Despite the lingering influence of the Soviet Union, Russia is still considered by most people as a world military power second only to the United States in terms of strength. In recent years, with the rise of China, the development of military strength between China and Russia has shown a trend of mutual growth and development, with each having its own strengths,
Vadim Kozyulin, a senior military analyst at the Moscow Defense Think Tank in Russia, once pointed out that "China has surpassed Russia in supersonic missiles, drones, and several naval vessels, and its equipment update speed can even rival that of the Soviet era. With Russia's existing financial resources, it is no longer able to compete
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, due to the lack of blood transfusions from members of the Mutual Economic Assistance Association, orders from China became an important source for Russia to maintain military spending.
Roughly estimated, from the early 1990s to 2007, 80% of China's advanced weapons came from Russia, including fighter jets, anti-aircraft missile systems, destroyers, and so on.
Nowadays, most of China's weapons and equipment have achieved self-sufficiency, and many popular models have also been exported overseas. In 2021, Siemon Wezeman from the Swiss SIPRI research institute said, "In 5-10 years, China may no longer consider purchasing any weapons from Russia. Russia may instead need to purchase high-tech components from China. Moreover, given China's pricing strategy for weapons, Russia will lose its arms markets in Africa, the Middle East, and South America
However, Michael Kofman from the Washington Military Research Center disagrees with this: "In the future, Russia's strategy in arms trade will shift from direct manufacturing and sales to providing technical cooperation, because many core components cannot be produced by China yet and Russia's help will be needed for a long time
No matter how the outside world speculates, the deepening of military cooperation between China and Russia is an undeniable fact. Between 2019 and 2020, China and Russia have held two large-scale military exercises. In October 2020, Putin stated that he had shared some key sensitive technologies with China to help them develop, which attracted widespread attention from the West.
In the increasingly complex competition among major powers, ordinary people are unable to access the true trump card of military power data from various countries. The author will analyze publicly available data to present a comparison of conventional military power between China and Russia.
War tests not only the quantity of weapons and armies, but also the critical importance of strategic resource reserves.
In World War II, the reason why Germany focused on the southern front during the implementation of the Barbarossa Plan was to seize oil fields in the Caucasus region. When this strategic goal was not achieved, the Nazis were already declared extinct. The disastrous defeats in the North African battlefield and the Battle of Kursk in the later period were also related to this.
Compared with the awareness and experience of strategic material reserves in developed Western countries, China still has a lot of room for improvement. Since 1949, the list of strategic material reserves in China has been increasing. In the "Important Strategic Material Reserve Law" promulgated in 1979, a total of 62 categories and 93 varieties were included, including grain, metal raw materials, petroleum, rare earth minerals, industrial parts, cotton, etc.
At present, there are ten central level reserve material warehouses in China, located in Harbin, Shenyang, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Changsha, Xi'an, Tianjin, Chengdu, Nanning, and Hefei.
- Grain
Thanks to Grandpa Yuan Longping and his scientific research team, China has fed more than 20% of the population with 6% of the world's arable land. To date, the grain self-sufficiency rate has exceeded 90%. Among them, the reserves of rice, corn, wheat and other staple grains are enough for the Chinese people to eat nothing for a year.
Of course, food security not only includes the production and consumption capacity of food, but also includes standards such as quality and safety, as well as the sustainable development of natural resources.
China's food security index is comparable to Russia, but there is still a certain gap compared to the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. Due to its large population base, China has inherent disadvantages in this regard. - Oil
The International Energy Agency has set a 90 day safety line for oil reserves.
Due to the shale gas revolution, the United States has shifted from an energy importing country to an exporting country, and Japan and Germany have oil reserves far exceeding 90 days.
Russia's oil reserves are also astonishing, with peak oil exports exceeding those of Saudi Arabia.
As the world's factory, China's dependence on foreign oil exceeded 70% in 2018, making it the world's largest importer of crude oil. In 2004, China began its strategic petroleum reserve construction plan, which was divided into three phases. Currently, the first two phases have been completed, with reserves reaching 85 million tons, basically meeting the 90 day safety line standard. With the completion of the third phase reserve base, oil safety has been basically guaranteed.
Grain energy and energy security are the basic guarantees of national security. Russia has inherent advantages, and China is striving to catch up.
two
Comparison of Ground Forces Strength between China and Russia
Number of active personnel:
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Russian military has gradually undergone reforms towards elitism. After all, its economic strength is not as strong as before, and it is impossible to continue maintaining a military of millions of people. Of course, once it enters a full-scale war, its mobilization ability remains strong.
Russian military personnel
Chinese military personnel
The active duty of the Russian Army is about 300000, the reserve is about 2 million, and there are about 46.5 million people (aged 16-49) suitable for service domestically; There are about 1 million active duty personnel and 10 million reserve personnel in China, with a suitable number of 620 million for service.
