open long positions thus paid significantly for short positions.
And basically, as always in such a situation, came the long squeeze (understand it as price drop). The drop in price began to liquidate longs (those with the largest leverage at first), which are then sold at the market price during liquidation, which again creates pressure on sales, which eliminates other longs with lower leverage.
So here we simply have a situation where some of the traders turned into a huge greed (see Fear & Greed index and it previous numbers!) and logically this correction subsequently fell on them.
Fundamentally nothing changes at all. The interest in BTC is huge from all sides (banks, institutions, PayPal, ...) and the network has been showing perfect numbers practically all year round. Prediction and technical analysis are priceless, we are going to the unexplored territory over 20,000 USD. According to fundamental data, there is no reason to panic or fear. The development of ecosystems, advancing adoption and spreading awareness will lead to gradual growth.
Buying BTC now? Only as part of a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy. Alternatively, at levels around 13k, where the 20-week moving average is, which served as a reflection of the bull run in 2017.
Selling BTC now? I wouldn't recommend it either. The chances that you will panic with repurchase at prices above 20k are higher than that the price will go down to your purchase levels.
20 week MA as a support in the last bull market should serve as a support now as well
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Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me @ritxi
I appreciate it a lot.
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You're welcome :-)
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Hola @crypto.piotr, aquí dejo mi opinión, espero se entienda la traducción. Hasta luego.
On the web we can get many experts who claim to predict the price accurately, but more than 90% are wrong since they only rely on statistics of the moment and try to guess, although this is already known, what I mean is that there is a great difficulty in predicting what can happen since something simple or something unforeseen can affect either positively or negatively the price, For example, the movement of whales, perhaps people who store large quantities with experience in the market know how to handle the ups and downs, but those who are starting do not know how to handle this type of situation, logically there is always a peak and a down, but the detail is to know what is the maximum rise.
Now speaking of the low volume is normal that some people are forbidden to buy for fear of losing, but there are always those who believe they will make a profit (believe that there will be a higher price) and not just buy.
Personally, when I began to buy cryptocurrency, I sold at a profit in the upside and bought again in the downside, so my amount of coins increased.
In my country there are many traders who earn by the day, the same day they buy below the value and sell above it, keeping the dollar and they do it regardless of the price of the cryptocurrency. This fear of losing does not exist in them, I believe that they have learned not to limit themselves due to the situation, because in my country, day by day we see how the dollar has more value than the national currency that one day can have a value per dollar of 100,000 and the next day 1,000,000. There is nothing to lose, this has worked for me, I have obtained profits by being risky, something that perhaps in another part of the world they would not understand.
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Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me @tanhunter254
I appreciate it a lot.
Do you write about topics related to technology and blockchain? Check out our community and consider subscribing and joining us: https://steemit.com/trending/hive-175254
Yours, Piotr
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BIG THX you for sharing your thoughts @madridbg
Solid upvote on the way :)
Hope to see you posting more often withing PH. Cheers
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What can I say? all these were mere expectations as people were already expecting a correction but you didn't come earlier. In fact most major exchanges were running contacts for people to predict when BTC will totally fit 20k. But is actually do things happen.
The little resources I had was when it was 14 k and I saw it rise up to 19 k and for back to 16.5 so technically I'm not the losing.
The truth is that everybody is responsible for their money and crypto is majorly a decision each and every person should personally take.
As for the prices, I believe this is only the beginning 2021 would actually signal a whole lot of bull.
at the end of the day YouTube videos are YouTube videos and the market will actually be the market and nobody can actually 100% say what will happen.
Trust your gut and make your own decisions yourself and thanks for sharing it was enlightening to read.
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As always - I very much appreciate your comment @josediccus
Cheers buddy :)
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You're welcome, 2021 will be exciting, that I know
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Sure, there will be corrections. And sure, there will be investors who lose when the price drops. But, as the past few days should make evident, the prices of all reputable cryptocurrencies will continue to rise.
Right now, the price has surpassed $19,700. So the correction / drop to the $16,000 level was temporary and short-lived.
As you state, you were "lucky" when you transferred all your funds to USDT. But, that next morning, did you then turn around and transfer them all BACK to where they came from. If so, you could have made a nice little profit. If not, then by today (Tuesday 1 December), you are right back to where you started from.
There will continue to be many corrections and many fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptos. But the trend is clearly upwards, further and further upwards ... up, up, and away.
