Panoramas of the market. November 11, 2016

I focus markets:

 Winning of Donald Trump will continue to be the focus of the market. Focusing on pre-election promises of the new President of the glare source of optimism, because in these promises see preconditions for increasing economic growth in the US economy. The realism of the published promises to long ignored but already appear the first signals that the euphoria in conjunction with the victory Trump exaggerated. In the near future will probably focus of attention of market participants continue to be moved to the prospects for the realization of the published promises, which can lead to a correction after the recent developments.

 Calendar last session very unstable last week will be saturated macroeconomic events. Today the market will attract the attention of the Deputy speech Fed Laurel Fisher at 14:00 GMT, and the Governor of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz in at 15:50 GMT. Among the economic data worth noting preliminary estimate of consumer sentiment index from Reuters / Michigan, which will be released at 15:00 GMT.

II What is talk in the market:

 Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Leker said that the arguments in favor of raising rates "quite strong." "I still think that being so, despite the events of this week - said Leker. - No doubt, the Federal Reserve will consider the possibility of increasing rates in December, he added. He did not directly comment on the outcome of the US presidential election. However, Lacker is said that fiscal stimulus help to raise rates more quickly. the newly elected president of Trump had previously pledged to increase budget spending for infrastructure projects. "the increase in fiscal measures to stimulate the economy, for the preservation of the preceding conditions in other areas, will lead to raising interest rates - it is an indisputable fact. It all depends on what kind of initiatives in this direction will be implemented, "- he said.

 The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Bullard said that Trump's victory in the presidential elections in the United States should not force the central bank to refrain from raising interest rates next month. "I do not see the instability that forced us to change our basic view on the economy, - said Bullard. - We stay on the same road where we were before the election. We believe that it is necessary to increase the rates, and I think December will be a reasonable period of time for implementation plans . " Bullard said that one should not expect that the political changes in Washington have an impact on monetary policy.

 Rebuilding the economy of the eurozone continues, but the low core inflation, a key indicator of price growth remains a cause for concern, said ECB Vice President Vitor Constance. He acknowledged the recent improvement in the economic situation, but pointed out that core inflation, which excludes volatile components - food and energy - remains low and does not expedite strain. "I am sure that the recovery in the euro area to continue - said Constance. - The reason for concern is the fact that core inflation does not accelerate, and that is still very low." In October, core inflation in the euro zone slowed to 0.7 percent compared with 0.8 percent in the previous month.

 The yield of government bonds of the eurozone has reached several months Spitz on Thursday, take off following, backing, a record for a few years, the growth of government bond yields USA. The increase in yield is related to investor expectations that protectionist trade policy, and that the budgetary costs of Donald Trump, who won the presidential election, will fuel inflation. The yield on 10-year German government bonds reached the highest level since the end of April, while the yield on 30-year government bonds rose to the tip of the end of May. The yield on 10-year Spanish government bonds rose to a level which the video in June, shortly after the British decision to withdraw from the EU. The yield of government bonds of Italy reached the pinnacle of one year so that investors are thinking about the next big political event in the euro zone - Italy's referendum on constitutional reform on December 4th.

 World oil market can move from surplus to deficit in 2017, to be implemented if the OPEC countries reached an agreement in Algeria, according to which the total volume of production countries in the cartel should be reduced to 32.5 to 33 million barrels a day, predict MEA in its November report. At the same time, the agency acknowledges that if any of the OPEC countries continued to increase production during 2017, excess supply in the market will continue and the chances of a significant increase in the price of oil will be small. According to OPEC, in October 2016, oil production has increased compared to October last year to 0.8 million barrels per day.Despite the fall in production in countries that are not included in OPEC, the effect of this will compensate for the continuous growth of production in the cartel - in October, according to MEA, reached a record 33.83 million barrels a day, 1.3 million barrels more than in October last years. Within OPEC production is rising for the fifth month in a row. MEA said the recovery of production in Nigeria, Libya, as well as increased production to record the municipal level (4.59 million bpd) in Iraq.

 The US Treasury has announced that the US budget deficit in October fell due to reduced costs of government programs, due to calendar factors. According to reports, the cost of government for the first month of the new financial year have exceeded revenues of 44.19 billion US dollars.In October last year, the budget deficit amounted to 136.56 billion dollars. Reducing the deficit in October hides broader trend in which the deficit is growing. Congressional Budget Office expects that by 2017 Finansijaki the deficit will rise to 594 billion dollars. Government revenues in October were up by 5%, while expenses fell by 24% annually. A significant drop in costs is due to the transfer of payment of health insurance program "Medicare".

