Forecasting the Weather Will ALWAYS Be a Dodgy Proposition!

I remember talking to a climatologist friend of mine many years, and he explained how many of the world's earliest supercomputers were actually created for climate and weather modeling.

With as much effort as has been put into predicting the weather, you'd think "they" would always get it right... but we all know that's not what reality shows us!

I find myself wiring these words on a night when a quiet snow falls outside and the temperature is right around freezing... on a night that was forecast to be clear and well below freezing.

Of course, we live in a part of our state that has a lot of "microclimates," above and beyond just the general trends for our region of the country. Just this morning, we needed to take our pickup truck to the local mechanic, and it was drilling slightly at our house, but there was a good 2" (5cm) of snow on the ground, just six miles (9km) away.

I suppose it would be easy to say that it's not really a "big deal," but at the same time we do somewhat depend on knowing (more or less) what the weather will be like, from the perspective of being "Urban Homesteaders."

We grow a good bit of our own food, and in spring it becomes really important to know whether or not that last snow has fallen, and whether or not we are likely to get another freeze.

And yet? In spite of all their sophisticated "toys" the weather forecasters only get it somewhat right, some of the time. Today's forecast was a complete miss, with opposing warm and cold fronts ultimately becoming stationary 60 miles (100km) further north than projected.

Of course, we can have all sorts of expectations as to what an "accurate" weather forecast looks like. As I mentioned, around here we have lots of microclimates, and there would be no way to accurately predict when it's going to remain clear at our house, while it is raining in town, a 15-minute drive from here.

But it doesn't seem like "they" do any better on a larger scale. This year, we were supposed to have a dry and cold winter, but so far November 1st through now has been wetter than normal, and slightly warmer than normal. The "warmer" part is OK by me, as it means we have to run the heater less!

I can't deny that the snow looks very pretty, but I really don't like driving in it, and I'm ready for spring!

So, we have ourselves a snowy winter evening, and I think it's time for me to just pack it in for the day and find a nice warm corner to sit and read a book.

Yes, I'm old. I still read books. The kind with paper pages...

Thanks for stopping by, and enjoy the remainder of your week!

What's the weather like where YOU are? Does it seem unpredictable? Or is it pretty constant? Do leave a comment if you feel so inclined — share your experiences — be part of the conversation!

(All text and images by the author, unless otherwise credited. This is ORIGINAL CONTENT, created expressly for this platform — NOT A CROSSPOST!!!)
Created at 2023.02.22 21:39 PST
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