Therefore, those corrections and spikes and tanks and fluctuations don't bother me. I notice them and I even track them, but I do not try to play them. Nor do I try to trade them for short-term profits. I just watch them as they rise.
Granted, they do not rise continuously, and they do not rise in a straight line. Such movement is unnatural and impossible to sustain. So, I watch the dips and the corrections, always keeping in mind that the trend is upwards.
And, while some investors and traders might get burned and therefore might abandon cryptos, that's nothing to worry about. Major institutional investors, including PayPal, are making major investments into Bitcoin.
That bodes very well for both the short-term future and the long-term prospects of cryptos.
Onwards, to the moon!
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BIG THX you for sharing your thoughts @majes.tytyty
Solid upvote on the way :)
ps. hope to see you being more active within PH in the future. Missing you here buddy
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Hello, dearest Professor.
I do miss you.
When will you come back?
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Hello and greetings! I would like to give my thoughts as requested about your post, it was informative to read your perspective and I appreciate the time you took to share..
When it comes to Bitcoin I feel the community that has been adopted has no clue that the very adoption itself is the value, and the reasons most people adopt are drawn to it is by way of the price going up and down. There are no other uses cases from what I read or see other than the network marketing or MLM scene that has found a use case for it by using it instead of FIAT currency on ponzi structures, which has brought regulators since the community found ways to use Bitcoin illegally.
The principles of Bitcoin that is mostly overlooked as value is that it is ownerless, decentralized, and to earn you do not need to invest but contribute to the protocol with mining or being a node. That is somewhat oversaturated as of now, but the principles still apply. More can be built upon these principles rather than using old logic on new innovations.
To one that looks at the price of bitcoin rising and falling.. where can you find the proof of it's value?
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Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me @wisetoken
I appreciate it a lot.
Do you write about topics related to technology and blockchain? Check out our community and consider subscribing and joining us: https://steemit.com/trending/hive-175254
Yours, Piotr
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There is two main factors... A lot of cryptocurrency projects have folded recently and that means there was and will be a lot of pressure on BTC, LTC and ETH as those three currencies are used as a ramp when cashing out crypto held by coin developers.
I have heard from people that Bitcoin is more likely to climb up than drop in near future, but eventually there will be another correction to about 17.5k USD.
Out of over 2000 cryptocurrencies, less than 50 are active and based on CryptoNote technology... Rest are either based on Bitcoin core, smart contract platforms or tokens on smart contract platforms...
Ethereum is losing userbase fast even though the switch to Proof-of-Stake is getting closer and closer. Main alternatives currently seem to be Tron and Binance Smart Chain, although there is quite a lot of reasons why Binance Smart Chain is not better choice than Ethereum. There just isn't enough public nodes for BSC and development team discourages setting up public nodes and recommends everyone to run their own nodes instead...
Setting up own nodes cost considerably more money than renting capacity on public nodes. For Ethereum, Infura has been main provider for blockchain access to new projects.
The second factor that affects price of Bitcoin is institutional investors... There has been a lot of interest in institutional investors as they have bought more BTC than has been mined and the trend might continue for a while before BTC value will reach the critical point where the institutional investors start to cash out profits.
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BIG THX you for sharing your thoughts @mtl1979
Solid upvote on the way :)
Oh. I wasn't aware. Why is that happening?
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Compared to other smart contract platforms, the fees are a lot higher on Ethereum blockchain.
As a developer, I don't see any useful new standards since ERC20, most of the more recent ones are too restrictive and focus on NFTs only, even though wrapped tokens are the future due to decentralized exchanges gaining more popularity as centralized exchanges seem to have stopped listing cryptocurrencies and have higher fees for tokens.
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Thanks for the invitation to comment @crypto.piotr, I have only been following BTC for about a year, I studied it before investing in it and in my opinion it is very healthy that every now and then retrace the price.
If it continues pumping it would be very dangerous and could end up after 2017 where the price plummeted in 2018.
I bought in March 2020 and I was very lucky because practically the price was very low, at this moment I would tell those who want to enter to wait if it stabilizes at around $ 20,000 because there is still a risk of collapses.
Bitcoin I see it very matured compared to a few years ago, in my opinion it has grown a lot with the entry of institutional investors and now no one can consider it a scam anymore, but the question I would like to ask you is: When will retail or small businesses enter by force savers where will the price go ?????