 The research results, published by Bloomberg, showed that the consumer confidence index improved again last week, marking the third increase in a row. According to data for the week ending 6 November, consumer comfort index rose to 45.1 points from 44.6 points the previous week (30 'October). Over the past three weeks, the index added 3.8 points. The average value for 2016 now stands at 43.3 points, while the long-term average, which is calculated from the end of 1985, amounted to 41.7 points. As for the components of the index, the increase was recorded two of the three indicators. Meter personal finances rose from 57.5 points to 58.5 points. The average value for the current year amounted to 56.0 points. As for the sensors of consumer sentiment, which indicates whether now is a good time to buy goods and services, he fell to 39.1 points from 39.5 points. The average value since the beginning of 2016 amounted to 39.4 points.Meanwhile, an index that assesses views on the economy as a whole rose from 36.9 points to 37.7 points, which is not far from the peak in 2016 (38.0 points). The average value of this index since the beginning of the year amounted to 34.4 points.

 People's Bank of China on Friday weakened the exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar by 0.34%, which was again the minimum exchange rate of the Chinese currency against the dollar since 2010. People's Bank of China has set the average exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar at around 6.8115, which is 230 points higher than the fixing Thursday, when the rate was 6.7885. The yuan since mid-October, the lowest level since September 2010 and has already been renewed a minimum of six years ago. The Chinese currency is quite long held the sign of a stable of about 8.3 yuan to the dollar, while in the year 2005 there began to strengthen. Since the autumn of 2008 yuan is about a year held at the level of 6.8, and in September 2009, again began to grow. The peak was in January 2014, when for 1 dollar gave about 6 yuan. In August 2015, the People's Bank of China's yuan weakened sharply against the dollar (only 3%), which shocked the world market. Later, the Chinese central bank focused efforts to stabilize the yuan.After that happened three waves weakening of the yuan.

 Foreign Exchange market

III The situation in the markets

 Pair EUR / USD has risen a little, finding a foothold above the level of $ 1.0900. A pair of support given widespread weakening of the dollar. However, the ambiguous attitude of the market and the absence of critical conscience hinders the growth of money. If markets keep optimistic, almost nothing can prevent the Fed to raise interest rates in December, which will support the dollar, making it attractive for investors with a view to profitability. Yesterday, the Richmond Fed President Lacker Jeffree said that the arguments in favor of raising rates "quite strong." "I still think that being so, despite the events of this week - said Leker. - No doubt, the Federal Reserve will consider the possibility of increasing rates in December, he added. Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed Governor Bularda said that victory Trump the presidential elections in the United States should not force the Central bank to refrain from raising interest rates next month. "I do not see the instability that forced us to change our basic view on the economy, - said Bullard. - We stay on the same road where we were before the election. We believe that it is necessary to increase the rates, and I think December will be a reasonable period of time for implementation of plans. "" According to the futures market, is now likely tightening of monetary policy the Fed is 71.5% in December, as the previous day. In addition, investors also began to harass political instability in the euro area before the series of events, in particular the referendum scheduled for Dec 4 Italy, which could destabilize markets. Overall, market participants expect the store in the near future smoothly. Strong resistance - $ 1.1035 (MA (200) to H1). Significant support - $ 1.0846 (minimum 25 October).

 Pair GBP / USD traded near the opening levels after a significant increase in the previous day.Experts point out that due to lack of conscience on the course of today's trading will affect the dynamics of dollars. However, further growth of pair is still limited, given the unclear market sentiment and a drop in raw material prices. Britain will now publish only information on the volume of production in the construction sector, and the US - an index of consumer sentiment. It is also planned speech representative Fed Fisher. It is predicted that, according to the August results of the construction sector recorded output growth of 0.2%, after a month earlier recorded a decrease of 1.5%. As for the index of consumer sentiment in the US, analysts expect that in November a preliminary indicator increased to 87.5 points compared to 87.2 points in October.An important resistance - $ 1.2619 (maximum 7 October). Significant support - $ 1.2352 (minimum 9 November).

 Pair AUD / USD fell sharply at the beginning of the session, but soon regained all the lost positions. Recovery is para with respect to the price of copper rally. Copper has already increased by 4% to a new 16-month maximum, because Trump victory gives hope to increase investment in infrastructure SAD. For further support, pair has given the dollar's decline in the whole spectrum of the market. However, in the course of trade is affected by the news that the People's Bank of China on Friday oslabilla exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar by 0.34%, which was again the minimum exchange rate of the Chinese currency against the dollar since 2010. People's Bank of China has set the average exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar at around 6.8115, which is 230 points higher than the fixation on Thursday, when the exchange rate was 6.7885. Furthermore, the focus of the players will be the data of China and Australia, with the labor market, which will be published next week. Also, in the coming weeks, the dynamics of the market will depend on developments in Washington as investors actively trying to clarify economic policy administration Trump. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar, which is a barometer of risk, will continue to reflect changes in the market mood. Strong resistance - AUD0.7739 (maximum of 10 November). Significant support - AUD0.7505 (minimum 13 October).