Tank comparison
In terms of quantity:
The total number of tanks in Russia is about 13000, all of which are third-generation tanks. Among them, there are about 2800 active tanks, and the rest are reserved. There are 370 T-90 active tanks (with a total reserve of 570, of which more than 77% are T-90/T-90A and the remaining are T-90M).
There are a total of 3450 T-80 tanks, with 450 currently in service (including 310 T-80BV/T-80U and 140 T-80BVM)
There are a total of 9050 T-72 tanks, of which 2050 are currently in service (1400 T-72B3 and 650 T-72B/T-72BA)
Russian T-90 main battle tank
The total number of tanks in China is about 5000, including 4000 third-generation tanks, including 1200 99/99A tanks, 2500 96/96A/96B tanks, and about 300 Type 15 tanks.
Among them, the 99/99A is compared to Russia's T80 and T90 tanks, and the Type 96 is compared to the T-72.
In terms of combat effectiveness:
Although the T-80 was a tank from the Soviet era, all of Russia's current T-80s have been upgraded, and their overall performance is similar to that of the T-90 and Type 99, with no generation difference; The latest model of 96A is slightly better than T-72, but it is not inferior in terms of generation and has similar combat effectiveness.
In terms of quantity:
Russia has over 12000 infantry fighting vehicles, with over 4000 currently in service.
Among them, there are about 620 BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles, 3000 BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles, and about 500 BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles.
There are about 8500 active infantry fighting vehicles in China, including about 2000 Type 08 wheeled infantry fighting vehicles and 2300 Type 04/04A tracked infantry fighting vehicles.
In terms of combat effectiveness:
In the ranking of the combat effectiveness of infantry fighting vehicles in the world, the BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle ranks slightly higher than the 04/04A, with almost no difference in combat effectiveness. However, the BMP-2/BMP-1 has a significant difference in combat effectiveness compared to the 04/04A, and the number of 620 vehicles cannot be compared with the Chinese 04/04A. Therefore, China has an advantage in infantry fighting vehicles.
Artillery comparison:
Russia is equipped with over 6500 self-propelled artillery pieces, 4400 towed artillery pieces, and 3800 multiple rocket launchers; China has 2000 self-propelled artillery pieces, 1200 towed artillery pieces, and 2200 multiple rocket launchers.
Other comparisons:
Russia has a total of 13000 armored personnel carriers, while China has approximately 4800; China has an advantage in the number of various types of armored vehicles such as lightning protection and anti ambush vehicles, armored assault vehicles, anti tank armored vehicles, and armored reconnaissance vehicles, with a total of about 20000 vehicles, while Russia only has about 3400 vehicles.
Summary: If the reserved army equipment is included, the Russian army is worthy of the name of the steel torrent. In terms of technology, there is no significant gap between China and Russia, and China has a clear advantage as a latecomer, with a higher proportion of advanced equipment.
III Comparison of Air Forces between China and Russia
Comparison of fighter jets:
There are about 1000 fighter jets equipped by the Russian Air Force, all of which are fourth generation and above fighter jets. If 127 SU-34 fighter bombers are excluded, the number of main fighter jets of the Russian Air Force is less than 1000, and only one SU-57 is a fifth generation fighter jet. Although there are rumors that the Gagarin Aircraft Manufacturing Plant has taken down four SU-57s, this news has not been officially confirmed and cannot be confirmed.
The Chinese Air Force has equipped over 1000 fourth generation aircraft, including more than 150 J-20 aircraft.
Comparison of Bombers/Combat Bombers:
The Russian Air Force has 125 bombers, including 58 strategic bombers.
There are about 200 bombers equipped by the Chinese Air Force, but there are no truly strategic bombers, and the H-20 is eagerly awaited
If SU-34 is included, the Russian Air Force has 621 fighter bombers and China has 260 H-7s.
Helicopter/Armed Helicopter Comparison:
The Russian Air Force has over 1500 helicopters in total; There are 538 armed helicopters (mostly heavy)
The number of Chinese Air Force helicopters is approximately 1700; About 460 armed helicopters (mostly light and medium)
In the field of large transport helicopters, both China and Russia have shortcomings, and the two countries are currently jointly developing them.
Comparison of other types of fighter jets:
Russia is equipped with over 400 transport aircraft, 4 combat trainer aircraft MiG-29KUB, 19 aerial refueling aircraft Il-78, 18 early warning aircraft, 8 electronic fighter jets, and 19 reconnaissance aircraft.
The Chinese Air Force has over 300 transport aircraft, 87 combat trainer aircraft (including 39 SU-27 and 48 J-10S), around 20 aerial refueling aircraft (including around 8 modified Y-20), more than 70 early warning aircraft, around 50 electronic warfare aircraft, and 14 reconnaissance aircraft.