In Italy I am also receiving a lot of interest from friends who up to a few years ago did not even know what a cryptocurrency was.
Our task remains to spread our knowledge ...
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Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me @actionmirk
I appreciate it a lot. I presume you're Italian?
Do you write about topics related to technology and blockchain? Check out our community and consider subscribing and joining us: https://steemit.com/trending/hive-175254
Yours, Piotr
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thanks I'll take a look, the higher the goal I set myself is to be able to spread the crypto world to as many people as possible ..
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We seem to have similar goals @actionmirk
Definitely, I would like to recommend checking out our community.
Cheers, Piotr
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Hi @crypto.piotr
thanks for sharing your thought about the current bitcoin price movement.
its obvious that after the spike there would be some correction for sure and it happened. Undoubtedly, there has been great growth that has taken bitcoin to the 19k mark and drops down below 17k.
In my 3 years of crypto experience, I have see that when there is a correction then the price goes even higher, and such corrections are helpful for bitcoin price rise.
I am not sure whether its going to cross 20k but looking at the current market sentiment and volume I can expect more corrections but don't think that it will hit the 12-13k mark now.
this is my thought and we all know that anything can happen here so 100% prediction is never correct. Thanks.
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BIG THX you for sharing your thoughts @alokkumar121
Solid upvote on the way :)
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I think it is very important to exist a juridical personality to watch over the security and the transparency of crypto world, especially with the DEFI proyects, because there is a lot of scams looking for newbies. For example in my country Cuba, we are new in the cripto world and we have a lot of Ponzi Schemes that hasn´t exploted yet, i mean, the people are selling houses, cars to buy cripto and then gives the money to a third person for making profits if the third person make a profit. And sadenly the people do that.
So i am worried for the future use of cripto, because the value is flowing up and down every minute, and now i can say that we live with an economy of resources practice, and we can´t think every moment what is the price of the currency i have to by a single softdrink, it is a simple time cuestion. Good post. Keep steeming.
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Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me @manito92
I also appreciate your resteem
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When there is a pump on BTC, there will always be a price drop afterwards and this applies to most cryptocurrencies.
It is the small investors who lose the most because they pull themselves together when the price rises. When the price falls, they panic and sell their investment at a loss. When cryptocurrencies cannot have a stable value and more suffer with greater losses, this market will have a bad reputation.
BTC is a well-known cryptocurrency and it means that scammers use it to deceive people and it unfortunately takes place on a large scale.
As for the price of BTC, I will not be surprised if we get a new pump during December / January.
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As always - I very much appreciate your comment @xpilar
Cheers buddy :)
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@xpilar, Thanks for your comment
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it's actually overexcitement and lack of knowledge! They see these sudden pumps, suddenly they also hear everyone talking about btc reaching 50k 100k 200k in months and they believe it so they invest a lot! (i heard stories about people using their houses as collateral to gather money to invest)
Then the correction is on the way, the price is going down fast and they panic as you said too, trying to cash out and "save" everything they can!
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”WAS RECENT CORRECTION TO BE EXPECTED?”
Absolutely, something really exciting like crypto is going to have a lot of volatility. I think $12/13K is nice support, but since we’re in a bull market, $14/15K is probable. And it could be range-bound for a month or two, so people can catch their breath.
Side note, as long as central banks keep printing money and keep rates low, Bitcoin will continue to have a healthy tailwind. Even though Bitcoin’s merits alone give it a sustainable trajectory upward; in the world of capital assets, everything is relative; if your asset (BTC) is limited in number, and it is benchmarked to another asset that continues to increase in number (fiat), the price of your asset (BTC) will go up (all things being equal).
”100 mln LIQUIDATED on DeFi Protocol Compound”
”OTHER TERRIFIC NEWS - 1% BITCOIN seized by Chinese police”
Great post @crypto.piotr.
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I also think that $ 12 / 13K is a good support, maybe even $ 9,000, but the crypto market is set to grow more and more in the coming years.
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$9K, if we can all be so lucky 😁
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Meanwhile, for now we are already happy :)
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hi @stefano.massari
Thanks for your comment. I've noticed your profile description saying:
Do you often write about those topics? Perhaps you shall check out our community and consider joining our efforts:
https://steemit.com/trending/hive-175254
Yours, Piotr
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Thanks for the tip, I'll do as you say
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hi @stefano.massari
Thanks for your comment. I've noticed your profile description saying:
Do you often write about those topics? Perhaps you shall check out our community and consider joining our efforts:
https://steemit.com/trending/hive-175254
Yours, Piotr
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Thanks.. I joined
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Thanks for dropping by. Appreciate your comment @fijimermaid
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Thank You for the great post :)
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Interesting post with a number of issues.