 Pair USD / JPY shows a slight decline. Experts point out that in the last days of steam rise contributed to the closing position of some investors for buying the Japanese currency ahead of elections in the United States. Investors are recorded profit due to a sharp fall in the pair immediately after the publication of winning Trump, but now they have calmed down a bit, and thinking about economic policy Trump. Market participants are still lost in the assumptions on which measures will be taken Tramp raise inflation expectations. It is expected that the Fed will raise interest rates, but if you see positive economic dynamics, one that promotes the growth of company profits and the strengthening of the dollar. If the US economy grows at the expense of the supply shock, such as from the introduction of tariffs and breaking trade agreements, the central bank will raise rates. Despite the fact that markets do not like the current uncertainty, global investors on the stock market will eventually see great opportunities for shopping. An important resistance - Y107.48 (maximum 21 July). Strong support - Y101.18 (minimum 9 November).

Stock market

 The main US stock indexes ended yesterday's trading without the unique dynamics. The Nasdaq composite index fell due to declining shares of "giants" Apple and Amazon, as investors poured money into other sectors that can benefit from Tramp victory in the elections. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high, which contributed to the active buying of shares of major banks and industrial companies. Investors in the United States calculated that during the presidency of Donald Trump will be introduced additional fiscal stimulus, reducing corporate taxes and an increase in interest rates. Financial and pharmaceutical companies also lead the market because of expectations that the new administration may weaken regulations.Some support the market gave the US data from the labor market. As stated in the Ministry of Labor, the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, indicating the resilience of the labor market. Primary applications for state unemployment benefits fell by 11,000 and reached 254,000 with seasonal adjustments for the week ending 5 November. Economists are betting that initial applications for unemployment benefits amount to 260,000.

 Asian stock indexes traded in the green zone Zbig expectations that the Fed will raise rates in December. Experts believe that the political course Trump can accelerate US inflation and increase the likelihood of Fed rate increase in December, which, according to CME Group, estimated at 71.5%. This pattern reinforces the fears of investors able to capital outflows from developed markets in the US economy. Kote the largest in Asia, the Tokyo Stock Exchange rose slightly yesterday due to an increase in American corner. However, growth is limited due to the strengthening of the yen against the dollar, which is unfavorable for the Japanese manufacturers, export-oriented. In Australia, the price increased action of many mining companies, which has helped increase the price of copper to new 16-month highs.

Expected positive start to trading on the major stock exchanges in Europe.

The market of financial instruments

At present, the yield of 10-year US bonds at the level of 1.15% (0 bp).

The yield of 10-year German Bunds are currently at the same level - 0.29% (+1 bp).

The yield of 10-year bonds the UK is retained in 1.35% (+1 bp).

Raw materials market

WTI crude oil futures demonstrate the negative dynamics. Currently, the December futures traded at $ 44.45 per barrel (-0.47%). Oil prices are falling due to the negative sentiment in relation to the problem of excess oil on the market. According to a November report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the countries of OPEC have increased in October the total oil production of 230 thousand barrels per day, compared to the previous month to a record high of 33.83 million barrels per day. The increase was caused by a decrease in production in Nigeria and Libya, as well as record-high production in Iraq. On an annual basis in October, the country's OPEC increased production by almost 1.3 million barrels per day. Gradually, investors are preparing for the publication of data Baker Hughes, which will be published later today.Recall, according to the working week, as of 4 November, the number of rigs in the US increased by 12 units to 569 units. Number of oil rigs has increased by 9 units to 450 units.Number of wells for gas production increased by 3 units, totaling 117 units. These figures have strengthened expectations of a possible increase in US production volume. This will, in turn complicate the process of achieving equilibrium between supply and demand in the market.

At this time, the price of gold traded at $ 1,262.60 (+ 0.30%). Precious metal a little more expensive because of the general weakening of the US dollar. However, a high probability of raising the base interest rate the US Federal Reserve in December inhibits further growth of prices. According to the futures market, is now likely tightening of monetary policy of the central bank US in December amounted to 71.5%, and the previous day. Gold usually cheaper when interest rates rise, because gold does not bring revenue from interest and becomes in this case is less popular compared to the funds, which bring such income.

IV Highlights of today's session I data (time GMT 0)