The Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report provides one of the most expansive and scientific reviews on the impact of climate change. It discusses different shared socio economic pathways for the future with varying levels of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions.
The likelihood of the average warming exceeding 2°C around mid century is very high. The average global temperature is already 1.09°C higher than pre-industrial levels. CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is currently 410 ppm, compared to 285 ppm in 1850.
Sea level rise basically means an increase in the levels of the world’s oceans due to effects of global warming. One of the major causes of this is burning fossil fuels, and the fact that the majority of the heat produced is absorbed by oceans. As water gets warmer, it expands. This, along with the melting of glaciers and ice sheets, leads to sea level rise.
Nearly 700 million people around the world live along the coast and there continue to be plans to expand coastal cities. Understanding the risks involved from climate change and sea level rise in the 21st and 22nd centuries is crucial. This rise in water levels will continue if and when global warming has been arrested, because oceans respond to warming slowly. Between 1901 and 2018, Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) rose by 0.2M.
According to the United Nations Environment Programme Emissions Gap Report, we are heading for a temperature rise above 3°C this century. This is twice as much as the Paris Agreement reccomendation. Consequences of this include increased intensity of storm surges, flooding and damage to coastal areas. People will be displaced and will seek safer places to live, which in turn will cause certain areas to become o or populated. The climate refugee crisis is something for which the world is woefully ill prepared. Even life farther inland will be threatened, because rising seas will contaminate the soil and groundwater with salt.
Adaptation to sea level rise must include a range of measures, including but not limited to coastal regulations, which should be stricter as it has become with each update of the Coastal Regulations Zone. Governments should not insure or bail out speculators. Coastal communities should be alerted in advance and should be protected during extreme weather events. Natural and artificial barriers should be considered in a limited manner to protect certain vulnerable areas. Retreat should be a part of adaptation strategy for very low lying areas.
