Against the Lottery

When people reveal that they buy lottery tickets, I cringe. A bit harder if they are poor, but I do it whether they are rich or poor, educated or not, well-dressed or not.

They are giving up money that took effort to earn, in exchange for something that has negative expected value. Even if you bought every single ticket and thus was guaranteed to win, you would still lose money because the amount that you pay into the lottery company would be much more than what you would win. I'm sure the lottery company (and the government that they pay taxes to) is glad you bought tickets, and they'll play ads that make it seem like you're buying your way to a better life and a better world. You aren't.

You literally end up with more money by stuffing it under your mattress than buying lottery tickets, even with inflation. And it's not hard to think of better investments than fiat cash left under the mattress.

Worse, if you try to explain this to some people, they point to the rare outlying person who wins, and forget about everyone else who bought tickets and got nothing. I wouldn’t cringe if I could just explain this to them and they stopped buying tickets, like a fixable mistake. But they actually will rationalize it as a good idea. “You could win. Some people do”, they will pointless say. It is an enticing impulse and a pleasant fantasy, and it hijacks them.

The old saying that lotteries are a tax on the poor or stupid is not entirely true; you will sometimes meet smart, educated people who buy tickets too. But they are certainly a tax on someone out there, and I don't recommend being in that group.