Six months before the Iranian presidential election, Joe Biden’s victory in the US could influence the vote in Iran, where hopes to resume negotiations on the nuclear deal have prompted enthusiasm from moderates and even some hardliners. However, analysts expect that any future talks would be vexed.
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Iranians eagerly awaited the presidential results on November 3. After four years of the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” policies, Biden’s victory could pave the way for more emollient approach on both sides. In theory, that would put the lifting of US sanctions on the cards.
Biden has promised a “credible path back to diplomacy” with Tehran once he enters the White House in January. He said he wanted to return to the 2015 deal signed by his then boss, Barack Obama, but as a “starting point for follow-on negotiations” and on the condition that Iran follows its strictures closely.
In Iran, many believe that Biden’s win will have consequences for the future of their country, which will elect a new president in May as incumbent Hassan Rouhani reaches his term limit. Analysts conjecture that a less hawkish US president could benefit the moderate camp in Iranian politics, which favours diplomatic engagement with Washington.
The American people have spoken.
And the world is watching whether the new leaders will abandon disastrous lawless bullying of outgoing regime—and accept multilateralism, cooperation & respect for law.
Deeds matter most
Iran's record: dignity, interest & responsible diplomacy.
— Javad Zarif (@JZarif) November 8, 2020
“If the US and Iran start to negotiate, Iranian voters will see the possibility of a deal and that could strengthen the moderates,” said Thierry Coville, an Iran specialist at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) in Paris.
But the “time frame is tight”, Coville cautioned. “The Iranian election takes place in May, just four months after Biden takes office.”
Since Washington reimposed sanctions after Donald Trump withdrew the US from the deal in May 2018, Iran has suffered a severe economic crisis, aggravated by the Covid-19 pandemic. The country is one of the hardest hit by the virus outbreak, with an official death toll of 37,000, which analysts believe to be significantly higher.
The moderate camp lost credibility with many voters when it promised a bright future facilitated by an end to US sanctions, only for Trump to withdraw from the deal.
Risk of 'things going sideways'
Rouhani is considered a centrist, but closer to the reformist wing in light of his signing the Iran deal. He said Biden’s victory was a chance for the US to “compensate for its mistakes”.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif wrote on Twitter: “The world is watching whether the new leaders will abandon disastrous lawless bullying of outgoing regime – and accept multilateralism, cooperation and respect for law.”
Coville estimated that the Biden administration would ease some of the embargo meaures. “When Biden takes the presidency, many people from the Obama team, including former State Department officials who negotiated the 2015 deal, are likely to return to the fold,” he said.
“One possible scenario I see as a first step would be for the US to allow the purchase of Iranian oil and the sale of anti-coronavirus drugs to the country – and Iranian officials would be unlikely to refuse such offers,” he continued.
However, putting the nuclear deal back together will be tough. The US has long resented Iran’s interference in other Middle Eastern countries, notably its backing of militias in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
Iran, meanwhile, will not easily forgive the US for killing Qassem Suleimani – the mastermind who headed the Quds Force, the Revolutionary Guard’s special ops unit.
Tehran has gotten back to work on its nuclear programme since Trump reneged on the agreement: Currently its uranium stockpiles are almost eight times the limit in the deal. At the same time, the UN embargo on the sale of conventional weaponry to Iran has expired.
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On a domestic level, Biden would have to justify easing sanctions to the hawkish faction within his own party – not to mention a Senate likely to remain under Republican control.
The US may seek to take advantage of Iran’s weakened economic conditions to try to recreate the nuclear deal.
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But any “follow-on negotiations” Biden might attempt – likely to include talks about Iran’s ballistic missile programme and interference in other Middle Eastern states through support for armed groups – are expected to be fraught.
“As soon as you start opening anything up [. . .] you complicate it and by definition then you’re in a longer negotiation and you run the risk during that period of seeing things go sideways,” Robert Malley, former Middle East director at the Obama White House, now head of the International Crisis Group, told the Financial Times.
Les Iraniens attendaient avec impatience les résultats de l’élection présidentielle américaine du 3 novembre. Ils n’ont pas été déçus. Après quatre années de politique de "pression maximale" de l'administration Trump vis-à-vis de l'Iran, la victoire de Joe Biden pourrait ouvrir la voie à des relations diplomatiques plus apaisées. Elle permet d’envisager un allègement des sanctions américaines contre Téhéran.
Le démocrate, qui a entamé la transition alors que Donald Trump refuse toujours de reconnaître sa défaite, avait déjà indiqué son intention de s'engager sur une "voie crédible pour retourner à la diplomatie" avec Téhéran s'il accédait à la présidence. Il avait également évoqué la possibilité de revenir à l'accord conclu en 2015 sous la présidence de Barack Obama, dont il était le vice-président.
En Iran, beaucoup pensent que la victoire de Joe Biden aura des conséquences sur l'avenir de leur pays, qui s'apprête à se choisir un nouveau président en mai prochain. L’actuel détenteur du poste, l'iranien Hassan Rohani, élu à deux reprises en 2013 et 2017, devra laisser sa place. Le retour d’un démocrate à la Maison Blanche pourrait avantager le camp modéré iranien, ouvertement en faveur d’un dialogue avec les États-Unis.
“Le timing est serré”, relève Thierry Coville, chercheur à l’Iris. “L’élection iranienne a lieu en mai et Joe Biden ne sera investi qu’en janvier si tout va bien”. Un court laps de temps qui rend improbable, avant le scrutin, un rétablissement de l'accord sur le nucléaire iranien, dont Donald Trump est sorti en mai 2018. “Mais si toutefois les États-Unis et l’Iran commencent ne serait-ce qu’à négocier, les électeurs iraniens y verront la possibilité d'un accord. Cet espoir pourrait influencer le vote et renforcer le camp modéré, partisan officiel d’un accord ”, analyse le spécialiste de l’Iran.
"Une occasion de réparer les erreurs du passé"
Depuis le rétablissement des sanctions par Washington, le pays est frappé par une sévère crise économique, aggravée par la pandémie de Covid-19, dont l’Iran est une des principales victimes au Moyen-Orient avec plus de 37 000 morts officiellement recensés. Le camp modéré, qui avait parié sur une relance de l’économie et le dialogue avec les États-Unis, a perdu de sa légitimité auprès de la population.
Aussi, le résultat du scrutin américain pourrait cependant "atténuer l'opinion négative à l’égard de Rohani", a estimé dans la presse iranienne l’une des figures des réformateurs, l'ancien député Mahmoud Sadeghi. D’autres observateurs espèrent par ailleurs que l’élection de Joe Biden aura au moins un effet sur la participation à la présidentielle de mai 2021.
La victoire du démocrate a d’ores et déjà été saluée par Hassan Rohani, qui a déclaré que le changement de direction serait "une occasion pour le prochain gouvernement américain de réparer les erreurs du passé", tandis que son ministre des Affaires étrangères, Mohammad Javad Zarif, a tweeté : "Le monde regarde si les nouveaux dirigeants vont (...) accepter le multilatéralisme, la coopération et le respect du droit".
The American people have spoken.
And the world is watching whether the new leaders will abandon disastrous lawless bullying of outgoing regime—and accept multilateralism, cooperation & respect for law.
Deeds matter most
Iran's record: dignity, interest & responsible diplomacy.
— Javad Zarif (@JZarif) November 8, 2020