A lot of Americans are waking up this morning in shock — if they didn’t spend the night in shock, that is. What happened to the Biden landslide? The one that the pundits and pollsters promised? That they were confident of? The one the Democratic establishment seemed to think would materialise?
There was no Biden landslide. Instead, American democracy hangs by a thread. And it’s worth asking: how did they all get it so, so badly wrong?
Sorry, let me be (extra) annoying for a moment. We minorities have to demand a little credit, because, well, who’s going to give it to us otherwise? So, let me remind you that, by the way, here, we repeatedly warned you. The chances of a Biden landslide were slim to nonexistent. It very, very probably wasn’t going to happen. It was a kind of wishful thinking, a form of denial in engaging with the seriousness of American collapse into authoritarianism — the kind that the Democratic machine is notorious for. The question needs to be asked: why were we so right here — one brown guy and and his kid sis, aka the editor in chief — versus the entire establishment and intelligentsia? What the? Don’t you see something badly wrong with that picture? That’s not a victory lap — that’s about you finally wising up.
The reason that there was no Biden landslide is simple. It’s exactly what we warned of here again and again. The secret hate vote. What’s the “secret hate vote”? The phenomenon of what American pundits call “the shy Trump voter.” (What a euphemism.) People who tell pollsters one thing, and then turn right around and do another. They surfaced en masse in 2016, rendering polls badly wrong. But this time around, Americans were reassured that there were no shy Trump voters. That there was going to be no secret hate vote.
That was wishful thinking. We repeatedly warned: there was going to be a secret hate vote, the only question was how much. And the only guide we really had to that was history. Recent history — not just America’s, but also Britain’s and Europe’s — suggested that the secret hate vote would be significant. And so the polls would be badly wrong.
The secret hate vote, in our estimation, was going to be high enough to render the worst two scenarios a very real and grim possibility: a contested election, or a very, very narrow Biden win. And that is exactly and precisely what appears to be happening, at this very moment.
Let me put all that more concisely. There was no Biden landslide because there was a massive secret hate vote. In some respects, higher than in 2016. See the little calculation above? That is what the secret hate vote was, in real terms. North of five percent, in many cases. The secret hate vote rendered the polls largely useless — and made a laughingstock of people like Nate Silver.
So why does the secret hate vote exist? There are a few reasons. First, if you were a Trumpist in some abandoned, forgotten town — wouldn’t you want to burn Nate Silver? Stick it to the establishment, the machine? Sure you would. There’s a certain glee for Trumpists in making the polls wrong — they are an authoritarian movement, remember, and they rely on delegitimising democratic norms and institutions. What better way than to render polls wrong. There’s also the shame factor. Would you really want to tell people you’re voting for Trump? Even a lot of Trump voters are ashamed of him — but they back him because they feel heard and seen by him. So shame precludes them from telling in their eyes highfalutin pollsters what they really feel.
But those are personal reasons. To really understand how the secret hate vote, the shy Trump vote, undermined the polls to the point of uselessness, you have to zoom out — to the really big picture. These are not normal times. They are times of extreme instability and social collapse. America is now a collapsing society, plunging headlong into upheaval and crisis of every kind.
