Some of you may remember my pre-weekend analysis from last season where I'd pick a premium and budget option in each position for the forthcoming 5 Gameweeks. I don't really have the time to do that this season so instead, I'll occasionally look at a position / budget / team / player or whatever takes my fancy and share some statistics and thoughts on the subject.
As many of you know, I use my own custom metrics combined with some more common ones (Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Assists (xA)). This season, my metrics now include a "home strength" attribute to account for the return of fans. It'll take a little while before this metric becomes reliable, as well as the xG data settling down so I'm well aware that only being 2 games into the season, the data I'm working with isn't ideal. But I'm going to plough on anyway.
Now perhaps a little naively, I didn't realise quite how many options there were at this price so I'll only look at players that have played 60 minutes or more - that's still a lot of players (48)!
But first, my custom metrics to look at the best defences to be looking at over the next 5 Gameweeks.
It's worth noting that some teams don't have any playing £4.5m defenders but we'll consider this data again once we review some underlying player stats.
A lot to take in and is only really important if you're looking for more than just clean sheet potential. I'll focus on the top 7 players (down to Ciaran Clark) since on a per 90 basis, they're currently significantly better than all of the alternatives.
There are a few interesting cases in here - Konstantinos Tsimikas (£4.2m) will almost certainly lose his place to Andrew Robertson (£7.0m) this weekend so it would certainly be a gamble getting him in at this point. Rob Holding (£4.4m) is probably only in the team because Ben White is out (but only short term) and with Federico Fernández (£4.5m) posting similar numbers to Ciaran Clark (£4.5m) on a per-90 basis, it's best to stick with Fernandez's more certainty of game time. So we're only really looking at options, all at £4.5m:
- Ben Gibson (Norwich)
- Christian Kabasele (Watford)
- Federico Fernández (Newcastle)
- Pablo Mari (Arsenal)
I'm not even sure of Mari's game time but as the left-footed option, he could be ok.
So back to my custom metrics of fixture strength and we have...
Norwich and Watford similarly positioned and with Gibson and Kabalese sitting at the top of our £4.5m defenders, the pair could be decent options going into the next 5 Gameweeks and for those who like a bit of rotation, they even rotate quite nicely.
If you're more interested in the teams with the best defensive prospects, then Kilman (Wolves), Duffy (Brighton) and Dier (Spurs) are probably your best options.
I'm often surprised by the outcome when I start writing these articles and regular readers won't be surprised if any of these players get injured. To be tipping a Norwich defender seems like utter madness but who am I to argue with the data?
If you enjoyed this article, please let me know and please share your thoughts with me - especially if there's a particular position, player, team, etc. that you're considering and would like a different pair of eyes on 🧐
Good luck for Gameweek 3 everybody 👍
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Wow! You really put in a lot of effort into this. I am still holding Tsimikas as I am hoping for another price rise before selling him. Thinking of swapping him for Livramento but he is way down in the middle of your list. Now have to reconsider. Thanks for the analysis.
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Thank you. I wish I'd done this before making my transfers 🤣
I think £4.2m is as far as Tsimikas will go - Once the 300,000+ people who transferred him in this week see that Robertson plays instead, there will be a lot of transfers out.
I think Livramento's a decent pick for £4.0m if you're not planning to play him much and spending the money elsewhere. Walker-Peters might be a concern after his goal and assist in the EFL Cup last night but it looks like all of the £4.0m defenders aren't guaranteed starters every week. Duffy at £4.1m is probably a good short-term bet if you have the extra £0.1m but it's probably only worth it if you need a starter - Once Burn and Veltman are back, things could look very different.
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Thanks
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