In an unpredictable world, organizations lose their predictability. Companies might be in the wrong business, in the wrong technology, or even in the wrong labor relations. Customers are fickle and unpredictable, and every decision must be backed by an avalanche of information. The government changes regulations and tax requirements constantly. Political change and technological advancement are a constant threat, and business plans are rendered impossible. People's skills and talents are devalued, and fortunes rise and fall with the stock market.
People who value certainty tend to live a predictable life. They enjoy following a pattern and are reliable. However, too much commitment to certainty can be debilitating, and people tend to avoid attempting new challenges. Luckily, this kind of attitude is increasingly becoming more popular as the world becomes increasingly complex. In many cases, a predictable life can be a good thing. Despite the many benefits of predictability and stability, there are still risks involved in living without it.
Organizations that value predictability can be more effective. Organizations that emphasize predictability tend to be more effective, and people are more likely to follow their leaders. In this case, the managers should establish rules and play by them. This will ensure that employees aren't disrupted by abrupt changes. They should also make sure that people know what will happen if they break the rules. For example, managers who arbitrarily let people go won't consider whether their performance is good or bad, and will ultimately undermine the quality of the organization.
In a more dynamic environment, teams that receive constant instruction tend to wait to be told what to do. This slows innovation and erodes motivation, job satisfaction, and happiness. Moreover, continuous switching introduces anxiety and indecision. When possible, leadership should articulate the value of what they are trying to accomplish, and empower the next layer of the organization to pull in work. This way, teams can focus on high value items, instead of waiting for direction.
In an environment that is more unpredictable than it is stable, predictive control can help make complex interactions easier to manage. By incorporating a model of the body and environment, the control algorithm can anticipate perturbations that result from delays. While assessing stability and predictability is difficult, predicting its properties is critical to the safety of an economy. If the economy is unable to maintain its stability, a steady state will ultimately benefit the economy.
Organizations and individuals resist change. Change reduces predictability, and the absence of resistance would result in a random choice. This resistance is a source of functional conflict and can impede adaptation and progress. So, how can organizations avoid these challenges? Consider the bees in figure 10. They will build an elaborate hive if their environment is inviting. The shape of the hive is predictable, but the process of building it is chaotic.