In a dramatic turn of events that has reshaped the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani has emerged as the new de facto leader of Syria following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime. This development, while unexpected, is steeped in the complex history of the Syrian conflict and the international fight against terrorism, given Jolani's designation as one of the United States' most wanted terrorists.

Background: Who is Abu Muhammad al-Jolani?

Born Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa in 1982 in Saudi Arabia to Syrian parents displaced from the Golan Heights, Jolani returned to Syria with his family in 1989. His militant career began in Iraq post-2003 U.S. invasion, where he joined Al Qaeda. His journey took a significant turn when he was dispatched to Syria in 2011 to establish Jabhat al-Nusra, initially a branch of Al Qaeda, which later became Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) after severing ties with its parent organization in 2016.

Jolani's transformation from a hardline jihadist to a figure attempting to project a more moderate image has been noted by various analysts. "He sought to polish the image of his de-facto 'salvation government' that has been running Idlib to win over international governments and reassure Syria's religious and ethnic minorities." (quoted by CBS News, "Who is Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the leader of the insurgency that toppled Syria's Assad?")

The U.S. Stance on Jolani

The United States has maintained a firm stance against Jolani, designating him a "Specially Designated Global Terrorist" since 2013. This classification comes with a $10 million bounty for information leading to his capture, highlighting the U.S. view of him as a significant threat to global security. "The FBI is seeking information on the leadership of the al Nusrah Front (ANF), a foreign terrorist organization, to include information on Muhammad al-Jawlani." (quoted from FBI, "Up to $10 Million Reward Offered for Information on the Leader of the al Nusrah Front")

The Rise to Power

Jolani's rise to power in Syria can be traced back to the strategic decisions he made over the years, including his break from Al Qaeda to focus on the Syrian conflict specifically. His leadership of HTS has solidified his control over Idlib, which became the last significant rebel-held area in Syria. His group's military prowess was demonstrated in late 2024 when they led a lightning offensive that seized Damascus, effectively ending Assad's rule.

His approach has been to portray himself as a pragmatic leader, focusing on governance rather than global jihad. "He has moderated his rhetoric and has been working on building up a state-like structure in Idlib," explains a source close to HTS operations. This shift is seen by some as an attempt to gain legitimacy both domestically and internationally, despite his terrorist designation.

International Reactions

The international community's response to Jolani's rise has been mixed. Some see this as a chance for a new political order in Syria, potentially less aligned with Iran and Russia, while others view it with alarm due to his past affiliations. The U.S., while acknowledging the fall of Assad, has not shifted its policy regarding HTS or Jolani. "Despite attempts to distance his group from extremist organizations, the United States still designated his new group a terror organization," noted by CNN in a recent analysis.

Turkey, which has had a complex relationship with various Syrian factions, including HTS, has not yet officially commented on this new reality. However, given Turkey's strategic interests in northern Syria, Jolani's leadership might offer a new dynamic in regional politics.

Challenges and Prospects

The immediate challenges for Jolani include stabilizing a war-torn nation, managing a diverse set of internal factions, and navigating the international community's distrust. His past with Al Qaeda and his current leadership of a group still labeled as terrorist by several countries complicates international recognition and aid.

Moreover, there's the question of how Syria will be governed under his rule. Will he maintain the Islamist governance he's known for, or will he attempt to forge a more inclusive government reflecting Syria's diversity? His previous statements suggest a focus on a "council chosen by the people," but the practicality of this in a post-conflict setting remains to be seen.

Conclusion

Abu Muhammad al-Jolani's ascent to power in Syria marks a significant yet contentious new chapter in the country's history. His status as a U.S.-wanted terrorist does not preclude his influence over the future of Syria but complicates its path towards peace and international acceptance. The coming years will be crucial in determining whether Jolani can transition from a jihadist leader to a statesman capable of leading Syria out of the shadows of war into a semblance of stability.

Sources:

• CBS News - "Who is Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the leader of the insurgency that toppled Syria's Assad?" CBS News
• FBI - "Up to $10 Million Reward Offered for Information on the Leader of the al Nusrah Front" FBI
• CNN - "Abu Mohammad al-Jolani: How Syria’s rebel leader went from radical jihadist to a blazer-wearing ‘revolutionary’" CNN