The $20k has been a major long-term resistance level and the price will not just float through it. Indeed, even if were to surge through to 25k or 30k, it is likely to retrace back down to establish that 20k as a valid support level.
I have often said that BTC behaves more like a commodity than either a stock or currency. Hence, like every other commodity, it is swung around my news (real or not) and manipulated by very large holders. Understand the game and you may profit from it - believe FUD and FOMO and you're lost!
I don't trust most Defi. It reminds me of the huge financial black hole that is the derivatives market. Just imagine if every existing derivatives contract was called in - imagine the great reset needed to restart the game at zero. Of course, it won't be at zero, that's what digital currencies will be for. ;-)
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Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me @maxuv
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I sincerely believe that the crypto-currency market is very much manipulated by large investors, such is the case of BTC. I do not have investments in BTC but if I did, I would not despair of a fall in its price.
It is a very personal opinion, but in case I had an investment in BTC and the prices dropped I would not sell to obtain losses, simply that long term investment will recover, there is still a long time to go and we will continue to see unfavorable events that will make many people lose interest in continuing to invest in cryptomonies, but those of us who, like me, have faith that the world of cryptomonies is the future, bet on having a solid investment.
Even though I don't have investments in bitcoin, I do have them in steem, so I hope that in the future steem will be one of the most reliable cryptomonkets in the market.
I greet my dear friend @crypto.piotr and thank you for sharing your expectations and experiences in the cryptographic world
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Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me @carlos84
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Hi @crypto.piotr
Somehow intuitively and from experience you managed to do what you say, and you will secure your cryptos by leaving them in support of USDT, great winning move.
With regard to the BTC projections, it is good to know from the hand of experts according to what you say that you see some youtuber and that they do good behavioral analysis, in my case I cannot express any opinion and this is because of me Little liquid that does not allow me to make investments, but that does not mean that I am not interested in knowing how the market is behaving.
The news to which you refer also share your opinion that type of behavior what it does is to keep investors away from capital people are always looking for where to invest for that reason when handling the information that this type of business can become a fraud, they simply lose interest when investing.
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Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me @lanzjoseg
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Hello @crypto.piotr
Interesting topic you have brought up for discussion. For some it might be daunting but for others it doesn't come as a surprise. In the end, we know that the price game in cryptocurrencies is often very risky.
About 10 days ago I was reviewing the price history of BTC and also of some altcoin, and I think that BTC has not yet exceeded its maximum price, however, if I think it will exceed it this year, of course, I may be wrong, and then a tremendous correction could come from which we must guard against.
Get the benefit and retire.
Coincidentally, some 14 days after BTC reached its maximum price, some altcoin, including steem, reached their highest price in history. History repeats itself, considering the cyclical nature of the markets, we could obtain good profits, but everything is yet to be defined, nothing is written, at least not for the future.
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Thanks for dropping by. Appreciate your comment @josevas217
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Looking at the long term trajectory of the weekly chart it looks to me like the price corrected to a point that puts it back in line. Not that the price won't over correct like it did in early 2018 but there are a lot of eyes on 20k.
I'm of the thinking that the price could test 20k again, that being the 3rd time making it at a triple top. From what I've read, the number of actual bitcoin in the market is increasingly becoming scarcer. Much of the market consists of derivatives, not saying that central banks cannot print unlimited fiat to short the bitcoin market similar to how gold and silver have been suppressed but it seems at some point the emperor again will reveal that he has no clothes.
Personally, I'm not sure how much volatility that the de-fi market has even affects the bitcoin market. I consider it a different form of speculation. I've been in the crypto space since 2013 and I know a fair amount of people and none of them would even know what de-fi was. I think it's primarily at this point for early adapters and tech savvy individuals.
In using indicators, I've found the term "volume before price" to be a good indicator on future price. Looking at the daily chart I see large volume on the way down to 16.4 k. Looking at the 1 hr chart the trajectory for 16.4k to what is currently 17.4k seems bullish. I don't see a lot of resistance but I don't have a good way to see anything but short term.
