India's sero survey highlights the unspoken severity of their pandemic.

in india •  3 years ago 

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For those curious about how India is faring with the coronavirus, a national serological survey was completed showing 67.6% of the country has coronavirus antibodies now. The previous national survey done in January was only at 21.5%.

If this national serosurvey is accurate, in the last six months that would imply ~636 million Indians contracted Covid. Just utterly astounding. This is why reported cases and deaths were believed to be massive undercounts.

These serosurveys can be imprecise as especially for a place like India a lot can depend on the sampling. But they are our best estimate of the true pandemic toll in a country like India that isn't testing enough to detect its infections.

People like Jay Bhattacharya and Monica Gandhi thought India was largely over the worst of the pandemic this Winter prior to the devastating Spring wave based on serological studies from primarily dense urban slums that indicated majorities had antibodies. These proved to be unrepresentative of seropositivity in the more rural areas of the country. And unfortunately we witnessed a severe Spring wave hit an unsuspecting country.

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