Summary: In terms of fighter jets, the Chinese Air Force is superior to the Russian military in both quantity and quality, and China also has an advantage in the advanced level of electronic equipment. However, China is weaker in strategic bombers and armed helicopters, and there is still a lot of room for catching up.
4 Comparison of Naval Forces between China and Russia
Aircraft carrier comparison:
Russia has an aircraft carrier Kuznetsov that is currently undergoing maintenance and renovation, with a full displacement of 59000 tons. There are currently no active aircraft carrier forces available.
China has two active aircraft carriers with a full capacity of 65000 tons and is currently building an aircraft carrier that may exceed 80000 tons.
Comparison of amphibious assault ships:
Russia is zero, although it recently wanted to purchase the Northwest Wind class amphibious assault ship from France, it can only be said to be far away under the current sanctions situation.
Currently, China has two ships with a full capacity of 40000 tons, and one 075 is undergoing sea trials, with the 076 model already on the agenda.
Cruiser/Destroyer Comparison:
Although Russia has a total of 17 ships, there are currently only 4 cruisers and 6 destroyers in service, all of which are old models without shield ships.
There are currently 42 active destroyers in China, including 31 shield ships, of which 29 are new ships manufactured within the past decade. The Type 055 missile destroyer can basically be considered the ceiling level of destroyer combat effectiveness at present.
Comparison of escort ships:
Russia has equipped a total of 96 ships, including 18 with a displacement of over 2000 tons, of which only 2 Gorshkov class frigates are shield ships.
China has equipped a total of 92 ships, of which 42 have a displacement of over 2000 tons, most of which have been in service since 2010.
Comparison between nuclear submarines and conventional submarines:
The Russian Navy has a total of 36 nuclear submarines, including 11 strategic nuclear submarines (5 fully loaded 24000 ton Borealis class and 5 fully loaded 18000 ton 667BDRM class) and 22 conventional submarines.
The Chinese Navy has a total of 16 nuclear submarines, including 6 strategic nuclear submarines (5 full tonnage 094/094A and 1 092) and 57 conventional submarines.
Summary: The Russian Navy may have been the most deeply affected by the collapse of the Soviet Union. At the peak of aircraft carrier development, the Soviet Union was fooled by the United States' "useless aircraft carrier theory" and fell far behind the United States at that time. Now that Russia wants to catch up, it does not have enough financial resources, which is truly regrettable.
Five Apart from equipment and resources, what are the gaps in military strength between China and Russia? - The gap between the strategic deployment of military forces between China and Russia
Not long ago, during a large-scale protest in Kazakhstan over natural gas prices, the Russian military assembled 70 Il-76MD and 5 An-124 transport planes to deliver a fully mechanized unit to Kazakhstan overnight on the day of Kazakhstan's request for support. The force reached 3500 people, including more than 230 armored vehicles, which quickly reversed the situation and demonstrated Russia's strong strategic delivery capabilities. Currently, only the United States and Russia belong to the first tier players in this regard.
China and Russia are not only reflected in hardware such as large transport planes in this regard, but China's experience in strategic delivery is also very limited.
Although China has used the Y-20 to transport tens of thousands of winter quilts to western airports in one day, this is far from the actual combat environment. The Y-20 has also participated in joint military exercises between China and Russia, transporting Chinese personnel and vehicles to Russian airports. However, this is still incomparable to the Russian military's flash attack on Alamutu and the creation of airport defense circles at Syrian airports.
Lack of practical experience also means that the command system has not been sufficiently honed. The highest command body for strategic delivery in the Russian military is the Central Military Transport Bureau, and the director can directly report to the president. The highest command body for strategic delivery in the air force is the Russian General Staff, and the Air Force Command is only responsible for administrative leadership, ensuring the authority and smoothness of military orders and the unity of command.
However, the command system for China's strategic projection of power is not unified, and the transportation capacity is not centralized, resulting in problems of decentralized management and self-contained systems, which is in sharp contrast to Russia.
Therefore, in terms of strategic delivery capabilities, China should also strengthen practical exercises, achieve centralized command at the theater and military commission levels, and better leverage the power of strategic delivery on the battlefield. - The gap in the application of drones
In recent years, we can see that UAVs have special roles and advantages in the battlefield through the security war in Syria and Libya, the UAV war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the "drop by drop tank" war in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
China, on the other hand, has the biggest advantage in manufacturing - the low cost brought by industrial scale. Combined with China's current advantage in avionics, China's drones are very popular in the international market due to their low cost, high functional integration, and low maintenance costs.
And the profits and market experience brought by their best-selling products can better support the research and upgrading of domestic drones.
Russia is currently far behind China in the field of drones, and it is very difficult to catch up.
Summary: Currently, the military strength of China and Russia is closely tied. Russia's advantage lies in the large amount of assets left by the Soviet Union, while China's advantage lies in the leadership of the Communist Party and the commissioning of a large number of new equipment. In the long run, China's military strength surpassing Russia will become a reality in the next decade.