I'm not sure how the Chinese news will be perceived. To me it's just another message to scammers that it isn't as easy as you think to get away with scamming people via crypto.
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Amazing feedback. Thank you @bitshares101
I also appreciate the fact that you've resteemed this publication.
ps. Is there any way I could contact you? Perhaps I could introduce you to our community curation trail and encourage to support content published by our authors with some small upvote.
Let me know if you're using discord, telegram or any other communication tool
Yours, Piotr
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I'm all up for supporting Project Hope authors. I've been on discord a couple of times. I'll see about getting over there.
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Dear @bitshares101
Thank you for prompt reply.
Consider joining our PH community discord server: https://discord.gg/uWMJTaW
Also perhaps you could consider joining our curation trail on Steemit and also on HIVE with 30-50% voting power.
You may find our curation trail QUITE UNIQUE. Simply because we're placing strong upvote from project.hope AFTER curation trail is being triggered. So your upvote will be followed by strong one, which should allow you to enjoy solid curation rewards.
Yours, Piotr
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hi @bitshares101
Could you please check out my recent comment to you: https://steemit.com/hive-175254/@crypto.piotr/qkkqcu
I hope we could "connect"
Cheers, Piotr
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Wow!!!
@crypto.piotr, I like to read your post.
Thank you for sharing your observations and point of view. When bitcoin's upline is interrupted, an alert occurs. But its return to 17USD, forces to wait for the next movements. But the other data that you provide seems to me of great relevance, because they project a significant flight from the cryptocurrency market, and if there are fewer investors, the equivalences with respect to the USD will be affected. Although bitcoin has always been seen as the strongest among these currencies.
I have no information about USDT (Tether), could you give information about it? One of my sons likes Ethereum, which is much less equivalent to Bitcoin and USD. What do you think about it?
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Hi @crypto.piotr - a good topic my friend.
I was expecting a correction once we went above $19k and sold part of my portfolio in anticipation. This seems to be quite a normal situation after a parabolic rise and there is a natural nervousness once the price goes towards a major milestones.
This happened when we approached $10k. There were several attempts and pullbacks before we broke through.
It has also happened in previous years during big bull runs with massive corrections.
My own prediction, and no one should take my opinion seriously, is that we will move sideways again for a couple of weeks before again starting to climb back towards 20k. Then another pullback. I am not expecting to break 20k until January at the earliest.
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Thanks for dropping by and sharing your thoughts @awah
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I have been far to pre-occupied to follow all the happenings of the cryptosphere. I'm now reading all this news at the cost of sleep time.
What you posted makes a lot of sense. I am not invested in BTC, so what happens there only affects me in how it translates to the alt-coins. BTC is far too expensive for me to get involved with it at this point. I think there is better opportunity for gains with the coins of lesser value. In all honesty, I can't see how BTC is even sustainable in the long run. When mining rewards don't cover the cost of running the miners, why would anyone bother?
With so many smart contracts running on ETH, I expect it will do well once it overcomes the transaction fee issue.
I'm sure there are other chains that will come along with great ideas and one of them will at some point become the king of cryptos.
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Thanks @happyme for sharing your thoughts. Upvote on the way. Catch.
BTC is considered best store of value out there. Even better than gold. Scarce, most of it already had been mined, cannot be duplicated, faked. Can easily be moved and with solid liquidity.
That itself is very unique utility, which is constantly bringing more demand.
And miners do probably take it into consideration. They mine, knowing that price of BTC is destined to raise. Because demand will overpower diminishing supply of new coins.
ETH cannot be compared to Bitcoin. It's little bit like comparing stocks of Facebook to Gold.
Hope Im making sense?
Cheers, Piotr
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Yes, you absolutely make sense. But consider that once the miners have been paid for their work and no more BTC is being mined, then the method for paying those who keep the servers running dies. They take their earnings and watch that grow with scarcity, however, if there are no new BTC made, there is no incentive to continue to run the servers as no new money is generated to be paid with, so the servers shut down and ... oops! BTC is dead.
Of course, anyone holding BTC will want to cash out their BTC before the servers go off-line, so if any of the miners didn't already cash out, they will keep their server running until such time as they can get their money out, but after that, why would they care to lose money by keeping the server up and running?
I think I understand the counter-argument. I just don't agree with it because I'm looking way into the future.
