According to a recent study that was published in the journal Science, researchers suggest extending current social distancing rules until at least 2022.

Why?

To avoid exceeding the critical care capacity of healthcare facilities, social distancing rules might need to be extended for a long period of time to help ease the pressure on the system.

If the social distancing isn't commonplace for that long, they warn that we might see a resurgence of a virus problem like we face now, by 2024.

To determine this outcome researchers came up with a transmission model, taking into account things like immunity, seasonality, and cross-immunity.

Aside from other interventions, they caution that one main factor for success with social distancing is whether or not those care capacities are exceeded and to prevent that from happening social distancing might need to be extended for more than a year.

Keeping Your Distance

So what does that mean for church gatherings? Concerts? And other social gatherings and entertainment options? What about restaurants etc? Researchers still urge that more longitudinal study is needed to better understand the possible transmission potential that might be faced.

For now, many social distancing restrictions and lockdown rules continue to be extended all over the world, some until the end of May or longer.

For many summer events that need to start planning and investing now, months or weeks ahead of time, in order to prepare for those events, they've already had to decide whether or risk going ahead or not.

Some summer festivals and summer events are still hoping that by that time things might be open again, but it will look different if social distancing rules are kept in place. It will also be interesting to see how strictly the state at that point makes it a priority to enforce those restrictions too, if they are extended for a long period of time.

For now, health experts are warning that you shouldn't bet on your summer events going on as usual. You might find a few who are risking it and going ahead with the planning for now, hoping for the best, while others have already called it off.
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