2004-2008: An expert broker can use leverage and my high-risk tolerance to generate outsized returns.
2009-2015: "Experts" are frauds, stock picking is impossible because markets are efficient. I can use my understanding of Austrian economic theory to predict macroeconomic outcomes to generate superior returns.
2015-2019: Markets are efficient on both the micro and macro levels. Knowing long-term trends has minimal value without getting timing right. A passive index strategy that leverages compound returns is best.
2019-2023: The myth of sustainable returns is a fraud powered by inflation, and bound to collapse with the dollar. By the time securities are sold to the public, all the profit has been milked by private equity. Legendary investors all won from insider deals. Superior returns are found in private equity investments and business ventures.
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