Gold is an inert mineral. It exists on its own with no dependencies. Bitcoin cannot exist on its own because it doesn't actually exist at all. Bitcoin is simply a representation of value held on a computing device. In one way it is actually foolish to be calling BTC a digital gold. Gold has industrial and aesthetic value by itself. In a million years from now, an ounce of gold will still be an ounce of something usable. If we have a cataclysmic catastrophe and the world's power is knocked out, BTC is rendered useless. Who would want to buy it? And when the first server comes back on line, who will validate any changes? If it was my server, I'd make sure I added a bunch of zero's behind my allotment so that I would be rich when BTC goes back into circulation. (Actually, I wouldn't, but I'm pretty sure those who currently run servers are not doing it out of the goodness of their hearts, so they likely would). How could anyone trust the validity of the blockchain data after such an incident?
Just as ETH is moving from Proof-of-work (POW) to Proof-of-stake (POS), BTC may have to alter its code one day in order to stay viable, and that may happen, but then it wouldn't be the same BTC it was before. So, regardless of what happens, I still can't see a long and indefinite life for BTC as we know it today.
All things considered, it seems that inflation is a necessary evil.
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Smal update (29/11/2020):
Since yesterday price of BTC increased by another 1000$. At the same time volumes didn't increase. It is very unlikely that this price movement will continue and at this stage I would think 10 times before buying any Bitcoin.
If we look at some other major cryptos out there, we will notice similar pattern: price growing without volumes supporting recent growth.
That is recipe for disaster ....
Next week surely will be very interesting.
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Hello @crypto.piotr r💕😊
You've actually made an excellent publication and good points as regards to the current situation in the crypto space. I am actually more concerned about your statement quoted below ;
I think this is really becoming more rampant in the crypto space and this tends to affect some people's trust and opinions in cryptocurrency. There's actually no doubt that seizing such amount of BTC will definitely affect the crypto space if such activities keep occurring.
Thanks for sharing this great post with love from @hardaeborla and I hope you have a great day ahead 💕❤️💓
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BIG THX you for sharing your thoughts @hardaeborla
Solid upvote on the way :)
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Thank you 😊
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Hello @crypto.piotr
In last one month, Bitcoin has shown tremendous growth in its price and it has even touched ATH that was created almost 3 years back.
Currently it's trading above 19300 USD this time I can see that volume is pretty good and selling is not happening with high volume. Although its difficult to predict its new move whether it will go up or down but looking at the current price, market sentiment, and even the volume gives more reason for it to grow further.
I am not an expert in crypto and competed for about 1.5 years so in this time period, for the first I have seen this much growth in BTC. Entry of institutional money is big plus that can derrive the price to its high and it can make another all-time high this time most probably.
Thanks for sharing this nice post.
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Yes , Bitcoin reached around 19.5 k and faced a strong drop .. currently trading around 17.7 k. The two reasons you point out seems to be highly attached to this sudden drop...
But what I noticed is the drop initiated within a short time. It dropped really fast. I think it's due to traders were overleveraged.
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Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me @besticofinder
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That news related to China is indeed huge. We wonder where those 194k bitcoin will end up. What is the chance that it will be dumped on the market or "locked" out of market circulation.
We would like to add that coinbase made users people concerned with their new additional KYc requirements.
Bad news usually travel together.
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Hi!
Correction is necessary.
My opinion is that there is now a global recession in all markets. Many people are losing business and jobs. These people are looking for a means of salvation. This means that they will attempt to invest in highly speculative assets.
Cryptocurrency is one such asset. Therefore, in order for new players to enter it, a correction is needed. Possible price reduction to 11-14. This will allow to accept more bets in the game :)
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Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me @nklm
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it's always the same pattern! we got a huge pump followed by a huge dump! Don't invest when the price is that high, invest when it is low!
Also, to be honest i don't care that much about btc even though it leads the market! i try to find other opportunities!
The certain thing is that bitcoin is here to stay and will stay forever! Many people will consider it as a scam and here is where steemit and other crypto take place and can show the world that crypto aren't scam and tha you can earn directly!
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Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me @filotasriza3
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Saludos @crypto.piotr, una buena subida este aumento del BTC para muchos la estaban esperando y la bajada no se la esperaban.
Da temor esta fluctuación de las monedas, yo no sé nada sobre estos mercados sigo aprendiendo y observando.
Casi tuve un acierto sobre esta subida en un post.
Estos temas son muy extendidos y con el tiempo habrá materias en las escuelas sobre ello. Los cambios vienen por allí. Bendiciones.
