According to the incredibly poorly; and often FUD-motivated media, the biggest crypto questions of 2020 relate to the Federal Reserve, China, India, Iran, the SEC, Libra, and “quantum supremacy.” To the contrary, it is plain and simply, the MATH of the potentially historic halving barely four months away.
Yes, Bitcoin continues to encounter numerous hurdles, on its road to mainstream adoption. And yes, there will be many bumps along the road. However, Bitcoin is the preeminent store-of-value asset of the unfolding Digital Age – that responds haphazardly to the aforementioned noise, but directly to the massive supply disruption halvings cause…particularly, when hash rate is at an all-time high; as the use case, and utility, of Bitcoin becomes exponentially clearer each day.
That said, is the halving “priced in” – by savvy investors, stock to flow ratios, technical analysis, or otherwise? In my view, the answer is a resounding NO – as frankly, the amount of people in the world who understand what Bitcoin IS; let alone, how it WORKS; is infinitesimal…
Travis Kling, founder Los Angeles-based hedge fund Ikigai Asset Management:
“Many market participants have been asking the question -- is the Bitcoin halving priced in? That’s the wrong way to frame it. A small single digit percentage of the world currently owns Bitcoin. For those that currently own Bitcoin, a large portion of them understand that Bitcoin’s newly issued supply is cut in half every four years. This is likely a significant reason why they own it -- because of Bitcoin’s provable scarcity. For the many billions of people around the world that do not own Bitcoin, few understand this provable scarcity characteristic. So for those billions, it cannot be priced in. To the extent those billions of people discover Bitcoin in the future and decide to buy some, there will be less new available supply to satisfy that increased demand to purchase Bitcoin.”
Not to mention, Bitcoin draws increasingly large investors as its market cap and liquidity increases – so halving or not, many are on the sidelines waiting for these milestones to be achieved. So, with Bitcoin’s most important fundamental event coming; at a time when few realize its importance, and many aren’t even eligible to invest; I’d say the odds of Bitcoin’s May 2020 halving being “priced in” are slim to none.