The EU is doubling down on its creeping authoritarianism by starting on the path to invoking Article 7 against Poland. This is happening against a backdrop of Trump's weakness in the face of the Swamp Striking Back, is creating the perfect storm for an extended rally in the euro that sets up the insolvent EU banking system for total and complete collapse.
Remember the Banco Popular sale for €1 to Santander? Again, I said then that it would weaken the EU banking system as investors are now looking at a 100% wipe out on the whim of the ECB. And this makes EU banks less attractive than non-EU banks.
But, the turmoil in Congress and the White House continues to hold investors’ attention. This is the reason for dollar weakness. And, Trump, the mercantilist that he is, isn’t balking at a weaker dollar. It’s what he wants.
Lurking in the background are the actual problems within the EU – the rising opposition to its creeping authoritarianism.
Poland is in the EU’s crosshairs now; defying not only the refugee quotas that have been unilaterally imposed on it, but also reforms to Poland’s judiciary which bear little resemblance to what the Polish people want.
And this is pushing the fight between it and the EU to the breaking point.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4092527-poland-article-7-coming-failure-eu
For Steemian Eyes Only
The euro is going to close July above $1.16. This is a huge technical upside signal.
The irony here is that it is Trump's weakness as a leader that has created this situation. We expected him to be a strong alpha male, and in the end he's nothing but a narcissistic appeaser, afraid of the numbers and being attacked in the media. His weakness is inviting chaos in the White House as the Democrats and the Deep State smell blood in the water.
They will try to impeach him in the next few months, while the Fed raises rates and unwinds its balance sheet into this weakness. It will misinterpret the signals coming from the equity and bond markets and continue withdrawing liquidity from markets that are already tight.
At the same time Merkel will press her democratic advantage to make up with Russia somewhat and put the screws to Eastern Europe. This will result in a eurodollar market that is completely offside (think a move to $1.25 or even $1.30 now) and create a sovereign debt crisis early in 2018.
I think you are very right and that means higher prices here in the states. People at some point will hit their breaking point and blame Trump when all the blame belongs at the FEDs feet. Keep steaming
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The big worry for us is that once the dollar begins to rise it will destroy our export markets... Trump will fume like the big child that he is and slap even more import tariffs on, and our domestic debt load along with that of the treasury will rise in price on a lower national income and lower tax reciepts.
At that point things go N-V-T-S Nuts!
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