New Noble Predictive Insights poll of Arizona.

in new •  27 days ago 

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Conducted from October 28–30.

A 5 point gap between the Presidential race and Senate race seems a lot more realistic than the current polling averages gap of 8 points. We just don't see that type of ticket splitting usually anymore for the Senate. Especially for non-incumbents.

Anyways, don't count out Harris in Arizona. Polling is extremely close there. And honestly I think the fundamentals for her in Arizona are strong (demographics, ground game).

Prop 139 is the abortion rights constitutional amendment.

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