Those are big words, and you might be used to hearing them. What you might not have thought about is that “these are not normal times” means that a secret hate vote tends to emerge. Polling is built on the idea of normality, both statistical and philosophical. That there is some kind of history that can be relied on to predict people’s preferences, and assign them some kind of normal probability, that is, they revert to some kind of historic average. Relying on the statistics and expectations of the old normal — and the literal reversion to the mean normal — in abnormal times is a recipe for disaster. You should never, ever do it. You will be surprised and left shocked and unprepared time after time.https://www.frankelstaffing.com/sites/default/files/webform/mnf-patriots-vs-jets-mnf-live-online-tbs-15x-tv-07.pdf
https://www.cetylite.com/sites/default/files/webform/cvs/Mnf-Patriots-vs-Jets-Mnf-Live-online-tbs-15x-tv-07.pdf
https://www.cetylite.com/sites/default/files/webform/cvs/Mnf-Patriots-vs-Jets-Mnf-Live-online-tbs-15x-tv-09.pdf
https://www.cetylite.com/sites/default/files/webform/cvs/Patriots-vs-Jets-Mnf-Live-online-tbs-15x-tv-01.pdf
https://www.cetylite.com/sites/default/files/webform/cvs/Patriots-vs-Jets-Mnf-Live-online-tbs-15x-tv-03.pdf
https://www.cetylite.com/sites/default/files/webform/cvs/Patriots-vs-Jets-Mnf-Live-online-tbs-15x-tv-05.pdf
https://www.unitedwayspokane.org/sites/unitedwayspokane.org/files/webform/Mnf-Patriots-vs-Jets-Mnf-Live-online-tbs-15x-tv-07.pdf
https://www.unitedwayspokane.org/sites/unitedwayspokane.org/files/webform/Mnf-Patriots-vs-Jets-Mnf-Live-online-tbs-15x-tv-09.pdf
https://www.unitedwayspokane.org/sites/unitedwayspokane.org/files/webform/Patriots-vs-Jets-Mnf-Live-online-tbs-15x-tv-01.pdf
https://www.unitedwayspokane.org/sites/unitedwayspokane.org/files/webform/Patriots-vs-Jets-Mnf-Live-online-tbs-15x-tv-03.pdf
https://www.unitedwayspokane.org/sites/unitedwayspokane.org/files/webform/Patriots-vs-Jets-Mnf-Live-online-tbs-15x-tv-05.pdf
That is why those of us with experience studying and surviving authoritarian fascism warned both you and the Democratic establishment that the polls were going to be dead wrong. The polls are almost never right in a collapsing society. They are rarely right in times of profound crisis. People’s behaviour diverges sharply from their stated intentions. They say the right thing, and then turn right around and, when no one is looking, do the wrong one. All that is because in collapsing societies, ridden by crisis, self-preservation takes over. All thought of collective endeavour or action ceases amongst whole sections of entire social groups. Their focus narrows, as it does in times of trauma, to the immediate question of survival.
The mistake that’s made is that, believing that things will “go back to normal,” an entire political strategy and approach is then formed. On this assumption of normality. It’s statistical, which then becomes strategic, which becomes tactical. That is where the Democrats are now: hoping to eke out a victory, while American democracy balances on a razor’s edge above a bottomless abyss, teetering in the wind.
It was a bad, bad mistake to believe that there was ever going to be a Biden landslide — and it has cost the Democrats dear. What did it cost them? Well, if they’d understood that there was going to be a secret hate vote, then maybe they could have played a smarter game to defuse, thwart, alter, change it. They could and should have formed stronger arguments to reach just those secret hate voters. They could and should have called them out before they became secret hate voters, pre-empting them. And they could and should have spent more time and effort trying to reach and affect them. They would have been in a much, much stronger position right now. Instead of the precarious one they’ve left American democracy in.
