Last Thursday, Boris Johnson has informed the House of Commons on his new Brexit proposal to replace the Irish backstop, for the next EU-deal negotiations session. Instead of one border, BoJo suggested that there should be two borders!
Basically, the proposal was that EU can control the border with Republic of Ireland, while UK will control border of Norther Ireland, making the territory of both Ireland a special case. As “Daily Telegraph” reported:
“Effectively, that means that Northern Ireland will remain in large parts of the EU single market until at least 2025 - but will leave the EU customs union alongside the rest of the UK”.
Speaking at Boris Johnson described his plan as a “compromise for both sides” which would “protect the union”. At the same time, his proposal contains a concession to the allied DUP:
“But under the Boris Johnson offer, the Northern Ireland Assembly could choose to stay with this EU regulation, or move towards [regulatory alignment with] Great Britain in 2025.”
Looks nice on paper, DUP apears happy, but there are several points where we could put his plan under suspicion. First point brought up well known author, show host and former MP George Galloway:
Duration: 7:05
In his assessment, the plan could win majority in the House of Commons, but he suggested put it on voting before the EU negotiations, so the situation “what UK wants” was clear. Unfortunately, PM probably won’t do it. What’s the purpose of the plan that EU probably won’t accept, then? One word: procrastination.
While media dismiss Boris Johnson as a weak PM who wont last long, his actual position is far better, because of the:
- people support for Brexit to be finally done
- UK’s ‘elite’ fear of elections (derived from the point 1)
- time limit
- unbearable situation in EU which makes business with the UK uncertain, and inflict a damage in its corporations
And Boris Johnson is playing on all of those strong points. Together with Brexit Party of Nigel Farage, he could easily win a majority in the next parliament in case of the new elections. So he just need to circumvent in the next 24 days the “Benn act”, which requires a Brexit delay unless a divorce deal is agreed. He can do it by formally submitting a plan to EU (but not before the House of Commons), while doing everything to make EU reject both — plan and delay. To that end, he decided to release the rumors that he will designate Nigel Farage as the UK's EU commissioner, effectively making the process of decision making in the EU much more complicated. Steve Baker, former Brexit Minister, brought the thought out in the “Chopper’s Brexit Podcast” on Saturday:
“This approach is inspired by the film Armageddon. There is that moment when they are trying to save the world and so what they do is they land on the asteroid and they put a nuclear weapon into the heart of the asteroid. Nigel Farage is that nuclear weapon.”
Of course, it is hard to believe that members of European Parliament would give a green light to Farage, who have a reputation of two decades of causing trouble in Brussels. For example:
Nigel Farage Show in the European Parliament — Duration: 10:30
Even Farage himself didn’t consider that proposal serious, but listen to his reaction answering to the questions in his LBC Show, at the [0:41:00] mark:
Duration: 1:57:02
In the meantime, BBC is reporting that Angela Merkel has set a condition — the deal is possible only if Northern Ireland stays in the Customs Union with EU. Hardly acceptable for any British PM. The pound is tanking on the news. Now, what is the worst outcome for Boris Johnson? General elections? He already offered them, and he certainly does not have fear of elections.
The Big Theatre Show is closing to a climax. Brexit fun will last for some time, no doubt, but there is one more point the people in the UK must not forget while passionately cheering from the audience:
Don’t forget Julian Assange!
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