I really enjoyed this post and think you have some excellent insights. As you mention, China is contending against some serious debt issues, so much so that it was flagged as one of the top three nations that could trigger a global banking crisis.

However, less discussed here is the incredibly unstable social patterns within China. There are many, many young to middle aged men with no prospects of marriage and are increasingly maligned by the new economic structure that is emerging. This creates a significant force of disaffection that can threaten the regime.

In addition, China is not only delocalizing production, which I agree with you is an event of world historical importance, but it also has plans to automate is labour force extensively and has basically filled the Japanese automation company Funac's order book for the next decade.

Putting these things together with an unprecedented experiment in using peer policing via the social credit system, to me, could create serious social insecurity amongst the population that might have considerable social, economic and political consequences for the regime.

You are absolutely right that we are witnessing a new distribution of power and in many respects the next decades of the global order will be shaped by the "West's" failed gamble of pushing China towards democracy...it will be dark days for many African nations that will most likely be forced to be recast in the Chinese model.