Greetings @ crypto.piotr, a good rise this increase in BTC for many they were waiting for and the fall was not expected.
This fluctuation of the currencies is scary, I do not know anything about these markets I continue to learn and observe.
I almost got a hit on this upload in a post.
These topics are very widespread and in time there will be subjects in schools about it. The changes come through there. Blessings
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Thanks for dropping by. Appreciate your comment @sacra97
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These days I am on Netflix watching an anime about alchemy, a principle where to create something you must destroy something of equal value and make an equivalent exchange, for me it was logical that you can not always win with cryptocurrency at some point people should lose, of course those who invested at the beginning continue to win, but it is the basic principle of equality for someone to win someone must lose I know that it is not always the case, Apple's Tesla shares always rise and never fall but bitcoin is a modena free and for me if it was foreseeable that it was going to fall and it will always be like that it will go up and down
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Thanks for dropping by. Appreciate your comment @ramsesuchiha
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Greetings friend @crypto.piotr
From my point of view, the crypto currency market is very variant and manipulated by investors.
The news that you are sharing with us and giving us your valuable opinion is very important and it keeps investors away from capital. People always look for where it is more viable to invest than the profit margin they will perceive with news so that people are aware that they will have a loss.
i don't have experience nor investments in bitcoins, i have them in steem, which i hope that for a not too distant future the steem will be a cryptomoney of the ones that offer more confidence to the market and the safest way to invest.
Thanks leader for taking us into account at all times.
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Thanks for dropping by and sharing your thoughts @sandracarrascal
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I am strongly agree with this. Many expert crypto trader saying that 11-12k USD is the strong support. Well if we check the history, we can see that bitcoin was always taken correction before next pump. it will not go straight. So i think we have to follow previous pattern as well as we have to use our trading experience like you shared volume pattern. So according to that pattern we can expect next heavy drop. But still it is crypto and anything can happen here. So we can just guess according to our experience and research.
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As always - I very much appreciate your comment @luckyali
Cheers buddy :)
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I was happen to see the BTC price by previous days before Thursday in the broker and saw the proximity to the $19K, but suddenly this was faced to a big crash through that very lower number, let's say around $15k. But this coin has arrived to dominate this scenario so I knew that will recover once again and let's see if it'll be hitting beyond the $20 to the ending of the year. Regards from Latin America 🌎 #onepercent #venezuela #affable
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Thanks for dropping by. Appreciate your comment @alegnita
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Skyrocketing prices
Decline in trading volume
Indicates that there are whales entering the market with buy it
Can the price be maintained ?
Just see if there is an old whale coming out to vomit
If both parties hold a wait-and-see attitude
May rise a few waves
When everyone finds out that's it
There will be old whales who can't help but make big shipments
That time will price fall instantly
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Thanks for dropping by. Appreciate your comment @cloudblade
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Your post is manually rewarded by the
World of Xpilar Community Curation Trail
join the World of Xpilar Curation Trail, info can be found here
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Thanks for sharing your thoughts on crypto related topic, you made a very good point on investors likely to loose interest on crypto investment if such uncalled event keep repeating self in the crypto space I fear more user will loose trust in the digital world.
@crypto.piotr
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I do not really know much about this liquidation but going through your post make me to ask some questions like what really happen and what is the cause of the 100m dollar liquidation. I am very certain that investors that loose their money will definitely investigate or demand for investigation the cause of the lost and measure will be taken to avoid future occurrence but the measures taken will definitely after the crypto space either positive or negative depending on the decision taken.
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This is actually not a good one, but a lot happens in the cryptocurrency world and do not get out on news. For the price of BTC, it will surely rise and as at currently, the market only corrected itself.
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No matter the market's irrationality, accumulation is your best ally if you know to handle your emotions.
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This is just a small correction , more bleeding is yet to come don't buy now wait for little time and see the market trend then decide.
As per my understanding bitcoin will touch new high and then the correction will start as it's the money game
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We're surely on the same page @@@adityajainxds
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Hello @crypto.piotr particularly I have heard that a bullish movement is coming and that the bitcoin can reach up to 30 thousand dollars, I have investments there and I trust that it will be so and if the opposite happens I will not see it as lost, the bitcoin will always have its ups and downs that is not a surprise for anyone, we should only wait for it to reach a point where it will generate good profits for us.
In my case as long as it stays above 11 I consider myself a winner. Greetings!
