The Presidency of the Conference of Parties (COP) 28 of the UNFCCC has called for an agreement on global target of tripling renewable energy capacity from current levels by 2030. This figure appeared in the G20 declaration as well.
In 2021, in total electricity generation, the contribution of renewable energy sources (RES) was only 28%. More than half of the RE generation was from hydropower, while solar energy contributed 13%, and wind 23%. Tripling RE capacity by 2030 implies a target of about 9000 GW, which is more than the total installed energy capacity from all sources in 2021. This is adding about 6000 GW of RE capacity between 2022 and 2030.
Electricity demand across countries is highly differentiated, and the rates of growth vary for countries at different stages of development. Electricity demand is growing far more rapidly in developing countries. Electricity consumption in China and India between 2010 and 2019 grew annually at 6.6% and 6.3% annually, respectively. On the other hand, there was a 0.3% decline in the European Union’s energy consumption, and a 0.12% growth in that of the United States. Currently only 21% of the electricity in the US, and 37% in the European Union comes from RES. With a full phase out of fossil fuel-based capacity, the US and the EU would account for more than a third of the new capacity, which is closer to their fair share of the burden. This would allow developing countries a less onerous transition in the energy sector.
According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), most of the non-RE capacity to be added by 2023 is in developing countries. By 2030, 80% of the power generation capacity in Sub Saharan Africa is to be from RE sources.
There are several challenges in the way of tripling the RE capacity of the world by 2030. Inability to reach annual target of $100 Billion of climate finance is probably the biggest of these challenges. While India announced at COP26 that it would increase it’s ambition to 500GW from non-fossil fuels by 2030, the US hasn’t declared any such renewable energy targets. Nor has the US shown any intent to declare one, apart from a general announcement to decarbonize the energy sector by 2035. The EU too has only a relative target.
Developing countries at COP28 should consider the target for tripling RE capacity only if the Global North commits to absolute targets domestically, that are commensurate with their responsibility.
