CoinMetrics.io is few months old, but new to me. Discovered while looking for NTV calculations, this site is very impressive.
Here’s a few highlights from a post titled Mean-reversion and reflexivity: a Litecoin case study:
Quite simply, this is (early and incomplete) evidence that transaction load follows price. This is a relationship we have noticed in a number of other cryptos over periods in which their market values appreciated rapidly.
There are three broad conclusions we can draw from this story, in order of importance:
- Cryptocurrencies exhibit reflexivity
- Market to Transaction Value is powerfully mean-reverting, so pay attention to trends.
- The better tech may not always win.