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Hello dear friend @crypto.piotr, I don't have investments in bitcoin for now, but I imagine the emotional instability that has created these sudden changes in investors, creates some mistrust, although I'm sure that in the medium or long term prices can exceed today's standards.
Luckily you managed to secure your bitcoin investment in a stable currency just in time, until after you have an excellent weekend !
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Currently I don't know if Bitcoin will drop or it will hit its new high. For now, I am watching.
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I think we will see greens for a little while more and alts may move a bit. But as usual, decembers are always horrible. The drop was expected, it was actually a bull trap by the tether guys. But things might move up a bit in the next few days before another crash follows.
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I am ready for another dip. holding my chest lol.
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I'm not good at predicting market prices anyway I hope the steem price will continue to rise, thank you
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Thanks for dropping by @johnion :)
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Yes i completely agree your analysis. I am so happy you safe your investment but my bad luck i struck. Hope those recover fastly.
Thanks for amazing content from you.
#affable #india
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I guess you shouldn't sleep if you have investments in BTC. I invested $10 and when I saw it fall I was scared (and it was only $10, although here it's a small fortune). I can't imagine those who have thousands of dollars invested.
They sure don't get any sleep.
It is sad to see that the crypto sphere lends itself to many schemes of cheating and deception.
I'm glad you saved your money :D
I guess the best thing to do is to sell, for the time being, right? At least this way I can sleep with one less worry
Yours, JAdams
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You got scared so fast @jadams2k18? Wow. Don't you have nerves made out of steel buddy? :)
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XD
"Mas vale pajaro en mano que 100 volando"
Which can be translated into English as "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush". Even though we do not refer to only 2 but rather to 100.
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I was pretty happy when BTC went up to 19k but I kind of knew that the dump was coming. It happens and it doesn't go straight up. Stay with BTC or not, everybody has to make their own decision and be smart about your asset like you did. Personally, I didn't move anything but I haven't lost anything so far :)
I knew about china issues but I didn't know about compound... that is pretty scary. DeFi is definitely not easy... for me and for my assets.
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This post has been rewarded by #nutbox. Nutbox is the DApp Incubator of Steem , and you can mine PNUT token by staking to us via https://nutbox.io .Contact us at https://discord.gg/zPkMuGY
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Hi @crypto.piotr
Thank you very much for this excellent content, it is always important to analyse the different points of view on the world of crypts, made by experts in the field, especially for those of us who handle it very prudently.
Particularly if one thing I dare to say is how uncertain and surprising the changes that may occur in the cryptology market are.
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Would've agree with you when BTC was chasing 20k. Also would have thought that BTC would not have revisit 18 let alone 19k so quickly after hitting 16. This tells me to look out for new behavior in BTC.
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There were lots of things which took place in the last week and we must say that this is really gona make an very impact on people those who were the pray of those 100mln $ wipe of but still there is something which we can't do apart from it to most of your point i do agree with and it's just matter of time to see how the market is going to react.
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I smell the same that BTC will drop down to $14K before getting new ATH. Just now, BTC retracted to $19,300 from around $19800.
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I can grab something positive in what you say. Price is increasing but volume is not increasing. One must think wise and considerable before buying bitcoin right now.
Actually to.me, I see bitcoin dropping to $15k a realistic because to me, I have also been wondering it will be quite soon to see bitcoin hitting the top figure.
About the loss of that huge millions in Defi, I really sense something fishy in that because that amount is really huge and massive. I am imagining what these investors might be thinking about right now.
Well to me, I don't think bitcoin will fall as low back as $11k-$12k again as that will be another bear run but $15k will still be quite acceptable.
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$tangent
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I think that I agree with most of the things you've stated here. The market will surely experience some corrections, although I do not see Bitcoin falling far below $14k in the nearest future because we are already in a bull market. Thanks for your detailed analysis.
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There may be another market drop, but in the future the whole crypto market will rise to a trillion dollars. The market will rise in the next 3/4 years. This is my vision.
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I expected the correction but as you pointed out, when resistance becomes support, you know that good things are on the horizon. We already hit a new All time high yesterday and while it was only just testing, it is an indicator for the surge that is to come soon.
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Your point of view on the subject is very detailed, @crypto.piotr.
I bet on the stable price of Bitcoin between 18k and 20k.
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@tipu curate 3
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Thank you for your comment @steem-supporter
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