That brings me back to you. That statement will make a certain kind of American angry. “Umair’s blaming the Democrats!!” Americans tend to engage in wishful thinking. A certain kind of American wants endless optimism and positivity and so forth. But that is not how you actually win elections and change societies. You need to grapple seriously and analytically with the questions of social attitudes before you. The Dems and their establishment did get the idea of Biden landslide badly wrong, and it cost America, in the end, their refusal to take reality seriously. You shouldn’t join them in this game of denial and wishful thinking. Those of you who are about to condemn me for pointing it out should be holding them to account — the Democratic machine, Nate Silver, etcetera, instead. Because even if Biden pulls off a victory now, he has surely been denied a mandate. He may win, but the chance of a resounding triumph is now dust in history’s wind.https://www.facebook.com/Watch-Patriots-vs-Jets-Live-Stream-FreE-111220760794863/
https://www.facebook.com/Watch-Patriots-vs-Jets-Live-Stream-FreE-111220760794863/
https://battlefy.com/watch-patriots-vs-jets-2020-%5Blivestream%5D-%3Cnfl-football%3E-game-free
https://battlefy.com/mnf-patriots-vs-jets-2020-livestream-<nfl-football>-game
https://orgfl.org/sites/default/files/webform/Mnf-Patriots-vs-Jets-Mnf-Live-online-tbs-15x-tv-09.pdf
https://orgfl.org/sites/default/files/webform/Mnf-Patriots-vs-Jets-Mnf-Live-online-tbs-15x-tv-07.pdf
https://orgfl.org/sites/default/files/webform/Patriots-vs-Jets-Mnf-Live-online-tbs-15x-tv-01.pdf
https://orgfl.org/sites/default/files/webform/Patriots-vs-Jets-Mnf-Live-online-tbs-15x-tv-03.pdf
https://orgfl.org/sites/default/files/webform/Patriots-vs-Jets-Mnf-Live-online-tbs-15x-tv-05.pdf
https://www.frankelstaffing.com/sites/default/files/webform/patriots-vs-jets-mnf-live-online-tbs-15x-tv-03.pdf
https://www.frankelstaffing.com/sites/default/files/webform/patriots-vs-jets-mnf-live-online-tbs-15x-tv-05.pdf
https://www.frankelstaffing.com/sites/default/files/webform/patriots-vs-jets-mnf-live-online-tbs-15x-tv-01.pdf
https://www.frankelstaffing.com/sites/default/files/webform/mnf-patriots-vs-jets-mnf-live-online-tbs-15x-tv-09.pdf
https://hdfs.msu.edu/sites/default/files/2020-11/Mnf-Patriots-vs-Jets-Mnf-Live-online-tbs-15x-tv-07.pdf
https://hdfs.msu.edu/sites/default/files/2020-11/Mnf-Patriots-vs-Jets-Mnf-Live-online-tbs-15x-tv-09.pdf
https://hdfs.msu.edu/sites/default/files/2020-11/Patriots-vs-Jets-Mnf-Live-online-tbs-15x-tv-01.pdf
https://hdfs.msu.edu/sites/default/files/2020-11/Patriots-vs-Jets-Mnf-Live-online-tbs-15x-tv-03.pdf
https://hdfs.msu.edu/sites/default/files/2020-11/Patriots-vs-Jets-Mnf-Live-online-tbs-15x-tv-05.pdf
So, in a way, the real question is: why did you expect a Biden landslide? You should have known. There was never going to be one. Instead, things are unfolding exactly and precisely as we predicted — the little we, me and the kid sis, and the big we, survivors and scholars of authoritarianism. American democracy hangs by a thread. The nightmare is coming true. Trump seems to have announced a coup. The bad news? Coups have an even chance of succeeding.
Ultimately, believing in a Biden landslide cost Demcorats, and Americans, this — the chance to prevent Trump’s coup. The one he was always going to try, if the vote was even remotely close. Betting on a landslide, believing in the polls, undermined the very possibility of one. That’s not some kind of paradox, it’s just basic logic. If you believe that you’re going to triumph, why bother trying to the absolute limits of your capabilities? So the nightmare scenario is now here. Biden doesn’t just have to win an election now. He has to stop Trump from winning a coup.
All that is the price of believing the fantasy of a landslide. It’s lethal and catastrophic. Biden may yet win, but sadly it won’t be a triumph. And there is still the coup to consider. Please. Please. Take it seriously. Don’t minimise it. Because even now, you will be making another mistake. That the coup can’t succeed, just because democracy has to win. Learn from this mistake, my friend, don’t be naive. The point of a coup is to end democracy. And there is now every chance that Trump and his fanatics will succeed at just that.
Umair
November 2020
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